Bit_Rase

Bitcoin’s sharp drop on Tuesday underscored another pivotal moment in a market still struggling after weeks of volatility. The cryptocurrency fell below $102,000 in U.S. trading hours, breaking the lows set during the October 10 correction and signaling a return to deeply bearish sentiment. This wasn’t just another dip — it was a decisive move that stripped away short-term optimism and revealed the raw fear driving traders away from risk.

The decline was rapid and forceful. Bitcoin lost an additional 4.5% over 24 hours, extending weekly losses to nearly 12%. At around $101,900, it reached its weakest level since late June, erasing nearly two months of gradual recovery. Attempts to bounce back in recent days repeatedly met strong selling pressure, and the failure to hold above $104,000 triggered fresh liquidations.

Ethereum wasn’t spared either. Ether dropped below $3,410, a three-month low, with today’s decline alone erasing almost 6%. The broader market followed suit: XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano all fell between 5% and 7%, bringing weekly losses across altcoins to 15–20%. This synchronized sell-off highlighted broad risk aversion rather than rotational trading or market indecision.

Crypto equities reflected similar weakness. MicroStrategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, dropped 5% to levels unseen since April. Coinbase and Galaxy Digital saw comparable declines as investors reduced exposure to the digital asset ecosystem. The correlation between crypto prices and crypto-linked equities, once considered speculative, is now more pronounced as sentiment contracts.

The Fear & Greed Index further confirms market sentiment, plunging to 21 — the lowest reading since early April, signaling “extreme fear.” Panic-driven volume, mounting liquidations, and social chatter shifting from bullish optimism to disbelief underline the intensity of the sell-off. Traders targeting $120K just two weeks ago now question whether $100K can hold.

Adding pressure is the unwinding of the “Bitcoin treasury bubble.” Companies that had aggressively accumulated BTC for treasury purposes are selling to manage liabilities. Paris-based Sequans recently offloaded 970 BTC, signaling that other institutional holders may follow suit. This shift from long-term buyers to net sellers adds psychological weight to the market downturn.

Liquidity is thinning across major exchanges. Spot volume remains high but is dominated by exits rather than fresh inflows. Derivatives data shows negative funding rates, reflecting short dominance, while open interest cools as traders de-risk. Momentum traders step back, long-term investors hesitate, and remaining dip buyers adopt defensive positions.

Macro conditions further complicate matters. U.S. equities, particularly in tech, face renewed selling pressure amid rising AI infrastructure costs and weaker corporate guidance. Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq persists, with digital assets behaving as high-beta extensions of broader markets.

Technically, Bitcoin balances on a critical psychological edge. The $100,000 level represents a convergence of leverage, sentiment, and long-term structure. A breakdown below this zone could expose supports near $92,000–$95,000, while bulls must reclaim $106,000–$108,000 quickly to prevent further downtrend acceleration.

Analysts urge caution. This phase may represent a “capitulation flush” that historically precedes stronger base formation. Bitcoin’s most significant rallies often follow extreme fear, not euphoria. Patience is essential as the market digests the unwind amid tightening liquidity and macro pressures.

For now, speculative excess has been drained, and traders are returning to fundamentals. Bitcoin’s long-term narrative remains intact, but the path to $100K and beyond is proving turbulent. The market is in a phase where emotion outweighs logic, testing conviction candle by candle.

Recovery depends less on hype and more on resilience. If the $100K zone holds and new catalysts emerge — ETF inflows, institutional interest, or macro stabilization — the foundation for recovery could rebuild rapidly. All eyes remain on $100,000: the line between fear and faith.

$BTC

Bitcoin’s steep decline on Tuesday highlighted another critical juncture for a market struggling to regain footing after weeks of volatility. The flagship cryptocurrency dropped below $102,000 during U.S. trading hours, breaching the lows from the October 10 correction and signaling a return to deeply bearish sentiment. This wasn’t a routine dip; it was a decisive move that stripped away short-term optimism, exposing the underlying fear driving traders away from risk.

The fall was swift and forceful. In just 24 hours, Bitcoin lost another 4.5%, extending its weekly decline to nearly 12%. At approximately $101,900, it reached its weakest point since late June, erasing nearly two months of gradual recovery that had maintained the bullish structure through October. Attempts to rebound over the past days repeatedly hit selling pressure, and the failure to hold above $104,000 appears to have triggered a fresh wave of liquidations.

Ethereum followed suit. Ether fell below $3,410, a level not seen in three months, with today’s drop alone erasing nearly 6% of its value. The broader market mirrored the downward momentum: XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano each declined between 5% and 7% over the same period. This synchronized sell-off underscores that the market is experiencing broad risk aversion, rather than rotational trading or indecision.

