'Will there be a crash and bear market before the end of the year?' Recently, this question has been prevalent in the backend, revolving around these two anxieties - but seasoned players understand: the crypto market never has 'continuous declines' or 'continuous rises', all turning points are hidden in the phrase 'extreme conditions lead to opposite outcomes'.
Today, let's discuss something concrete, combining the real case of ETH consolidating at 1400 and a primary coin skyrocketing hundreds of times, to thoroughly analyze the 3 clear signals behind 'extreme conditions lead to opposite outcomes' and the logic of major players harvesting profits, so you can see whether to wait or take action now.
First, clearly recognize the 3 'certain signals': don't let emotions mislead you.
Many people are panicking now because they haven't seen the 'certainty' - these 3 things are already clear indicators, 10 times more reliable than staring at K-lines to guess rises and falls:
'Interest rate cuts' are not 'a reason to rise', but a tool for major players to 'take advantage of the situation'.
Don't believe in the nonsense 'as soon as interest rates are cut, it's a bull market'! In the past 3 rounds of interest rate cuts (2019, 2020, 2023), hasn't every time been major players first taking advantage of the 'expectation of rate cuts' to pump, then crashing it to trap retail investors?
Just like before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2023, BTC rose from 30,000 to 42,000, and retail investors rushed in shouting 'the bull is here', only for major players to use 'the interest rate cut landing' to smash it down to 25,000 - what you think is 'good news' is actually the harvesting strategy major players had already planned.
The current situation is clearer: the market is waiting for 'interest rate cuts', but major players are not rushing to pump, instead pressing down altcoins - it's not that they don't want to move, they're waiting for 'retail investor sentiment to reach its peak': only when you feel 'interest rate cuts are useless' and sell off will they take advantage of the situation.
The 'bottom era' of altcoins is long gone! Six months or even two years of consolidation isn't 'still able to drop', it's 'unable to drop anymore'.
Have you noticed? ETH has been around 1400 dollars for almost half a year, and some small altcoins have even consolidated for two years, dropping to the point where retail investors 'don't even want to look' - what are major players doing by dropping it again?
A major player friend of mine said to me: 'When ETH drops to 1400, retail investors are either playing dead or are too scared to buy the dip. When it drops another 50 dollars, diamond hands will directly take the chips, and we will instead lose low-priced goods.'
Last year, a certain altcoin dropped from 0.01 to 0.002, consolidated for 8 months, and retail investors all cursed it as a 'zero coin', only for the major players to pull it up to 0.02, and those who sold at 0.002 watched helplessly as it rose 10 times - 'the longer the bottom consolidation lasts, the less meaningful the drop becomes', this is an unchanging rule in the crypto world.
There are still 3 months left in BTC's three-year cycle: the 'crash concerns' before the end of the year are not without basis.
Veteran players remember: BTC has a small cycle every 3 years (2018-2021, 2021-2024), and every time at the end of the cycle there will be a wave of 'crash-style liquidation'. Now there are 3 months left until the end of 2024, just right at the 'end of the cycle'.
At the end of the 2021 cycle, BTC dropped from 69,000 to 30,000, and altcoins generally halved; in 2018, it dropped from 20,000 to 3200, how many people held until the end and sold at the bottom - it's not that 'it must crash', but be vigilant about 'extreme market conditions at the end of the cycle': major players will take advantage of 'bad news' to amplify panic, leading you to sell at the lowest point, then start a new cycle.
Second, the major players' 'anti-human nature operations': why not drop ETH, but instead pump primary coins to skyrocket hundreds of times?
Recently, the most heartbreaking thing: while ETH is meandering at 1400, a certain primary MEME coin has surged from 0.001 to 0.1, increasing by 100 times - this is not 'luck', it's the major players executing the harvesting logic of 'extreme conditions lead to opposite outcomes':
'Dropping ETH is not beneficial, raising ETH is the way to harvest'.
ETH has been consolidating at 1400 for half a year, and retail investors have long lost their 'desire to operate': not shorting (for fear of rebounds), not going long (for fear of further drops), and not even looking - when major players drop ETH at this time, they not only can't collect chips, but also deliver low-priced goods to diamond hands.
But what if they raise ETH? For example, from 1400 to 1800, how would retail investors behave? 'Finally a rebound, let's chase it quickly' 'I was stuck at 1600, I'll sell once I break even' - major players just take advantage of the 'rise' to let retail investors buy in, then crash it again to trap another wave, that's how 'you can make steady profits'.
