#美联储降息预期 The advisor discusses hot topics:

Oh, by the way, it seems that Chuanzi and the Federal Reserve are still at odds, with Chuanzi insisting on a quick rate cut. He just wants to give the market a boost, but the Fed is still being dovish. They keep talking about stable inflation and economic resilience, a whole lot of nonsense.

JPMorgan has directly pointed out that even if the rate cut is implemented in September, it may be a case of good news being fully priced in. The key is to watch the dot plot, as that is the real roadmap for the future.

If they can really cut 75 basis points this year and then another 200 basis points in 2026, the market will definitely be overjoyed. But if it's just a symbolic cut of a few dozen points, the market will turn sour in no time, and pessimistic sentiment will be rampant.

To put it bluntly, the current focus is not on the labor market at all; that suspense has long been gone. I also mentioned in my analysis yesterday that the real big events are still this week's PPI and CPI data. Even if inflation rises in the short term, the market believes the economy won't hold up; the Federal Reserve has to cut interest rates.

But what if in September they really come out with no interest rate cuts? Wow, that scene would be absolutely spectacular. Just imagine, even the face of the former president would be twisted from anger, and he might directly flip the table. Thinking of this, I can't help but laugh; if they really stick to no cuts, just imagine what the scene would look like.

Back to the market, these two weeks have indeed been incredibly boring. The market is lifeless; I can't even find an opportunity to write something. But today I still have to say, the big pie has already tried to chew on the supply zone from 112.6K to 113.4K for the third time on the 4-hour level.

The first two times it didn't break through, but the strange thing is that the pullback is also soft and hasn't broken lower lows; this is actually a positive signal. Last night it tried again, but the result was still stuck.

The key is that this time even small-level new highs haven't been achieved, which puts tonight's focus on whether it can break through the hurdle from 112.6K to 113.4K.

If it can go straight up, the market will have broken through at a small level, and it will be considered to have firmly stepped on the middle track of the channel. The next target is very clear, first look at 114.7K, and then it can still touch the supply zone of 116.5 to 117.5K.

And now the optimistic part is that the big pie has been standing on the middle track for longer and longer, indicating that the channel has a chance to gradually flatten. Only when the channel flattens can a real rebound occur.

The sad part is that although prices are no longer falling, they are just barely holding on, and haven't broken through any decent supply zone. This indicates that bullish funds haven't entered, and the bearish positions haven't been completely consumed; the pulling feeling remains.

And I believe that the big pie this week will have a weaker rebound; after the interest rate cut boots drop, I will likely turn bearish. Unless the data and attitude are extremely favorable, otherwise, the market will collapse emotionally.

Looking at Ethereum, it's still dragging around near 4300, mixing in the range from 4250 to 4300 for two and a half days; last night it surged but was kicked down by the market. If it can stabilize at 4250 this afternoon, the short-term still leans bullish.

After all, the amplitude of fluctuations is getting smaller and smaller, and a turning point is just around the corner. The key level is from 4350 to 4380; as long as it can close above, it will immediately turn strong. Otherwise, it will have to retrace to 4250, and in extreme cases, it might even sweep below 4100.

Master sees the trend:

Resistance level reference:

Second resistance level: 113200

First resistance level: 112300

Support level reference:

First support level: 110.8-111.3

Second support level: 110000

The short-term support zone for the big pie is from 110.8K to 111.3K, considered a box protection level. There is also an upward trend line below, and pay attention to the 200-day moving average on the 1-hour level, which is roughly around 112K.

If it rebounds to around 112K, be careful that it might be pressed back down again. So we still need to see if it can gradually raise the low points; otherwise, in the short term, it still remains a pile of shi.

If it can't hold the rising trend line, the 200-day moving average will also be lost. Then don't hesitate to look at 110K below, the big pit below will open in minutes. Before the CPI and PPI results are out, the market won't show direction. It's just repeated pulling back and forth, don't get washed out.

First resistance 112.3K, last time it rebounded here and failed, and it was also the previous high point on September 4th. So now I don't want to think about a V-shaped reversal; only if it can hold the trend line will there be a next step.

Second resistance 113.2, the momentum is so weak now, whether it can raise the low point is the key. Even if it reaches 113K, we still have to see tonight's external news for support; otherwise, it is unlikely in the short term.

First support 110.8–111.3K, a short-term bottom made after a long weekend grind. If it breaks again, disappointed selling will come out even harder; then we can only see if the 200-day moving average can hold.

Second support 110K, this is purely a psychological barrier. It was previously held once; if it breaks again, it could directly lead to accelerated declines. If the rising trend line and the 200-day moving average break together, a sharp drop in the short term is unavoidable.


Today's market should move less and observe more. Yesterday looked like it was going to pull up, but in the end, it couldn't hold and fell down. Now it's time to flexibly switch between long and short; don't hold on stubbornly. The market gives no opportunity for medium to long-term positions; holding on stubbornly is just sending people to their doom.

9.9 master wave band pre-buried:

Long entry reference: 110800-111300 range, enter in batches; target: 112300-113200

Short entry reference: not to be referenced for now

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you must keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few observations of the market. This market is filled with performance artists; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it look like they 'always catch tops and bottoms', but in reality, it's just hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, self-consistent, and withstands scrutiny, not just jumping in when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dream maker!