Ethereum's Counterattack on Bitcoin? ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Hits Six-Month High, Institutions Hold 530,000 Coins, Standard Chartered Predicts $25,000 by 2028
Powell's Dovish Speech Ignites Crypto Market: In-Depth Analysis and Future Outlook
1. Core Events and Market Reactions
Event Background:
On August 22, 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered dovish comments at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, clearly indicating that the U.S. labor market faces downside risks, and suggesting that changes in risk balance could provide reasons for adjusting policy. This statement was interpreted by the market as a strong signal that the Federal Reserve will shift towards interest rate cuts.
Bitcoin: Briefly broke through $116,000, with a 3.15% increase within 24 hours, reaching an all-time high. Ethereum: Following closely, its price broke through $3,900, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a six-month high, with institutional funds continuing to accumulate. Derivatives Market: CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from 75% to 97.3%, with strong market consensus.
Short-Term Risks
Policy Uncertainty:
Despite strong expectations for rate cuts, the Federal Reserve still needs to observe subsequent economic data. If inflation rebounds or employment exceeds expectations, the policy path may adjust. Technical Overbought:
Bitcoin's RSI reached 75, entering the overbought area, and may face adjustments in the short term. Ethereum's derivatives open interest surged to $51.3 billion, increasing the risk of short liquidations.
Long-Term Opportunities
Liquidity Easing Cycle:
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September, a low-interest environment will continue to favor cryptocurrencies. Standard Chartered predicts that Ethereum's target price will reach $7,500 by the end of 2025 and could reach $25,000 by 2028.
Traditional Funds Entering the Market:
The launch of Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs will attract traditional funds such as pensions and sovereign funds. By 2025, Bitcoin ETF managed assets could reach $190 billion, accounting for 7% of circulation.
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