A primary coin surging hundreds of times: it's not 'an opportunity', it's 'a trap with drums and gongs'.
Recently, many people have asked, 'A certain primary coin has increased by 50 times, can I jump in?' - I countered, 'How do you know it has increased by 50 times?' The answers are usually 'someone in the group showed it, or I saw it in the news.'
This is the major players' 'extreme conditions lead to opposite outcomes' routine: first let a certain coin 'silently rise 10 times', when retail investors all see it and think 'it can still rise', they will then pull one last wave to let you jump in, then directly crash it - what you think is 'an opportunity' is actually the major players 'ringing the bell and beating the drum to invite you to take the bait'.
Just like PEPE in 2023, when it surged to 0.0000015, the whole network celebrated, but after retail investors jumped in, it quickly dropped back to 0.0000003, trapping 80% of people - 'When you discover a coin, it's usually about to crash,' this saying is never wrong.
Three, the core of 'extreme conditions lead to opposite outcomes': it's not about looking at K-lines, it's about looking at 'the extremes of human nature'.
Why say 'the current charts have all repeated in the past'? Because the essence of the market is 'human nature's games' - the cycle of greed and fear has never changed:
In 2017, ETH rose from 100 to 1400, retail investors shouted 'it can reach 2000', only for it to drop back to 80; in 2021 it rose to 4800, and retail shouted 'over 10,000', only to drop back to 1500 - this is not 'coincidence', it's 'rising to the extreme must drop', because when everyone is greedy, major players have no chips to sell;
In 2022, when BTC dropped to 15,000, retail investors cursed it as 'going to zero', selling off their positions, only to see it rise to 69,000; in 2023, when ETH fell to 880, retail investors were too scared to touch it, only for it to rise to 2100 - this is 'extreme drops lead to rises', because when everyone is fearful, major players can scoop up assets at low prices.
Have you ever had this experience: a certain coin dropped for 3 months, and you couldn't help but sell, only for it to rise right after you sold; a certain coin surged 5 times, and you jumped in, only for it to drop right after you bought - it's actually not that you had 'bad luck', it's just that you happened to step on the 'extreme point of human nature', which is precisely the turning point of 'extreme conditions leading to opposite outcomes'.
Fourth, 'opportunities are for the prepared': it's not just empty talk, these 3 things need to be done right now.
Don't panic when the market comes, do these 3 things well now, and you can catch the opportunity of 'extreme conditions leading to opposite outcomes':
Focus on 'the movement of major funds', not on 'retail investor sentiment'.
When a primary coin skyrockets, don't just look at the percentage increase, check 'if the major players are offloading' (look for large on-chain transfers, like a certain address transferring 10% of the circulating supply at once); when ETH was at 1400, check 'if the trading volume has increased' - a drop without volume is a 'false drop', a rise with volume is a 'true rise'.
Set stop losses and take profits based on 'cycles', not on feelings.
With 3 months left in the BTC three-year cycle, for those currently holding, set stop losses at 'recent low - 5%' (for example, if BTC is currently 62,000, set stop loss at 60,000); if you want to buy altcoins, only use 10% of spare money, don't go all in - at the end of the cycle, 'staying alive' is more important than 'making a lot'.
Avoid 'coins that everyone knows'.
A certain coin increased by 10 times and made it to trending searches, and everyone is scrambling for a certain airdrop - don't touch it at this time! The opportunities of 'extreme conditions leading to opposite outcomes' are hidden in 'corners that no one pays attention to': for example, a small altcoin that has been consolidating for two years, with low trading volume, but recently major players have quietly increased their positions (check the address using lookonchain).
To be honest: there have never been 'always correct' predictions in the crypto market, but the law of 'extreme conditions leading to opposite outcomes' will always help you avoid the worst traps. Don't rush to buy the dip now, and don't rush to cut losses, first see clearly 'what the major players are waiting for' and 'to what extreme human nature has gone' - opportunities are never about 'jumping in', but 'waiting at the turning point'.
Let's chat in the comments: how long has the altcoin in your hands been consolidating? Have you ever experienced 'selling at the bottom and chasing at the top'? Follow me, and I'll teach you how to use 'on-chain data' to track major funds and catch the turning point of 'extreme conditions leading to opposite outcomes' in advance!
