How to seize the 30% rebound window of 'ASR value return'? The comeback script after the fan coin sentiment hits a freezing point!

Overview in one sentence: ASR is forming a 'V-shaped right shoulder' after being halved from the year's high, with massive trading volume anchoring at 5.08 as the dividing line between bulls and bears. Once the vacuum area of 3.3~3.8 USD regains volume, it may quickly surge back to 5 USD POC for emotional recovery.

Key intervals and trading volume structure

1. Value anchor: POC = 5.084 (the largest trading volume pile in two weeks, 9.85 million units, Up/Down = 1.19), serving as a mid-term balance axis for bulls and bears.

2. High trading volume buffer:

• 5.02~5.18 (four consecutive HVN, total volume exceeds 33 million)——the first deceleration zone for the rebound;

• 7.89~8.05 (distant HVN)——only has measurement significance if it breaks above 5.4.

3. Low trading volume gap:

• 3.24~3.46 (LVN, trading <350,000)——price can cross in one day;

• 6.54~6.90 (LVN)——if it stands above 5.4, it serves as an acceleration springboard.

4. 70% value area: 3.24~8.08; the current price of 3.57 is at the lower edge, RSI 65 is not overbought, still has room for upward adjustment.

5. Momentum validation: In the 3.3~3.8 range, the Up Volume ratio in the last 24 hours is 61%, slightly favoring buyers; above POC, the Up Volume at 5.0~5.2 drops to 54%, indicating weakening bullish momentum, requiring a second volume confirmation.

Cycle positioning

The weekly line is still in a major descending channel, but the daily line shows a combination of 'volume bottom divergence + negative funding rate', considered as the B-wave rebound phase at the end of the bear market.

Trading strategy

• Entry (conservative): 3.35~3.40 retest of LVN, a bullish candle + volume > 1.3 times the average of the previous 20 candles at the 15m level.

• Stop loss: below 3.24, the recent HVN outer edge at 3.22, or entry candle low - 0.5 × ATR (≈0.08).

• Target: First target 5.02 (previous high HVN), second target 5.18 (upper edge of POC), extreme 5.4 (upper edge of the range).

• Risk-reward ratio: Based on the target of 5.02, R ≈ (5.02-3.37)/(3.37-3.22)=11, satisfying >2.

Risk warning

If the daily close falls below 3.2 and LVN trading expands (Down Volume >60%), the rebound structure will fail, and a reverse short position to 2.98 should be taken.

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