I looked at the minutes from last month's Federal Reserve meeting, and overall there isn't much new:

It still emphasizes inflation risks > employment risks, and there is uncertainty in the economy. No clear expectations were given for the September meeting.

In the July vote:

11 voting members participated, 1 was absent.

9 agreed to maintain the interest rate.

Only 2 (Waller, Bowman) wanted a 25bp rate cut.

This aligns with our previous assessment — in July, there were only these two votes from the Trump camp within the FOMC. As for September, will more people shift towards the rate cut camp? This is the key point to watch next.

According to the current situation, at least 6 votes are needed to form a stable force. And today, Trump's sudden move against Cook is likely also a game around the votes.