BTC Today's Market Analysis: Great Opportunities Hidden in Volatile Markets, How Far Can This Rally Go?

"A day in the crypto world is a year in the human world! How many institutional thoughts are hidden in today's BTC candlestick?"

Miners are frantically selling 25,700 BTC! Is this a precursor to a crash or a golden buying opportunity?

Technical Analysis Holds Secrets: Currently, BTC is oscillating in a narrow range between $111,696 and $116,173, with the 4-hour candlestick forming a hammer pattern — a bearish candle followed by a bullish candle with a closing price higher than the opening price, which is a typical signal of "selling pressure relief + buying interest entry." However, the MACD histogram is continuously narrowing, and the KDJ neutral value is 41, combined with the risk of divergence between volume and price, short-term attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback. If it stabilizes above $112,000 today, along with strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, it may challenge the $116,000 resistance level; if it falls below the support level, the strength of support around $111,632 needs to be observed.

News Heats Up:

Expectations for Fed Interest Rate Cuts Rise: After Powell's dovish speech, the market anticipates a 89% chance of a rate cut in September, which could release liquidity and benefit BTC. However, caution is needed for volatility due to "buying the expectation and selling the fact," such as BTC's 12% drop before the 2024 rate cut. Institutional Actions Increasing: Citigroup is laying out stablecoin custody and crypto ETF services, traditional finance's entry boosts market confidence; Hong Kong's stablecoin licenses are about to be issued, and cross-border payment scenarios may attract capital inflows. On-chain Data Concerns: Miners sold 25,700 BTC in three days, and the derivatives market's high leverage warrants caution against volatility triggered by profit-taking.

Personal Opinion: The current market resembles a pot of boiling water — seemingly calm, but with undercurrents. The hammer pattern suggests a rebound, but insufficient volume is a hard flaw. Referring to BTC's similar technical pattern in 2023, which surged 15% after El Salvador announced BTC as legal tender, the recent regulatory progress in Hong Kong and the U.S. may act as new catalysts.

Those with light positions can look for buying opportunities in the $111,696-$112,193 range, setting a stop-loss at $111,632; after breaking through $116,173, they can follow the trend with a target of $118,308. #BTC #杰克逊霍尔会议