In August of this year, Bitcoin once broke through the $120,000 mark, setting a new historical high. However, compared to the frenzy around Bitcoin, most altcoins seem to have hit the pause button—showing lackluster performance, with 90% of small coins still struggling at low levels. Many people have begun to doubt: has the so-called 'altcoin season' already cooled down? It's actually not that simple.
First, let's look at the funding situation. The siphoning effect of Bitcoin is indeed weakening. Data shows that Bitcoin's market cap share has dropped from 60% last November to now 51%. If it falls below 50%, the funds in the market are very likely to start flowing into altcoins. Meanwhile, the total market cap of stablecoins has surpassed $160 billion, and these 'bullets' can ignite at any moment, becoming a powder keg for the altcoin market.
Now let's look at the policy side. The recently issued (Cryptocurrency Sovereignty Act) provides exemptions for certain meme coins, allowing them to temporarily avoid disputes over their securities nature. On the other hand, the SEC's attitude toward staking tokens has also softened, and the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is widely interpreted as a positive for the altcoin market. Once triggered, the gains in altcoins could very likely be several times those of Bitcoin.
The attitude of institutional funds is also intriguing. Traditional giants like Grayscale and BlackRock are quietly positioning themselves in the altcoin space and launching tokenized products linked to government bonds with annual yields between 5% and 7%. At the same time, the Ethereum ecosystem, AI concept tokens, and some low-fee meme coins have become their focus. On the retail side, while there is still FOMO, the sentiment is noticeably more rational than a few years ago, and people are no longer chasing blindly.
Looking back, the ICO craze of 2017 was essentially a nationwide carnival, but in the end, most projects vanished into thin air due to being worthless. By 2025, the dynamics of the altcoin market have completely changed: it’s no longer about storytelling, but about fundamentals, revenue, and technology. In other words, the altcoin season has become a 'game of selecting quality projects.'
So, where is the real breaking point for the altcoin season? Currently, multiple signals point to September: the easing of interest rates, the spillover funds from Ethereum ETFs, and the combined effect of favorable policy narratives could all serve as triggers. However, risks still exist—such as market makers' operations, policy reversals, and liquidity withdrawal, all of which could disrupt the rhythm.
For retail investors, the most important things are mindset and strategy. Don't fantasize that you can get rich overnight with a single bet. When selecting targets, focus on coins with a market capitalization below $1 billion and solid fundamentals, controlling your position to not exceed 30% overall, and ideally not more than 5% in any single coin. Additionally, learn to monitor the wallet movements of large holders on the blockchain, taking profits and reducing positions at the right time, and use options or volatility tools to hedge risks when necessary.
In summary: the altcoin season has not disappeared, but the rules and gameplay have upgraded. Those who can make money are often not the ones who blindly rush in, but those who can see the trends, understand how to select projects and execute steadily. The market is getting smarter; following the crowd is outdated. Only by recognizing the direction can one truly pocket the profits from a bull market.
