“ARB breaks below the 0.50 lifeline! Are the whales secretly accumulating? Seize the lightning arbitrage window from 0.49 to 0.52”
【Quick Overview】
ARB was pulled back at 0.49 by the “value anchor” 0.519, after a dual kill of long and short leverage, creating a vacuum of chips. The short-term may replicate the “V-shaped reversal” script from May.
【Key Range Structure】
1. Value Anchoring Zone: POC 0.519, with upper HVN 0.516-0.522 forming solid selling pressure; lower HVN 0.494-0.497 providing a buffer.
2. Low Volume Gap: LVN 0.414-0.416, 0.427-0.433, if the price breaks below 0.48, it may quickly slide to 0.414 within three K-lines.
3. 70% Volume Coverage Zone: 0.382-0.551, current price is in the lower third, and short-term is not oversold.
4. Momentum Verification: Up Vol 52% above POC, HVN 0.494 Up Vol 56%, no single-sided dominance formed, need to wait for volume confirmation.
【Market Cycle】
Mid-term oscillation downwards (7-day OI -7.25%, price -6.73%), short-term oversold rebound window (1h OI slightly increased by 0.18%, long/short ratio rebounded).
【Trading Strategy】
• Aggressive: Current price 0.4919 retesting LVN 0.486±0.002, stop loss 0.483 (below HVN 0.494), target POC 0.519, risk-reward ratio ≈4.3.
• Conservative: Wait for a volume breakout above 0.497 (upper boundary of HVN), enter if it retests without breaking, stop loss 0.492, target 0.516, risk-reward ratio ≈3.8.
• Cautious: If it breaks below 0.483 with volume, short to 0.466 VAL, stop loss 0.488, risk-reward ratio ≈2.1.
Risk Warning: If the 15m closing price returns above 0.519 with Up Vol >60%, immediately stop loss for short positions.
【LP Market Making Suggestions】
Market making with dual currencies in the 0.494-0.516 range, width of 2.2%, covering POC and upper/lower HVN, high probability of filling orders; set ±3% rebalancing threshold to reduce spike risks.
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$ARB
