Early this morning, Ethereum briefly approached the $5,000 mark but was hindered by a sharp drop in Bitcoin. Recently, Bitcoin's performance has been relatively weak, as previously indicated by the market enthusiast on August 23: for Ethereum to break through key resistance, it not only needs continuous buying power from institutions but also depends on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through its own resistance.

The reason is simple: when the market appears weak, capital with high floating profits is prone to accelerate exit, putting pressure on the buying side. In this situation, ETH finds it difficult to stand alone; only if BTC stabilizes the situation and the capital flow is healthier can Ethereum hope to continue its upward trend.

The speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell once provided the market with a breathing opportunity, but after the rebound, Bitcoin again fell back to around $113,000. This trend not only relates to the lack of liquidity over the weekend but also reflects the market's constant oscillation between inflation, economic recession, and interest rate cut expectations.

From the URPD data of the past two days:

The chips in Zone B decreased by about 9,000 BTC;

The chips in Zone A increased by 25,000.

Overall, the distribution of chips has not changed much, with the support range still concentrated between $112,000 and $108,000.

The support in this area mainly comes from two aspects:

High-position chips choose to watch and not cut losses despite slight losses;

The chips in the $109,000 to $111,000 range are relatively scarce, attracting some capital that missed the entry.

If this range is broken, it means that buying pressure is insufficient or selling pressure is increasing, which will impact market confidence, especially testing the patience and faith of high-position holders.

(Figure 1)

In addition, the movements of whale holdings are also an important factor affecting the current market situation:

The group holding 10 to 100 BTC has recently slightly reduced their holdings, but the scale is not as large as in May-June;

The whale group holding 100 to 10,000 BTC continues to accumulate, but the growth rate has noticeably slowed in the past 30 days.

(Figure 2)

This indicates that the behavior of large capital remains a key variable determining the trend of BTC. However, before there is large-scale reduction or capital exhaustion, the market is unlikely to shift from bullish to bearish.

The repair of market sentiment takes time; players should remain patient and manage their positions well. Only when opportunities arise, and with sufficient 'ammunition' in hand, can one seize the trend.#比特币走势分析