Recently, I keep feeling that the market looks familiar—altcoins have daily 'explosive rallies', and in the morning, they shout 'certain coins will double', only for them to plummet in the afternoon, trapping those who chased the highs; the group is constantly saying 'the altcoin season has arrived', but every time it’s 'the wolf is coming', rising for one day and falling for three days, leaving retail investors exhausted. This kind of 'repeated pump and dump, testing patience' rhythm is very reminiscent of the first half of the 2017 bull market—back then, BTC first rose, and altcoins followed suit, every time seeming on the verge of explosion, only to result in 'inducing retail investors to buy high and then harvesting', until finally, when everyone gave up hope, the real altcoin season suddenly arrived.
It is worth noting that recently, BTC OG whales (those who have held BTC for many years) have frequently been seen taking actions to 'exchange large sums for ETH': from on-chain data, many addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have been successively transferring BTC to exchanges over the past week, converting it to ETH, and then making small purchases of mainstream altcoins (such as SOL, ADA, DOT). This is not simply 'bearish on BTC'; it looks more like a 'rotational exit of liquidity'—whales cashing out part of their profits when BTC rises to the 110,000-120,000 range, then reallocating funds to ETH and altcoins that haven’t risen significantly yet, waiting for the next round of 'sector rotation' dividends.
The logic of this capital flow is highly similar to that of 2017: back then, BTC first peaked, and then institutions and whales began to transfer funds from BTC to ETH and altcoins, starting with ETH rising from 300 to 1400, followed by a collective explosion in altcoins, with many small tokens surging 5-10 times in just half a month. The signals now are clearer: on one hand, BTC is fluctuating around 110,000, with short-term upward momentum weakening, and capital needs to find targets with 'lower valuations and greater potential'; on the other hand, ETH spot ETFs are experiencing continuous net inflows, ecosystem activity (L2, DeFi) is constantly improving, and after the previous pullback, altcoins are also at relatively low valuations, making them ideal targets for capital rotation.
However, retail investors can easily fall into traps during this 'rotation period': either chasing after altcoins when they rise a bit, only to get caught in a 'pump and dump' situation; or getting so battered that they clear out their positions entirely, only to be too afraid to re-enter when the real altcoin season arrives. In 2017, many people experienced this: they lost money during the altcoin 'pump and dump' phase, and by the time the altcoin season exploded, they were left with very few chips, watching others profit.
What needs to be done now is not to 'chase after altcoins blindly', but to 'plan ahead and patiently wait for the wind': first, filter those altcoins with real ecosystems (such as those with practical applications and active users) and moderate market caps (1-10 billion USD), avoiding 'pure concept hype' coins; then, build positions gradually during pullbacks, not going all in at once to avoid getting trapped by short-term fluctuations; finally, endure the torment of the 'pump and dump' phase—after all, the rotation of whale funds takes time, transferring from BTC to ETH, and then spreading from ETH to altcoins will not happen overnight; there will inevitably be fluctuations in between.
Overall, the 'altcoin script' of this bull market has already shown shadows of 2017: first rely on BTC to build the framework of the bull market, then depend on ETH to absorb funds, and finally ignite retail FOMO emotions with altcoins. The current 'pump and dump' and 'whale rotation' are just setups before the storm—when everyone is tortured to the point of 'not believing the altcoin season will come,' the real opportunities will emerge. Don’t let short-term fluctuations disrupt your rhythm; prepare in advance to seize opportunities when the altcoin season arrives. Thank you for your attention and likes; feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.#比特币远古巨鲸持续出清
