US market time, how should we operate tonight? Long/Short?
First, let's look at the suggestions
Aggressive traders: Tonight, the Federal Reserve's minutes will be released. Maintain light positions or hedge positions before the announcement. If hawkish sentiments lead to a price drop, you can lightly test long positions after stabilizing at the $113,000 support level; if dovish sentiments cause a price rebound, you can lightly test short positions when facing resistance near the $118,000 resistance zone.
Conservative traders: The current market's technical indicators are weak, and there are significant macro events ahead, creating high uncertainty. It is advised to remain on the sidelines and wait for the meeting minutes to be released and the market direction to be clarified before entering.
Position-less traders: Focus on the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes released early this morning and make decisions after macro signals are clarified. Patience is the best strategy before the direction is clear.
Short-term Bitcoin trend
Current price: $113,973.95 (↓1.39%)
Market structure: The market structure is weak, with sellers dominating. Retail trading frequency in the spot market has surged, but retail participation in the futures market is sluggish, and overall trading volume is cooling, indicating cautious market sentiment and weak leverage willingness.
Liquidation warning: The key resistance level above is at $118,000, which is an important support conversion level from earlier. If the price cannot stabilize, the support below will test the $113,000 level, and a drop below may trigger a new wave of liquidation.
Liquidation: As prices drop and the open interest decreases (-1.54%), it indicates that long positions are being liquidated, with shorts temporarily dominating the market direction.
Operation window
Strong reduction signal: The exchange's whale ratio is as high as 0.98, indicating that whales have a strong potential selling motive; the total net inflow of the exchange is positive (2.01k BTC), and selling pressure is increasing; the MVRV ratio continues to decline, indicating that the market's profit space is shrinking, and valuations are being revised down.
The funding environment is bearish: The funding rate is at a low level (0.007%), and bullish sentiment is weak. The decrease in open interest shows that funds are flowing out of the derivatives market, weakening trend support.
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