【ETH Epic Peak! 4777→5300 Just One Step Away, Will You Wait Another Year If You Miss It?】
Summary in One Sentence: ETH surged 12%+ in 24 hours, but contract positions have decreased for 5 consecutive days; price-volume divergence + RSI overbought at 82, signaling a potential 'trap' in the late stage of the bull market. A short-term pullback of 20% may occur, but after retesting the value anchor at 4300, new highs are still anticipated.
Key Interval Structure
1. Value Anchor Zone: POC 4305 (maximum trading volume in 2 weeks), with upper HVN at 4285-4344 across 4 levels, and lower LVN gaps at 3760 and 4869-4888.
2. 70% Trading Volume Coverage Zone: 4169-4714, current price at 4777 has deviated from the upper band, indicating short-term overbought conditions.
3. Momentum Validation: Up Volume above POC at 55.6%, still dominated by bulls; however, Down Volume in the 4714-4772 range has risen to 61%, indicating increased short-term selling pressure.
4. Support: 1h Bollinger Band at 69% position, MA200 divergence at +9%, contract OI increased by 9.4% over 7 days then turned negative, funding rate is only 0.01%, and bullish leverage is starting to withdraw.
Market Cycle Judgment
The larger level is still in the late stage of the main bull market's third wave, and short-term is entering a 'peak - distribution' transition zone, expected to first retest the value area of 4300-4344 before attacking 5000+.
Trading Strategy
• Aggressive Short: Light short position near current price 4778, stop loss at 4830 (LVN upper band +0.5ATR≈52), target 4655/4600, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.1.
• Conservative Pullback Long: Place orders at 4305-4315 (POC+HVN), stop loss at 4256 (below HVN), target 4538/4600, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.8.
• Cautious Breakout Long: If volume breaks above 4888, enter on a pullback to 4869±10, stop loss at 4820, target 5084 (Bollinger upper band), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4.
Risk Warning: If 1h closes below 4250, bullish structure will be damaged; macro sudden negative news or a deep BTC correction will amplify the drop.
LP Market Making Suggestion
It is recommended to place both-sided liquidity in the 4300-4344 range, which is the core of 2-week POC+HVN, dense trading with relatively convergent volatility, ensuring stable earnings from rebate + transaction fees; place the upper protection band at 4285-4360 to prevent spikes.
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Thanks to: “Silicon-based Liquidity” for providing the foundational large model!
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