Sei's current market attention is low, and its price is at a historically relative low. Does this actually mean a buying opportunity? We will objectively analyze whether Sei is worth investing in from the perspectives of on-chain data, token economics, and market structure.

First, some basic data: Sei currently has a market capitalization of $2 billion, having increased by 87% over the past three months, outperforming BTC, ETH, and Sol. However, if we extend the timeframe, we find that since August 2023, Sei has actually decreased by 35% relative to other small altcoins, with a year-long relative decline reaching 55%.

Why does this situation of 'price rising, yet relative performance declining' occur?

The core issue lies in the token economics.

Sei's circulating supply has been continuously expanding, with the team gradually cashing out, private placement token unlocks, and continuous releases from the ecological reserve pool. All these factors mean that selling pressure on Sei in the market has been increasing. If the growth rate of demand does not keep up with the growth rate of supply, the price will struggle to strengthen and will continue to depreciate relative to other assets.

Looking at the actual on-chain usage, the data is not optimistic. In the past 24 hours, Sei's on-chain trading volume was only $20 million, compared to Arbitrum's $600 million and Base's $16 billion, indicating that Sei's activity is very low.

Although Sei's TVL has reached $600 million, if calculated in Sei terms, its growth has stagnated since April.

Key indicators such as stablecoin market cap have also shown no significant growth.

In other words, Sei, as a blockchain, currently has usage and ecosystem activity that far from supports its $20 billion valuation!

Sei's spot trading volume in the last 24 hours was $47 million, far below its perpetual contract trading volume of $134 million. This means that the short-term price is mainly driven by futures rather than real demand.

Currently, the open interest of outstanding contracts is at a high level and is positively correlated with the spot price. Once contract holdings decline, the price is likely to drop as well. The funding rate fluctuates between positive and negative, indicating that there are differing views in the market regarding Sei, which is not as consistently bullish as most coins.

From a relative valuation perspective, Sei is currently close to the upper boundary of a descending channel that has lasted for more than a year. Whether it can break through remains to be observed. The downward space to the support level is about 32%, while the upward space to the resistance level is only about 9%, making the risk-return ratio unappealing.

Given the continuous inflation of the Sei token, low on-chain activity, and high contract holdings, the risk of chasing Sei at the moment is quite significant.

A more prudent strategy might be that if Sei experiences another sharp decline relative to other small coins in the future, such as dropping over 30%, that might be a better time to buy the dip.

In summary, Sei is currently at a critical crossroads; the apparent price increase cannot mask its ongoing weakness in the market, sluggish on-chain ecosystem growth, and the core dilemma of continuous token inflation.

High contract holdings, divergent market sentiment, and weak fundamental support all indicate that chasing Sei at the current price level carries considerable risk. Instead of blindly pursuing so-called low-position opportunities, it is better to remain patient and wait for genuine entry signals, either through structural improvements in the token economy or through significant price corrections that show clear oversold opportunities.

In the crypto market, sometimes doing nothing is a strategy in itself. Is Sei your opportunity? The answer is not in the K-line, but in the data of the token's economic model and real on-chain activities.

Remember, investing is not gambling; it is data-driven decision-making. Protecting your principal is always more important than chasing uncertain returns.