BMT is currently lying in the largest “short grave” of the past six months: the price has fallen below the lower edge of the 70% trading concentration area, yet a shrinking doji has formed at 0.0705, with contract positions having net outflow exceeding 54 million for seven consecutive days, resembling the “last long squeeze” at the end of a bear market—once the 0.088 POC is reclaimed with volume, short covering may trigger a rapid rebound of 20%.
【Key Interval Structure】
1. Value Anchoring Area (POC): 0.0888, with 144 million units traded over the past two weeks, accounting for 2.9% of the total, is the “psychological barrier” for bulls.
2. High Volume Area (HVN):
• 0.0749–0.0758: Two dips have been supported, serving as a buffer zone for short-term support;
• 0.0862–0.0875: Dense area for short accumulation, breaking through will trigger a chain liquidation.
3. Low Volume Gap (LVN): 0.0703–0.0712, prices can quickly traverse, suitable for breakout chasing or shorting on pullbacks.
4. 70% Trading Coverage Area: 0.0740–0.0984; current price at 0.0705 is 1.3×ATR outside the range, technically oversold.
【Momentum Verification】
• POC area Up/Down Volume 64:36, bulls still dominate;
• Up Volume near LVN 0.071 is only 38%, short-term sellers control the market;
• After piercing the 1h Bollinger Band lower band at 0.0704, it quickly reclaimed, RSI 30.5 shows bottom divergence, and volume-price divergence indicates rebound demand.
【Market Cycle】
In the “Bear Market End Stage, Consolidating at the Bottom”:
• 14-day net outflow of positions is 114 million, the largest of the year;
• 20% of spot transactions are concentrated at 0.068–0.088, with deepening chip depth;
• Funding rate +0.005%, shorts need to continue paying interest, time favors longs.
【Trading Strategy】
Aggressive: Current price 0.0705±0.0003, buy long with 30% of the position, stop loss at 0.0692 (lower edge of LVN -1.8%), target 0.0749 (first HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈3.8.
Conservative: Wait for increased volume to return to 0.0712 LVN, then buy on pullback without breaking, increase position to 50%, stop loss same as above, target 0.0758/0.0888 for partial profit-taking, risk-reward ratio ≈5.2.
Cautious: Break through 0.0758 HVN and stabilize, then chase long, stop loss at 0.0740, target 0.0862, risk-reward ratio ≈4.1.
【Risk Warning】
If the daily close falls below 0.0692 and LVN shows a volume spike with a bearish candle, the strategy is invalid; watch for deterioration in macro sentiment or selling pressure from project parties.
【LP Market Making Suggestions】
It is recommended to place dual-sided orders in the range of 0.0695–0.0755:
• Lower edge close to LVN, capture panic selling;
• Upper edge near first HVN, capture short-term rebounds;
Range width ≈8.5%, daily average fluctuation 6%, transaction fee income can cover impermanent loss, set stop loss at 0.0685.
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Thanks: “Silicon-based Liquidity” provides the base large model!
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