This morning, I opened the trading software, and ETH was still hovering around 4500, but once the news of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke, the market instantly changed its tone—nearly 600 Russian drones bombed Kyiv, and Zelensky stated, 'This is a response to the peace talks.' A geopolitical black swan suddenly smashed into the market. Looking at the 1-hour candlestick, the Bollinger Bands have tightened, and support and resistance are firmly holding the price. Today ETH will either break down sharply or rebound from the bottom; there is absolutely no possibility of 'lying flat.'
1. Technical Analysis 'Pinched from both sides': The Bollinger Bands are tightening, indicating a potential change, with 4430 being the critical line.
Focus on technical aspects: ETH is currently stuck in a 'desperate situation.'
The Bollinger Bands are tightening to the extreme: upper band at 4639, lower band at 4403, leaving only 236 points of space in between. This kind of 'narrow sideways movement' is like a fully drawn bowstring, ready to snap at any moment—historically, after the ETH Bollinger Bands tighten, 80% of the time there will be fluctuations exceeding 5%, either breaking up past the 4613 resistance or crashing down to test the 4403 support.
RSI and volume are 'silent': RSI is stuck in the neutral zone at 45, and the trading volume is down 30% from yesterday; this doesn't mean the market is 'stable,' it means everyone is waiting for news—before the war news broke, everyone was waiting for technical breakdowns; now that the black swan has arrived, people are hesitant to act, all watching whether 'panic sentiment will escalate.'
The key level is 4403: this position is the lower edge of the recent consolidation platform. It has not been broken in the previous two pullbacks. If today it is pierced by war panic, the next step will directly test 4300 or even 4200; but as long as it holds, it indicates that buying pressure is still present, and panic selling is just 'short-term emotional killing.'
2. News aspect 'Black Swan' disruption: The crypto market is not like traditional markets; don’t be misled by 'safe haven' fallacies.
Many people shout 'BTC/ETH as a safe haven' when they see war, but this time it's different; we need to clarify the risks and opportunities.
Don’t blindly believe in 'crypto as a safe haven': when the Russia-Ukraine conflict first erupted in 2022, BTC dropped from 39,000 to 35,000, and ETH fell by 12%—in the early stages of geopolitical conflict, all assets will be subject to 'panic selling,' whether stocks, oil, or cryptocurrencies, funds will first convert to cash to 'avoid disaster'; only when the situation clarifies will funds flow back into 'non-sovereign assets' like BTC/ETH.
The scale of the war is key: right now, it’s just drone bombardment; unless it escalates to 'use of nuclear weapons' or 'full-scale warfare,' panic sentiment will last at most 1-2 days; but if the situation spirals out of control, global financial markets will collapse, and ETH will be no exception—however, based on current information, the probability of such an extreme situation is very low, more of a 'short-term emotional shock.'
ETF and ecosystem 'supporting': don’t forget that ETH has hard logic behind it—spot ETFs are still attracting funds daily, and Layer 2 daily trading volume is hitting new highs. These medium to long-term positives have not been broken by the war, only temporarily overshadowed by panic.
3. My judgment: bearish in the short term but not panicking; as long as 4403 holds, it is a 'golden pit.'
For today’s market, I lean towards 'short-term decline followed by stability.'
During the day, there is a high probability of testing 4403: with the war news just released, retail investors will panic and sell, and short-term selling pressure will drive the price down to the support level, especially if the trading volume increases in the early session, it is very likely to quickly touch 4403.
Don’t fear 'drops,' fear 'breaks': if 4403 can hold, and even shows a 'long lower shadow' (dropping and then quickly rebounding), that will be a buying signal—historically, the pits created by black swans, such as the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict and the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis, are seen as 'buying opportunities' in hindsight, because panic is temporary and ETH's fundamentals have not deteriorated.
The long-term logic remains intact: as long as the Russia-Ukraine situation does not deteriorate drastically, the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve still exists, ETH ETF funds are still entering the market, the bull market is not over, this pullback is just a 'minor episode in the bull market,' not a trend reversal.
4. Operational advice: Don’t chase highs, don’t hold on stubbornly; different people have different strategies.
1. Short-term players: wait for a pullback, don’t become a 'bag holder.'
Don’t chase highs in early trading; even if ETH rebounds to 4580, don’t enter. Short-term sentiment is unstable, and the rebound is likely to be 'a trap to lure buyers.'
Wait for a retest near 4403: if it drops but the volume decreases and a stop signal appears (like the 15-minute candlestick closing in the green), you can try a small long position with a stop loss set below 4380 (if support is broken, exit), targeting 4550 for profit-taking; don’t be greedy.
If it directly breaks 4403, don’t stubbornly hold short positions; wait until it drops to 4350 before reassessing to avoid being trapped by 'oversold rebounds.'
2. Long-term players: a drop is just a 'discount,' accumulate in batches.
If you have cash, don’t go all in at once. Buy 20% if ETH drops below 4400, and another 20% if it drops to 4300, keeping your total position within 50%, leaving funds to deal with extreme situations.
If you already have positions, don’t rush to sell. If you haven’t leveraged, a short-term drop of 5% is nothing. ETH has gone from 3800 to 4900, experiencing several 10% pullbacks, and eventually recovered each time.
Remember: long-term profits come from 'ecological growth' money, not 'short-term emotional' money. No matter how fierce the war is, it won't change the value of ETH as the foundation of the crypto ecosystem.
To be honest: war and market trends both go against human nature. When others panic and sell, don’t follow suit; when others think 'buying the dip at the halfway point,' don’t rush in with a full position. Today, focus on two key points: whether the 4403 support level can hold, and whether the Russia-Ukraine situation escalates further. As long as these two points remain intact, ETH is still the ETH that can rise back to 5000; short-term panic is merely 'benefits for long-term investors.' Thank you for your attention and likes, and feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.#比特币巨鲸换仓以太坊
