Aero is the largest decentralized exchange on the Base blockchain. In the last 24 hours, the total trading volume on the Base chain was 1.9 billion USD, of which Aero contributed 845 million USD, a significant proportion. In terms of liquidity, AERO is also the largest protocol token in the Base ecosystem, with a total on-chain value of approximately 78 million USD.
Although the data seems impressive, we have also identified some warning signals after thorough analysis.
First, although the number of AERO's holding addresses is continuously increasing, including both retail and whale users, the actual usage data of the platform is not optimistic. Its TVL has been on a downward trend since reaching a peak of 1.2 billion USD in December last year, and even when calculated in Ethereum terms, the TVL has also been continuously shrinking since October last year. In addition, key indicators such as platform trading volume and number of transactions have not shown significant growth this year, and even experienced a decline.
What is more concerning is that AERO faces ongoing inflation pressure. If the demand for platform usage and token demand cannot keep up with the continuously released token supply, it will be difficult for the price to achieve long-term growth.
Unlike BTC and ETH, AERO does not have external buying support such as ETFs or institutional funds; its price performance completely depends on the actual growth of the ecosystem.
From a relative valuation perspective, AERO is still in a clear downward channel relative to ETH and the entire small coin market, consistently making lower highs and lows. If it cannot effectively break through the current trading range, its risk-reward ratio is not very favorable.
In the short term, AERO's price shows a high positive correlation with the open interest (OI) of the perpetual contract market. Current OI is at a historical high, and once leveraged funds withdraw, it may put significant pressure on spot prices.
Of course, Aero is not without potential catalysts; the market has been looking forward to Coinbase possibly integrating decentralized trading features in the future. If this becomes a reality, it will bring significant traffic and trading demand to Aero. However, so far, on-chain data indicates that this expectation has not yet translated into actual data growth.
In summary, Aero has a leading position and advantages in the Base ecosystem, but behind its shiny data also lie risks such as declining TVL, token inflation, and reliance on high-leverage contracts.
For traders, the key is not simply to judge bullish or bearish, but to continuously track several core signals:
Will the positive news such as Coinbase integration truly materialize and drive fundamental improvements?
Can the platform mitigate token inflation pressure through mechanism adjustments?
Can the entire Base ecosystem continue to thrive and provide basic support for AERO?
