“SOL breaks below 190, buy the dip or cut losses? Understand the life-and-death situation in the 181~207 range in one article!”
Quick Review
24-hour contract net outflow of 2.5M, spot trading volume reduced by 47%, yet the price is stuck at the lower Bollinger band, reminiscent of last August's “false drop, real rise” eve.
Key Ranges and Trading Structure
1. Value Anchor: POC=181.91, the largest transaction in the past 2 weeks, yesterday's UpVol accounted for 62%, the main force is still buying low.
2. High Volume Buffer: 180.49~183.34 (HVN triple peak), with strong resistance at 193.31 and 202.56 above.
3. Low Volume Void: 161.26~169.81 (LVN zone), if the volume breaks below 185, it will quickly slide to 165.
4. 70% Value Zone: 179.06~207.55; the current price at 186.83 is at the lower edge, on the verge of short-term overselling.
5. Momentum Verification: UpVol above POC > DownVol by 1.65 times, but 4-hour level DownVol is expanding, requiring a second confirmation.
Auxiliary Signals
• MA200=190.78, deviation -2.1%, the largest negative deviation in recent months, indicating mean reversion demand.
• Contract positions 24h -8.38%, long-short ratio 3.02→2.92, bulls are passively reducing positions, and bears have not significantly increased, indicating a healthy correction.
• The bid wall is 5.66 million USDT (2.1 times sell orders), with 5 LP clusters at 186~185, providing solid short-term support.
Market Cycle
Mid-term is still in a “high-level oscillation biased towards bullish,” weekly level has not broken the large platform at 175; short-term has entered the “end of panic,” ready to trigger a rebound from overselling.
Trading Strategies
• Aggressive: Go long at 185.9±0.3 (POC pullback), stop loss at 183.3 (below HVN), target 193.3/197.6, risk-reward ratio = 3.1.
• Conservative: Wait for 15m level to show UpVol > 60% and a bullish candle closing above 187.5 to chase long, stop loss at 185.7, target 191.9, risk-reward ratio = 2.4.
• Cautious: If the volume breaks below 183.3, go short to 175.0, stop loss at 185.0, risk-reward ratio = 2.6.
Risk Control: If the position size increases again >2% and the price breaks in the opposite direction, stop loss; macro risks focus on the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.
LP Market Making Range
It is recommended to market make in the range of 181.5~193.0 USDT, reasons:
• The range contains POC and two major HVNs, with dense transactions and low slippage;
• Volatility has risen to weekly highs, and transaction fee earnings can cover impermanent losses;
• Reserve a LVN buffer zone of $10 up and down, reducing liquidation risk.
Acknowledgment: “Silicon-Based Liquidity” provides the foundational large model!
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