1. The People's Bank of China releases 600 billion liquidity: funds may flow into the crypto market
On Monday, the People's Bank of China implemented a 600 billion MLF operation, injecting liquidity into the market. Historical data shows that periods of massive liquidity often benefit crypto assets:
In 2020, $1.75 trillion was released, and BTC rose 43% that month
In 2022, MLF increased by 500 billion, SOL rose by 33%
In 2023, 600 billion MLF was implemented, ETH rose 17%
Currently, BTC is at $113,000, SOL at $203, a critical point; capital inflow may break resistance levels. But note: the effect of liquidity won't be immediate, it is advised to wait for trading volume to increase to $20 billion/hour before acting to avoid being trapped by chasing highs.
2. US PCE data: life or death decision next Friday
The core PCE data for July to be released on September 1 (the inflation metric most valued by the Federal Reserve) is crucial:
Exceeds expectations (≥3.0%): probability of interest rate cuts drops significantly, BTC may fall below $110,000, SOL may break $200
Below expectations (≤2.8%): expectations for interest rate cuts rise, BTC may aim for $118,000, SOL may break $214
Meets expectations (2.9%): likely narrow fluctuations
It is recommended to hold light positions before next Friday, keeping enough cash to cope with volatility.
3. Monday data preview: Germany IFO + US new home sales
Two major data points on August 26 may affect the opening:
Germany IFO Index: a decline favors BTC (capital seeks safety), an increase may drain the crypto market
US new home sales: below expectations favors the crypto market (interest rate cut expectations), exceeding expectations would be bearish
It is recommended to observe the data after the market opens before taking action to avoid blind moves.
4. UK market closure + Chinese concept stock earnings: hidden risks
UK market closed on Monday: European trading volume reduced by 30%, potential for tail spike, short-term need to set wide stop-losses (BTC $110,000, SOL $198)
Pinduoduo, Haidilao earnings report: exceeding expectations may drive capital into risk assets, benefiting the crypto market; if below expectations, it may trigger risk-averse sentiment.
It is recommended not to hold heavy positions before the earnings report and to wait for the results to adjust.
5. India's new tariff regulations: need to pay attention to the butterfly effect
The new tariff regulations in India may trigger a global trade chain reaction, as their tax increase on crypto assets in 2022 led to a drop in BTC. Need to pay attention to the impact on cross-border crypto projects (such as Matic, Ada).
This week's layout strategy
Monday:
9:00 Germany IFO data: if it declines, lightly add BTC (10%), if it rises, observe
22:00 US new home sales: if below expectations, add SOL (5%), if above expectations, reduce by 5%
Control positions below 50% to prevent tail spikes
Tuesday - Thursday:
Earnings report exceeds expectations: increase positions in major coins by 5%; does not meet expectations: reduce positions by 10%
Focus on A-share performance to determine capital flow
Maintain 50%-60% position, waiting for Friday's PCE
After Friday's PCE data:
Exceeds expectations: liquidate 50%, continue to reduce if breaking critical levels
Below expectations: increase positions by 30%, hold if breaking resistance levels
Meets expectations: keep position unchanged, waiting for new signals
