📌 Event Review
Recently, the Ethereum market has experienced intense price fluctuations. As early as around 03:00, ETH's price hovered around $4576, and thereafter the market triggered stop-losses and liquidations due to high-leverage positions, forming a chain liquidation effect and causing the price to drop sharply within a short time. Multiple key support levels were sequentially broken, falling from $4500 to below $4400, resulting in panic selling. Although there was a brief stabilization at 04:25, with ETH's price rising to about $4415, overall volatility remains evident, and market sentiment is still tense.
⏰ Timeline
03:00: The market opens, observing ETH prices hovering around $4576.
03:00～03:56: Due to the stop-loss and liquidation triggered by high-leverage long positions, the price dropped sharply from $4576 to $4428, a decrease of about 3.24%.
03:31: The market shows that ETH has broken below the key support of $4500, and initial panic sentiment is emerging.
03:37～03:39: Multiple monitoring messages successively confirm that the price has fallen below $4500, further exacerbating risk-averse sentiment.
03:00～04:10: Comprehensive data shows that the ETH price has slid from about $4573 to $4376, with a cumulative decline of 4.30%, breaking through the $4400 mark.
04:10: News reports indicate that the low point of ETH has reached around $4376, with panic selling and technical stop-loss effects fully fermenting.
04:25: The market experiences a brief rebound, with ETH prices rising to about $4415, but overall volatility remains significant.
🔍 Reason Analysis
The sharp fluctuations in ETH this time are mainly driven by the following two factors:
Technical stop-loss and leverage liquidation
A large number of high-leverage positions in the market triggered stop-losses when key support levels were hit, forming a chain liquidation effect. This technical stop-loss not only accelerated the price decline but also triggered widespread panic selling, leading to a rapid loss of price control.
Macroeconomic expectations and liquidity risks
The repeated adjustments in the Federal Reserve's liquidity control and interest rate cut expectations, along with certain officials' statements about using standing repurchase agreements to alleviate liquidity pressure, have reduced market risk appetite.
At the same time, the slowdown in economic growth expectations and related regulatory news have collectively increased market uncertainty, exacerbating risk-averse sentiment and further contributing to the sharp fluctuations in prices of digital assets like ETH.
⚙️ Technical Analysis
Based on Binance USDT perpetual contract 45-minute candlestick data, a technical interpretation of ETH's recent trends is conducted:
The price is currently operating along the lower Bollinger Band, showing a clear weak trend.
The KDJ indicator is in the oversold area and shows signs of convergence, indicating a possible technical rebound in the short term, but overall bullish strength is insufficient.
The moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50) are all in a bearish arrangement, with prices remaining below these moving averages for a long time, indicating that the downtrend is still solid.
The exponential moving averages (EMA5/10/20/50/120) are also all positioned low, especially the EMA20 with a steep slope (approximately -1.22%), indicating strong downward momentum.
The MACD histogram shows a continuous decrease, further confirming that the downward momentum is weakening but still overall downward.
Trading volume data shows a significant increase in recent trading volume compared to the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, indicating enhanced market activity, but mainly used to accelerate short positions to exit and stop losses.
The total liquidation amount across the network reached tens of millions of dollars within the last hour, with long positions accounting for as much as 96%, and this liquidation effect accelerated the price's consecutive decline.
🔮 Market Outlook
Although ETH is currently in a relatively oversold state, some technical indicators (such as RSI and TD price reversal) show the possibility of a short-term rebound, the overall market backdrop still carries significant downward risks. Future trends need to focus on the following points:
If ETH can stabilize in the current support range, buying interest may lead to a technical rebound;
Conversely, if the price breaks below the key support, especially in the $4400 and below area, it could trigger further liquidations and a chain reaction of liquidations, significantly amplifying market risk;
At the same time, changes in macroeconomic policies and liquidity controls will still have a significant impact on market sentiment, and investors need to remain cautious.
Overall, the current ETH market is still in a phase of technical adjustment and market sentiment fluctuations. It is recommended that investors closely monitor changes at key technical levels, reasonably allocate positions, and prepare for risk control to cope with potential sharp fluctuations.
