The multi-timeframe signals for BTC are very clear, overall leaning towards 'cautious bearish', but there is a short-term need for a rebound. Keep an eye on the patterns and key levels when operating, and don't let small fluctuations disrupt your rhythm.
From a cyclical logic perspective, the core signal for the larger direction is at the 15-day line — there are already signs of a 'top divergence', with prices not making new highs while indicators are gradually declining, which is the main basis for short-term bearishness; the 2-day line is in the 'final rebound' phase, with limited rebound strength, more like 'gathering strength for the bears', and not a signal for trend reversal.
Looking at the short cycle, the rhythm needs to be analyzed in detail: the 2, 3, 4, and 6-hour lines are all in a 'bottom consolidation', especially the 6-hour line, which has been trading sideways near 111000 for three consecutive K-lines, without breaking support or pushing against resistance; only the 2-hour line has an 'invisible rebound' — it seems to have not risen much, but the MACD red bars are quietly expanding, indicating a short-term need for a small rebound, but this rebound is unlikely to break strong resistance and is more suitable for 'finding high short positions on the rebound'.
Key levels must be remembered; these are the 'lifelines' for operation:
The upper resistance is divided into three levels: 112400 is the first level of pressure, a rebound to this level will likely face resistance, as the rebound momentum of the 2-day line is limited; if it unexpectedly breaks through, 113365 and 114208 are stronger resistances, especially 114208, which corresponds to the previous high during a pullback. To break through, there must be significant capital entering, otherwise it's just a 'trap to lure in buyers'.
The lower support is divided into four levels: 110725 is the first line of defense in the short term; if it breaks, watch for 109100, which is the lower edge of the recent consolidation platform; further down, 108300 is the 'emotional support'. If it breaks this level, it may trigger panic among retail investors; the most critical is the support at 105300 on the 3-day line, which serves as the 'safety cushion' for the mid-term trend. As long as this level holds, it cannot be considered completely broken.
Market sentiment and capital flows should also be taken into account; do not go against the main trend:
The overall BTC long-short ratio is 1.78, with actual capital ratio at 53:47, and the overall long-short ratio is 51:49 — It seems that the bulls still have the upper hand, but the advantage is shrinking, and the long-short divergence is increasing. This is the time when 'fake-outs to lure in buyers followed by a drop' are most likely to occur.
The panic index is at 51, in the 'neutral zone', neither at extreme panic (suitable for bottom fishing) nor at extreme greed (suitable for profit-taking), indicating that the market is still in a 'wait-and-see period' with no clear direction, so do not add positions recklessly before a clear trend emerges.
Finally, I want to emphasize two iron rules to avoid making basic mistakes:
Don’t act without a pattern: for example, wait for the confirmation of a top divergence on the 15-day line (price breaks down + indicators decline in sync), or a rebound on the 2-hour line meets resistance (after reaching 112400, it drops sharply), then enter the market. Don’t guess the direction based on feelings.
Don't open positions without stop-loss: for short positions, it's advisable to set a stop-loss above 114208; for long positions, set a stop-loss below 108300. Even if you think 'it won't break', you must set a stop-loss — cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and if it breaks, you might get stuck in deep waters without a stop-loss.
(The above content is only a technical analysis of the market and does not constitute any investment advice; operations must be undertaken at your own risk.)
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