【Bottom Fishing or 'Home Seizing'?】PROVE plunged 17% after, RSI only 5.2, value anchor 1.23 becomes the lifeline!

Summary: PROVE is crazily testing the edge of 'halving' — the price has dropped below the lower edge of the 70% value zone, yet is closely sticking to the lower Bollinger Band and oversold RSI, with both long and short positions significantly reduced; the market is waiting for either a 'violent comeback' or a 'liquidity vacuum sell-off'.

Key Range and Trading Volume

• Value Anchor (POC): 1.231 (496M traded), strong resistance zone formed at the upper HVN 1.196-1.257; lower LVN 1.752-1.925 is a thin vacuum, once it loses 1.07 it will accelerate down to 0.93.

• 70% Trading Volume Cover Zone: 0.762-1.579; current price 1.096 has broken below this zone's lower edge, in a statistical extreme.

• Up/Down Volume: Up occupies approximately 87% in the 1.05-1.11 range, with short-term passive buying support, but the Down occupies >55% in the upper 1.17-1.23 area, making rebounds easy to stall.

• Bollinger Band: 1h lower band 1.073, middle band 1.138, price is running close to the lower band; MA200 1.276 deviates -14%, clearly oversold.

Market Cycle Judgment

Mid-term: After peaking at 2.02 in February, a 'descending wedge + decreasing volume' bear market structure has formed; short-term: continuous 8-day net capital outflow -7.41M, contract OI -35.7%, in the 'panic end' stage, likely to trigger a short covering rebound at any time.

Trading Strategy (Short-term Quick In and Out)

Aggressive: Buy on a pullback to 1.07±0.005 (LVN edge + double support of the Bollinger lower band), if a 15m volume bullish candle appears and Up Volume >65%.

Conservative: Wait for a pullback to 1.123-1.138 (inside VAL + overlapping HVN) to short, stop loss at 1.145.

Cautious: Chase long after breaking and closing above 1.23 (POC) on the daily, stop loss at 1.21.

Stop Loss: Long at 1.065 (below HVN 1.05 outside 0.5×ATR), short at 1.155.

Targets: Long first look at 1.17 (next HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈2.8; short target 1.02, risk-reward ratio ≈2.4.

Failure: If it breaks down with volume below 1.05 and Down Volume >60%, immediately abandon long; if it breaks above 1.25 with volume, stop loss for shorts.

Like and follow for real-time updates!

Thanks: “Silicon-based liquidity” provided the foundational large model!

Use the invitation code to get 20 million tokens: 6uXvHFfr

$PROVE @Succinct #SuccinctLabs