August has always been a slow season for traditional financial markets and the crypto market, mainly influenced by US financial holidays, resulting in sparse trading volume and decreased market liquidity. Historically, the performance of crypto assets in August has usually been sluggish, but this year's trend appears unusually strong. Especially Ethereum (ETH), which has managed to maintain a strong rebound despite the general decline in US stocks and the approach of hawkish remarks from Powell, indicating that the market's bottom-fishing sentiment has already started. For traders adept at capturing market rhythms, this undoubtedly provides an excellent buying window.
Looking ahead, the market focus is concentrated on two main lines: macro and policy:
On the macro level:
The trend of US stocks remains a barometer for the crypto market. If US stocks encounter systemic risks or unexpected negative news, the crypto market may be dragged down in the short term, but the long-term bullish trend remains as long as there are no major black swan events.
Interest rate cut expectations are gradually becoming clearer— the time until the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut in September is getting closer, which could be a potential boon for risk assets, especially crypto assets.
The "game" between Trump and the Fed continues, and the subtle interaction between political rhetoric and monetary policy may become a catalyst for short-term fluctuations.
On the policy and industry level:
Regulation of stablecoins is accelerating, and the US regulatory actions on algorithmic stablecoins, reserve transparency, and cross-border payments will directly impact market structure and capital flows.
The progress of ETFs is worth paying close attention to, especially Ethereum ETFs, Bitcoin ETFs, and potential future DeFi financial products ETFs, which will become important channels for institutional capital to enter.
The introduction of DeFi-related legislation will determine the institutional boundaries of the entire decentralized finance sector, and trading strategies and risk preferences need to be strategically planned in advance.
The dynamics of coin-stock projects should not be overlooked either; some high-value, fundamentally solid projects may become targets for the next market trend.
In summary, the current core opportunity in the market lies in the "policy window + price low area," especially ETH and some DeFi projects that offer relatively safe bottom-fishing space. In the short term, operational strategies should still be trend-following: seize the crypto bottom-fishing opportunities brought by US stock pullbacks while keeping an eye on macro news, policy rhythms, and ETF advancement progress to find structural trading opportunities. $ETH