Crypto-linked equities reflected similar weakness. MicroStrategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, saw shares drop 5%, touching levels not seen since April. Coinbase and Galaxy Digital mirrored these losses as investors trimmed exposure across the digital asset ecosystem. The correlation between crypto prices and crypto-focused equities, once speculative, now appears more pronounced as sentiment tightens.

The Fear & Greed Index confirms the market mood, plunging to 21 — its lowest since early April, a reading classified as “extreme fear.” Heavy volumes, mounting liquidations, and shifting social sentiment from bullish optimism to disbelief highlight the intensity of the current downturn. Traders previously targeting $120K are now questioning whether $100K can hold.

Adding to the pressure is the unwinding of corporate Bitcoin positions. Companies that had aggressively accumulated BTC as treasury assets are now selling to address liabilities. Paris-based Sequans recently sold 970 BTC to reduce debt, signaling potential institutional retrenchment. This shift from long-term buyers to sellers adds a psychological overhang, compounding market anxiety.

Liquidity is also tightening. Spot trading remains active but is dominated by panic-driven exits rather than fresh inflows. Derivatives data shows further negative funding rates, reflecting short dominance, while open interest declines as traders de-risk amid choppy conditions. Overall, momentum traders are stepping back, long-term investors are hesitant, and remaining dip buyers adopt defensive strategies.

Macro conditions exacerbate the situation. U.S. equities, particularly tech stocks, are under renewed pressure amid rising AI-related costs and weaker corporate guidance. Bitcoin’s historical correlation with the Nasdaq remains relevant, with the cryptocurrency often mirroring tech market downturns. Recent patterns reaffirm that crypto continues to behave as a high-beta extension of broader risk assets.

Technically, Bitcoin now balances on a critical psychological edge. The $100,000 level represents a convergence of leverage, sentiment, and long-term structure. A breakdown below this threshold could expose deeper support zones near $92,000–$95,000, which previously served as accumulation areas. Conversely, reclaiming $106,000–$108,000 is crucial for bulls to prevent further downtrend momentum. Until then, the structure remains fragile.

Analysts urge measured patience. This phase could represent a “capitulation flush,” historically preceding stronger base formations and subsequent rallies. Bitcoin’s most significant recoveries have often followed extreme fear rather than periods of euphoria. The market requires time to digest the current unwind amid tightening liquidity and broader macro pressure.

For now, speculative excess has drained, forcing traders to return to fundamentals. Bitcoin’s long-term narrative as a store of value remains intact, but the path back to $100K and higher is proving turbulent. The market is in a classic crypto phase where emotion outweighs logic, testing conviction with each candlestick.

Recovery hinges on resilience, not hype. If the $100K zone holds and new catalysts emerge — such as ETF inflows, renewed institutional interest, or macro stabilization — a foundation for recovery could rebuild rapidly. Until then, all eyes remain on $100,000: the line between fear and faith.

$BTC

A growing narrative in the digital asset space frames every regulatory move or investigation as an attack on the entire industry. While emotionally charged, that perspective misses the mark. Oversight isn’t inherently a threat to innovation — in many cases, it exists to protect users from bad actors exploiting crypto’s openness for personal gain. This is exactly the context behind the recent push to bring accountability to crypto ATMs.

Once hailed as a gateway for mainstream adoption, crypto ATMs allowed anyone to buy or sell digital assets easily, bypassing complex exchanges. Over time, however, inconsistent compliance standards transformed parts of this ecosystem into a haven for fraud, scams, and untraceable transactions. Regulators and prosecutors are not targeting these machines out of hostility toward crypto — they are acting on consistent evidence that some operators are using them to defraud consumers and launder illicit funds.

As Katie Biber and Dominique Little from Paradigm observe, the louder some companies protest regulation, the clearer it becomes that something is amiss. Defensive rhetoric framed as “freedom” or “innovation” often masks a simple reluctance to meet basic transparency requirements. When legitimate operators ignore misconduct within their ranks, it undermines the industry’s credibility and invites broader, stricter regulatory responses.

Leaders like Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird demonstrate that responsible oversight and pro-crypto advocacy are not mutually exclusive. Despite criticism, Bird has supported the industry in key moments — from joining multi-state lawsuits challenging the SEC’s overreach to signing amicus briefs in pivotal crypto-related court cases. Her approach reflects a desire to see crypto thrive responsibly, not a hostility toward the space.

The reality is that the crypto ATM issue isn’t about banning innovation; it’s about enforcing accountability. Systems that allow anonymous cash-to-crypto exchanges with minimal verification are precisely the loopholes that bad actors exploit. When these operations facilitate scams, the consequences ripple across the industry, eroding user confidence, investor trust, and policymaker support — all critical for crypto’s long-term growth.

