ETH is stuck at the 'critical juncture' of 4511, with the pressure level of 4689 like a mountain above and the support level of 4372 teetering below. This is not an ordinary fluctuation; it is the 'last calm before the storm' before the market changes! If you miss the rhythm, you may either miss the last opportunity to get on the bull market or be harvested as fodder by institutions — understanding the technicals and news front is necessary to avoid risks and seize opportunities.

I. Technical front hides danger: 1-hour K-line 'volume contraction and sideways movement', a change is imminent.

Staring at the 1-hour K-line, there are signals of danger and opportunity intertwined. A moment's inattention could lead to stumbling into a pitfall:


  • Moving averages flatten + volume shrinks to the extreme: The MA5 and MA10 moving averages have been moving flatly together for a while, indicating a temporary 'stalemate' between bulls and bears. However, the amplitude is only 0.19% (just 8.41 points), and the trading volume is 652,780, which is more than half less than the 5-day average (184,000) and the 10-day average (240,000) — this is not 'stability', but 'power accumulation before the storm'. It's like a fully drawn bow; it will either shoot up (break above 4689) or collapse down (drop below 4372). Once a breakout occurs, it will lead to explosive market movement.

  • 委比 - 0.33% + Support under pressure: A negative委比 indicates that short orders outnumber long orders, giving a slight short-term advantage, while the support level at 4372 is crucial — it has not been broken in the previous three pullbacks. If it gets smashed this time, it will trigger a large number of retail stop-loss orders, leading to a 'chain reaction'. Conversely, if it can break through 4689 with volume (for example, 1-hour trading exceeds 200,000), the trapped chips will be released, opening up upward space.

  • Beware of the embryonic death cross: Although it hasn't fully formed yet, the short-term moving average is trending down towards the long-term moving average. Once the 'death cross' is confirmed, the probability of a short-term decline will significantly increase, which is the core reason for caution now.

II. News front 'good news hides risks': Layer2 explosion + ETF accumulation, but regulation is a hidden landmine.

Don't just panic looking at the technicals, the news front is also 'pulling in both directions'. The positives are strong enough, but risks cannot be overlooked:


  • Layer2 becomes 'hardcore support': Platforms like Arbitrum and Optimism have been hitting new highs in daily trading volume, increasing by 20% in the past week — Layer2 is the 'traffic entrance' of the ETH ecosystem. The more users and active transactions there are, the more stable the 'ecological value' of ETH becomes, as every Layer2 transaction requires ETH, which essentially provides 'insurance' for ETH's demand.

  • Institutions are quietly increasing their positions: The ETH spot ETF has not stopped recently, and BlackRock's ETHA continues to attract capital every day. Institutional holdings are increasing, and this capital is unlikely to be sold off in the short term, effectively providing a 'bottom support' for ETH.

  • Don't forget the regulatory landmines: Although compliance is advancing, the SEC's stance on ETH has not been fully clarified, and with some countries tightening regulation on cryptocurrencies, if negative news suddenly appears, it could very likely become 'the last straw that breaks the camel's back' — retail investors often make the mistake of only looking at the positives while ignoring risks, ultimately panicking and cutting losses during a correction.

III. Future strategy: 70% probability of being bullish, but must avoid these two pitfalls.

Overall, the probability of ETH being bullish in the long term exceeds 70%, with targets reaching 4800-5000, but in the short term, we must first withstand the 'institutional shakeout'. Different styles of investors need to adopt different strategies:

1. Aggressives: Try a small long position near 4372, with a stop loss set below 4350.

If ETH pulls back to the range of 4372-4380 and shows a 'stop-loss signal' (like a long lower shadow), a small long position can be built, but the position should not exceed 20% — the stop loss must be set below 4350. If it breaks below 4350, it indicates that the support has completely failed, and do not hold on, exit quickly to avoid further losses. Initially, aim for 4550, and after breaking through, look for 4689. When reaching the pressure level, reduce positions by 30%, do not be greedy.

2. Conservatives: Wait for a volume breakout above 4689 before entering the market, avoiding those who 'catch the falling knife'.

Don't rush to buy the dip. Wait until ETH really stabilizes at 4689 and the 1-hour trading volume exceeds 250,000 (double the current volume) before entering the market — this will help avoid the pitfall of a 'false breakout'. After all, there is currently a large divergence between bulls and bears, and a 'breakout followed by a pullback' could occur. After entering, set the stop loss at 4600 and aim directly for 4800. When the target is reached, take half the profit and let the rest aim for 5000.

3. Everyone must remember: Position management is more important than directional judgment.

Never go all in! Even if you are optimistic about ETH, keep at least 30% cash on hand — black swans can appear at any time. If you are fully invested and get trapped, you will either have to cut losses or miss other opportunities. Additionally, do not use high leverage; using more than 5 times leverage in the current market could lead to liquidation with just a small fluctuation. Protecting your principal is much more important than 'betting on short-term ups and downs'.


Final reminder: In the current market, institutions are 'washing out retail investors' at key positions, getting rid of those who panic at every drop and chase at every rise, before pulling the market up again. Retail investors should not operate randomly with emotions but should focus on key points and trading volume. Wait when you need to wait, enter when it’s time to enter, and decisively cut losses when it’s time to stop loss — after all, the bull market isn't over yet, and you shouldn’t lose all your principal halfway through. Otherwise, even if the market rises later, it won’t matter to you!

Thank you for your attention and likes, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.#比特币巨鲸换仓以太坊