“PNUT drops below 0.20! Oversold + million buy orders lurking, is it bottom fishing or a trap?”
A brief market sketch
Price has plummeted 10.5% in the last 24 hours, yet the RSI has hit a year-low of 27; contract funds have net flowed out by 235 million, with bears seemingly overwhelming, but the spot market buy orders are showing double the selling order volume— a typical “panic washout” script.
Key interval structure and volume distribution
Value anchoring area (POC): 0.2332, volume 348 million, is the largest turnover area in the past two weeks, with significant selling pressure above.
High volume node (HVN): 0.2236, 0.2274, 0.2332, forming the “resistance three brothers,” prices typically encounter supply when rebounding here.
Low volume node gap (LVN): 0.1978~0.2026 (current price area), with thin trading, can be quickly crossed if volume increases; 0.2666~0.2694 far-end LVN, if rebounding here is likely to move upward in a “vacuum.”
70% volume coverage area: 0.2141~0.2628, current price 0.2025 has fallen below the lower limit, entering the “oversold” edge in the short term.
Momentum validation: Down Volume in the POC area accounts for 59%, slightly bearish; but Up Volume in the LVN area (0.1978) is 24%, indicating a weakening bearish momentum with a short-term rebound demand.
Auxiliary signals: Bollinger Band lower boundary 0.1978, MA200 0.2221, deviation -8.8%, technically oversold; contract OI increased by 1.94% in 24h, long-short ratio dropped from 3.12 to 2.65, mainly long positions reducing, bears not significantly adding positions, selling momentum is slowing down.
Market cycle judgment
The medium-term downward channel remains unchanged, while the short-term is in the “panic end + liquidity vacuum” phase, which can be regarded as a window for oversold rebounds in a downward fluctuation.
Trading strategies (interval structure prioritized)
Aggressive: Build 1/3 position at current price 0.2025±0.0005, stop loss at 0.1970 (lower edge of LVN -1ATR), target 0.2141 (lower edge of 70% area)/0.2236 (first HVN), profit-loss ratio ≈ 2.3.
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to LVN 0.1978 to show a 15m reversal K (PinBar or engulfing), enter again when Up Volume >60%, stop loss at 0.1950, target same as above, profit-loss ratio ≈ 3.1.
Cautious: If volume breaks through 0.2141 and retests without breaking, then chase long on the right side, stop loss at 0.2100, target 0.2274, profit-loss ratio ≈ 2.8.
Risk warning: If the daily closing price falls below 0.1950, the LVN will be invalid, and the strategy will be paused.
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