Ironically, addressing these weaknesses actually strengthens the ecosystem. Credible, secure infrastructure makes adoption and innovation easier, not harder. Regulation, when thoughtfully implemented, is not an enemy of progress — it provides the foundation upon which sustainable growth can stand.

Crypto has matured to the point where self-regulation is no longer optional. With market sizes ballooning and public trust fragile, leaving bad actors unchecked is a risk the entire ecosystem cannot afford. When the industry fails to police itself, regulators must step in — and in those cases, even legitimate players often bear the cost.

It’s time for builders, investors, and advocates to distinguish between protecting innovation and enabling misconduct. Supporting transparency doesn’t make anyone less pro-crypto; it makes the space more credible. Ignoring fraud, hiding behind ideology, or framing every inquiry as an attack weakens the argument for mainstream adoption.

Crypto’s future rests on trust — from users, regulators, and the broader financial system. That trust can only be earned through accountability. Cleaning up internal weaknesses isn’t anti-crypto. It’s the most pro-crypto action the industry can take.

Let's talk about the valuation expectations of momentum
momentum (MMT) is about to go live on spot and has seen news of its upcoming launch on upbit. It has already launched and let's discuss its valuation logic.
➤ First, let’s talk about the background of the project
Many people do not know that the investment lineup of momentum includes top exchanges (OKX, Coinbase, gate, kucoin, etc.), which is also the reason it can be launched on so many exchanges. In addition to this, there are top institutions (Jump, varys, Redpoint China, etc.), as well as the two major public chains Sui and Aptos, and the co-founder of Sui, Adeniyi.
Founder ChefWen was also a colleague in the meta stablecoin department with Sui and Aptos at that time.
Since April, Momentum's TVL has been growing rapidly, far exceeding other projects during the same period, becoming the first Dex on Sui. It is also the first token in the Sui ecosystem to directly launch on Binance and Upbit, even surpassing Sui's own DEEP, WAL, and NS in terms of visibility. Previously, the first ecological project on the Sui chain was Walrus, with an FDV of $1 billion and a circulating market value of $300 million. Based on valuation, it should benchmark against WAL, so the valuation should be $1 billion. There may be short-term discounts, but in the medium to long term, it can still be dynamically estimated based on Walrus's heavyweight.
Data shows that Momentum's TVL has surpassed $270M, with cumulative trading volume exceeding $26B and user numbers over 2 million.
But the real core is the protocol revenue: the accumulated protocol fees have exceeded $15M, and the annualized protocol fees have reached $45M! In the future, all these earnings will be 100% allocated to $veMMT. The TGE circulation accounts for 20.4% of the total circulation, and stakeholders must lock up for at least 12 months. The initial circulating supply is very small, but the dividend from earnings is not insignificant.
➤ Innovations of the project
The core of the ve(3,3) mechanism, simply put, is that 100% of the protocol fees are given to $veMMT holders who participate in governance voting.
What about regular DEX? Most fees flow to LPs (liquidity providers). What difference does this make?
Income Anchoring: In Momentum, if you hold $veMMT and participate in voting, you become a 'shareholder' of the protocol, capturing 100% of the protocol's revenue. LPs earn ince
ntives, not fees.
Long-term lockup: $veMMT must be obtained through long-term locking of $MMT , and it decays over time. This directly pressures speculators and incentivizes participants who genuinely believe in the protocol's long-term value.
Precise incentives: The liquidity provider (project party) that wants to incentivize must provide 'bribery' rewards to $veMMT holders to get them to vote for themselves. This creates a dual revenue model of bribery + fees, deeply binding the governors to the growth of the protocol's TVL, thoroughly solving the dilemma of 'mining and selling', making liquidity more sticky.
Differences from other Dex
➤ Analysis from the perspective of circulating chips
Momentum is conducting new offerings on Buidlpad and Binance wallet, with Buidlpad's valuation at $250-350 million (price $0.25-$0.35). Historically, the worst new offerings have roughly doubled, so the expected valuation is around $500-700 million. Binance's new offering valuation is $100 million ($0.1), with the last YB being 8 times, estimating around $800 million.
Additionally, one more thing to consider is that the accumulated protocol fees have exceeded $15M, with TGE circulation accounting for 20.4% of the total circulation. Stakeholders must lock up for at least 12 months, and future earnings will be 100% allocated to $veMMT. The initial circulating supply is very small, but the dividend from earnings is not insignificant. In the short term, due to market conditions, the valuation may be low, but I am optimistic about Sui's first ecological project in the long run. If the valuation at launch is low, below the new offering valuation, it is entirely worth considering participating in $veMMT to earn the project's long-term cash flow.
$MMT
$YB $WAL