In recent fluctuations, Bitcoin has once again stabilized at the $112,000 mark. Many believe this is related to Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech. Although this explanation has some merit, it only touches the surface. The core reason supporting BTC has long been embedded in the data.

First, the average cost line of short-term chips.

Data shows that players holding BTC for less than 3 months are the most sensitive group in the market. Their average holding cost is around $112,000. When the price approaches this level, these players are more inclined to hold rather than sell, as their psychological break-even point is here. This behavior of 'unwillingness to cut losses' directly reduces selling pressure in the market, keeping emotions rational amidst anxiety, preventing a slide into panic.

(Figure 1)

Second, the true expectations of the options market.

Unlike futures, options capital flows can more intuitively reflect the attitudes of professional traders. Recent data indicates that the market is more willing to buy call options while selling put options below the spot price. This combination suggests that they generally believe: the downside for BTC is limited, while the likelihood of a rebound is higher. This is a 'confidence vote' on the funding level.

(Figure 2)

Third, the trend of realized profit and loss changes.

From August 18 to 21, the realized loss data for BTC showed a trend of first rising and then falling. Especially on August 21, the loss level fell to the low point of August 19. This indicates that the previously amplified anxiety is gradually easing, and market sentiment is stabilizing.

(Figure 3)

Therefore, Powell's speech acts more like a 'trigger'. The market had already digested the negative expectations in advance, and once the outcome does not exceed expectations, it can instead become an opportunity to release pressure. Macroeconomic uncertainty still exists, but through comprehensive analysis of chips, options, and emotional data, we can more clearly determine the potential direction of the market.

The conclusion is clear:

Bitcoin's ability to hold above $112,000 is not a coincidence, but an inevitable result of market consensus, data logic, and the macro environment interwoven. In trading, when data and logic align, we should have more confidence in our judgments.