#美联储降息预期 The advisor discusses hot topics:

It's Monday, so I'll start with the macro highlights. The PPI on September 10th and CPI on the 11th are the two most important data points before the Americans cut interest rates. With employment in such poor shape, the market is hoping for a softer inflation data to justify a reduction of 50 or even 75 basis points within the year.

But if the CPI continues to be high, it will ignite a stagflation farce, and the market will immediately collapse psychologically. And over the past few days, Trump has been acting like a madman, constantly attacking Powell, shouting that interest rates are too high, which basically means he wants to force the Federal Reserve to back down. The real confrontation will be at the interest rate meeting on the 18th of this month, where Trump and Powell will face off for the first time.

Back to the market, don't think too much about Bitcoin for now. The weekly line barely closed around 111K, and if the weekly line next week closes below it, then the next target will likely be 98K, and it can't escape.

To put it bluntly, the market sentiment is currently weak, and the weekend spot premium has also dropped. The market has rebounded a bit, but it is still spinning in a dangerous zone. To break free, it must go up to 113.5k, establishing a higher high; otherwise, don't think about any trend reversal for now.

Don't forget that after the last spike and blood-sucking, it fell for three consecutive weeks, and last week it broke a new low. This structure is a sideways decline, and I won't accept any rebuttal. The gap on the weekly line at 116.8k will eventually be filled, and the order block support zone at 105-98k is where the market is grinding between these two coordinates. The direction is already very clear; overall, it is still moving in a sideways downward rhythm. The current rebound is just finding liquidity to cut you off.

Ethereum is even more frustrating; on Sunday, it completely failed to rise, stuck around 4280 for two days. It gets smashed when it goes up, and it gets supported when it goes down, making it annoying. I would rather it first rush to 4380-4420 and then smash down, at least it would be more straightforward.

Currently, the liquidity of Ethereum is stuck at 4515 and 4206, and the price will eventually touch it; it's either a breakthrough or a cut loss. But the key point is that this interval is a hunting ground, and my view is very straightforward: first pull up, then go down.

In addition, Bitcoin is still stubbornly clinging to the short-term holder realization price; historically, it feels like this place can't hold for long. Combined with the tug-of-war of Ethereum, there will definitely be major actions this week........

Master looks at the trend:

Resistance level reference:

First resistance level: 112500

First resistance level: 111600

Support level reference:

First support level: 110.7-9K

Second support level: 110000

Short-term support at 107.7~9K cannot be broken; otherwise, this little rebound is just a joke. The resistance of the ascending trend line that was broken in the chart is at 111.3K, and we can only stand firm and retest after breaking through. The 200MA trend during the day is also crucial; right now, it's a box-style fluctuation.

First resistance at 111.6K; if the previous high of 111.3K is not broken, then there is no way to get past this level. Only by breaking through can there be hope to refresh the short-term high; otherwise, it is all resistance. The second resistance at 112.5K is a key short-term resistance; if the 112K test fails, disappointment selling will definitely occur.


First support 110.7~110.9K must hold to keep the hope of a rebound; if it breaks, the short-term trends of 60 and 120MA will need to be restarted. Second support at 110K; pay attention to the hourly level 200MA, and the low points must be raised. If there is a short-term crash, this place will be the lifeline for a short-term rebound.

9.8 Master’s wave segment pre-set:

Long entry reference: enter long in batches in the 110000-110700 range. Target: 111600-112000

Short entry reference: enter short in batches in the 111600-112500 range. Target: 110700

If you really want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following along, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they show long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they 'always catch the top and bottom,' but in reality, they are all just making late calls. The bloggers worth paying attention to must have a trading logic that is consistent, self-coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and fragmented screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dream maker!