Global bond markets are collapsing. It seems like great news for Bitcoin
Analysis of new data
Bitcoin is back in action, trading somewhere around $111,000. It seems like everything is as usual, but this time a real drama is unfolding behind the scenes: global government bond markets, which are considered the safest asset, are simply cracking.
Returns are rising worldwide: in the USA, Europe, Japan, and the UK. Japanese 30-year bonds are hitting records, and the US debt has increased by $1 trillion in two months, reaching $37.3 trillion.
It may seem irrelevant, but Bitcoin historically behaves like a rebellious safe-haven asset when the traditional financial system starts to malfunction.
How it was before
In 2013, during the "taper tantrum" (the tantrum over the tapering of QE), investors were fleeing from government debt en masse. What did Bitcoin do? It soared from $100 to $1,000.
In 2021, amid inflation fears, BTC surged to $65,000.
Of course, this does not always happen. For example, in 2018, when central banks began to aggressively tighten policies, investors were dumping risky assets, and Bitcoin fell by 80%.
But the current situation resembles 2013 and 2021: government debt is rising, trust in currency is falling, and among Bitcoin investors, the trend of "HODL" is strengthening — they simply do not intend to sell their coins.
Short-term and long-term analysis
Bitcoin has finally broken out of its descending channel and is now consolidating around $110,819, confidently holding above support at $109,500.
RSI is at 56, indicating growth but without "overheating."
The nearest ceiling that needs to be broken is at $112,600. If it falls, the next targets are $115,600 and $117,500.
In the long term, things are still more exciting. Bitcoin continues its movement in a large upward channel that started from the very bottom of 2022. As long as the price is above $95,000 (where the 50-week moving average is), the "supercycle" remains in force.
Fibonacci analysis promises us targets of $171,055 and $231,241. And for the particularly optimistic — even all $290,000.
Overall, while the global economy balances on the brink of collapse, Bitcoin is simply updating its price benchmarks.
