The changes in the main players' movements that everyone is most concerned about have now taken on new dynamics. First, let me clarify that what I share is an objective presentation of current data and does not constitute any investment advice. Please refer to it as needed.
Let's first take a look at the situation with Bitcoin. Currently, the main players are engaged in intense competition, and there are numerous dense orders piled up around the current price.
The 3-hour cycle is currently breaking below the long tunnel area of the Vegas channel.
If the closing confirms a drop below this area, attention can be paid to the support level of the 4-hour trend channel.
It would be ideal if a candlestick pattern could form here and stabilize above 11.16k.
Currently, Bitcoin is showing a weak breakout trend. If it cannot rebound significantly after the candle closes, it may continue to test support, as one friend observed. The volume of the previous fast line is quite high, so the subsequent performance of a few K lines will be crucial.
Looking at Ethereum again, the 45-minute cycle is also breaking below the Vegas channel.
A large number of orders are also accumulated around the current price.
These orders are not only dense, but the amounts are even greater than Bitcoin, but the main players' willingness to enter at lower prices is relatively stronger, frequently placing and canceling orders.
Resistance levels are sequentially in the range of 4800~4830, followed by 4900, with further pressure at the 5000 mark; on the support side, 4600 is a key position, and looking down, the range of 4480~4500 is next, with further support in the range of 4285~4300. Additionally, it should be noted that the 5000 mark is the recent target for major players, though this does not mean Ethereum will necessarily reach this position; it simply indicates that there are large whales betting at this position.
During this time, although Ethereum has reached a new high, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has not risen in sync, indicating that the altcoin season may need to wait a little longer. This concludes my sharing of the main data on Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Additionally, I would like to recommend a practical volume ratio indicator, which is mainly used for early warning and is particularly suitable for short-term analysis in 15 minutes, 30 minutes, and 45 minutes. You can view it through this link: https://www.aicoin.com/indicator-detail/5dYbA45P6vQkXw1W.
Let's return to the theme of this live broadcast. The rise last Friday, I believe everyone knows, was influenced by Powell's remarks. The market's betting probability on the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September has now exceeded 87%.
It is worth paying attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, as it concerns the direction of the entire financial market.
A rate cut means the Federal Reserve will release liquidity, which will bring more funds into the market. In the long run, this is undoubtedly good news. However, typically, there will be a wave of speculative rise before favorable events land, and once the rate cut is officially implemented, it may lead to a situation where the good news is realized, and profit-taking could create a short-term bearish effect.
Another important trend is the increase in holdings by American institutions, which can mainly be observed through the data of the US spot ETH ETF.
Everyone can take a look at these two images; the choice of funds has become increasingly clear recently - shifting from BTC to ETH. Major institutions on Wall Street and those 'smart money' are directing funds towards ETH, which is also one of the important driving forces behind the recent rise of Ethereum.
So, overall, the recent ETH market is supported by both macro liquidity expectations and institutional capital grabbing, along with the main players betting at the 5000 mark, indicating potential for growth in the long run. If Ethereum can continue to be strong, to judge whether the altcoin season is approaching, one must pay close attention to changes in total market capitalization. Typically, when the altcoin season arrives, total market capitalization increases, BTC's market share declines, coupled with a shift in market sentiment towards greed or FOMO, these are all signals that need attention.
This article only represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance or views of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.
