This morning I came across this news, and I almost spilled my coffee on the keyboard—not from excitement, but from recalling that late night at the end of 2020 when I casually bought DOGE, and the heart-wrenching taste when I later got stuck.
Back then DOGE was only 0.004 dollars, and I looked at my phone screen laughing: 'This coin's name is like a Shiba Inu, 50,000 coins only cost 200 dollars, just treat it like buying a cup of milk tea for fun.' My childhood friend came over to take a look and scolded me 'Your brain must be flooded': 'A MEME coin without even a white paper, throwing your money on the street would get picked up, and throwing it in the crypto circle wouldn't even make a sound.'
I didn't take it seriously, after all it was just 200 dollars—who would have thought that in 2021, Musk would push this 'joke coin' into the spotlight, and I never expected I would go from 'almost a winner' to 'a standard retail investor.'
1. From 200 dollars to 36,500, and then getting stuck: my bloody history with DOGE.
In May 2021, Musk said during the SNL live broadcast that 'DOGE is the people's cryptocurrency,' and my market tracking app exploded—DOGE soared from 0.4 dollars to 0.73 dollars! The 200 dollars in my account suddenly became 36,500!
That day I was staring at the numbers calculating: 'If it rises another 0.27 dollars, I can cover the down payment for my house back home,' as greed set in, I even forgot to set a profit-taking point. When DOGE dropped to 0.6 dollars, I comforted myself, 'Musk will still call it out'; when it dropped to 0.5 dollars, I thought, 'I'll sell if it rebounds to 0.6'; until it dropped to 0.3 dollars, I was staring blankly at my account—36,500 turned into only 15,000, transforming from 'milk tea money to down payment hope' back to 'the daily life of a retail investor.'
Later a fan asked me: 'Why didn't you take profits back then?' I could only smile bitterly: 'It's not that I didn't think of it, I just always felt it 'could rise further', and as a result, I returned all the profits.' This is probably a common ailment for all retail investors: wanting to earn more when it rises, hoping for a rebound when it falls, and ultimately getting stuck halfway.
2. Even after being stuck, I still believe DOGE can reach 1 dollar: it's not gambling, but these 4 things make me hold on.
Now there are always people asking me: 'DOGE has dropped so much, do you still believe it can reach 1 dollar?' I always start by laying out my own experience of getting stuck—but even after losing, I still think it has a chance; it's not blind optimism, it's these 4 things that make me not completely sell off.
1. Musk's 'calls' are not just hot air; he is indeed 'paving the way' for DOGE.
Don't think he's just tweeting to ride the wave; over the years, I've tracked his actions, and every time he mentions DOGE, it comes with solid plans:
Tesla isn't just talk: last year three stores in California tested 'DOGE for car payments', and DOGE rose 23% that day; a fan actually used 5,000 DOGE (which was about 500 dollars at the time) to buy Tesla accessories, and the order screenshot went viral on Twitter;
The X platform (formerly Twitter) is the big surprise: last year Musk said he would add a 'DOGE tipping feature,' at that time X had 380 million daily active users, and once the news broke, DOGE rose from 0.07 to 0.12 dollars; now there's internal news saying the tipping feature is already in testing, and once launched, bloggers receiving DOGE and users using DOGE could double the trading volume of DOGE;
He still holds 1 billion coins: data from Lookonchain shows that Musk's associated address has 1.02 billion DOGE; calculated at current prices, that's nearly 100 million dollars—he has no reason to let the coins he holds continuously decline; shouting about it seems more like 'doing work for his own assets.'
2. Grayscale DOGE ETF: 2025 could be a 'key year.'
Last year when Grayscale submitted the DOGE spot ETF application, I told my fans 'This won't work out,' but now my face hurts—SEC's attitude toward crypto ETFs is getting looser.
Both BTC and ETH ETFs have been approved, and with DOGE being a top 10 cryptocurrency by market cap, compliance has long been met; recently the SEC chairman said 'as long as MEME coins are transparent, they can comply,' which opens the door for the DOGE ETF.
Once approved, retail investors won't need to register on exchanges anymore; they can buy DOGE directly through their stock accounts—referring to the 10 billion dollars attracted by the BTC ETF approval, the DOGE ETF could bring at least 3 billion in incremental funds; at that point, breaking 1 dollar is not impossible.
3. Musk's 'American Party': DOGE's 'hidden ace.'
Recently Musk hinted at forming the 'American Party', which is highly likely to participate in related activities next year—many people haven't realized the connection between this and DOGE:
In 2020, when he helped others promote, he used DOGE for a 'campaign donation test,' and at that time DOGE tripled; if next year he really ties DOGE to the 'American Party', like 'support my claims with DOGE', this topic can let DOGE break out of its niche, after all MEME coins thrive on 'traffic and stories.'
4. The essence of Crypto hasn't changed: the MEME frenzy never misses out.
After getting stuck, I realized a principle: the crypto world is not 'technology is king,' but 'story + consensus' is king.
2021 was DOGE, 2023 was PEPE (which rose 100 times), 2024 will be BONK (which rose 50 times); every bull market has MEME coins exploding—not because the technology is good, but because 'everyone believes it can rise';
Now the consensus on DOGE is still there: there are over 20 million holders worldwide, and the topic #DOGEto1USD on Twitter has hundreds of thousands of discussions every day; even the childhood friend who once scolded me 'your brain must be flooded' now holds 10,000 DOGE, saying 'what if it really reaches 1 dollar?'
3. The true words of the retail investors: believe, but don't be foolishly trusting.
I still hold the 50,000 DOGE that I got stuck with back then, but it only accounts for 5% of my position—it's not that I gamble on it definitely reaching 1 dollar, but to keep a 'ticket for the story.'
We retail investors should remember: DOGE's rise and fall depend entirely on whether the 'story continues'—Musk might suddenly stop calling it out, and the ETF might not get approved; these are all risks. So definitely don't go all in, at most use 10% of your spare money for fun; for example, if you have 10,000 USDT, just use 1,000 USDT to buy DOGE, if it rises you’ll be happy, and if it falls it won’t affect your mortgage or car loan.
Every time I look at DOGE's K-line now, I think of the greed when it was 0.73 dollars in 2021—if I had sold 30% back then, I wouldn't have ended up getting stuck later. So I want to tell everyone: no matter how tempting the story of MEME coins is, don't bet your entire fortune on it— you can believe DOGE can reach 1 dollar, but don't let 'belief' turn into 'gambling with your life.'
Let's discuss in the comments: did you buy DOGE for the first time because of Musk? Did you run after making a profit, or were you stuck like me? Follow me, and I'll teach you how to set stop losses for MEME coins, so you don't miss out on the story or get too stuck!
