The most important thing to do today is to stay steady.
It’s not about pretending not to see fluctuations, but not letting fluctuations make decisions for you. Over the past 24 hours, the market has gone through 'optimism - divergence - re-testing': bulls haven’t dispersed, the rhythm has sped up, and rotation is fiercer. I lay out my thoughts clearly, speaking plainly and practically.
First, state the conclusion
Today's task for BTC is not to 'perform', but to position: defend the upper edge of the key range, and the sentiment won’t collapse.
ETH still plays the role of 'not soaring but also not dropping quickly'—resilience is there, and rhythm requires time to exchange for space.
Altcoins continue to differentiate with 'the strong getting stronger and the weak getting weaker', structural stocks > emotional stocks.
I set four words for myself: stable, wait, watch, act.
Maintain position quality → Wait for pullback with reduced volume → Watch market making and capital → Then take action.
What signals am I watching today
Stablecoin net inflow: returning to net inflow will make the market smoother; if net outflow expands, do less.
Funding rate & OI (open interest): high rate but price is stagnant = bullish crowding, prioritize slowing down.
Market making depth/spread: stocks that break through two levels should be held lightly today; only add when depth is stable + spread is narrow.
Spot-driven or contract-driven: a rebound led by spot is healthy.
Releases and calendar: who unlocks today/this week should be moved from the watchlist to the avoidance list.
My actual trading rhythm (today's version)
Short-term
Only do 'trial orders on pullbacks with reduced volume', do not chase the first big bullish candle;
Set OCO (take profit + stop loss), tiered take profit for profitable orders, do not get entangled with the market for losing orders.
Swing trading
ETH + core infrastructure to be accumulated in batches, the goal is to lower the cost line;
Emotional stocks only retain 'red envelope positions', take a bite and leave.
Long-term
BTC continues to act as ballast;
Maintain ETH allocation ratio, focus on L2, RWA, AI integration, wait for fundamentals to catalyze before adding.
Two cheat sheets for today's 'entry/reduction'
Three scenarios suitable for entry
Pull back to the key range without breaking and with reduced volume;
Stablecoin net inflow, spot trading proportion increases;
In sector rotation, the leader successfully changes hands (able to stand firm after volume increase).
Three scenarios that require slowing down/reducing positions
Funding rate rising, OI increasing, price is stagnant;
Market making suddenly thins out, spreads widen;
The narrative is hot but liquidity is poor (a typical high open and low close).
Alpha zone: focus on doing two things today
Hold small positions: short window, first secure qualifications (points/claims), assess whether to add after securing the position.
Three conditions must be met to add: improvement in market making, natural growth in on-chain activity, and healthy release rhythm.
Use it all up at once, I keep 20% as maneuvering space, specifically for 'sudden openings'.
Three risk control questions (self-check before market close every day)
Can my losses today be explained by the script? (Cannot be explained = luck when placing orders)
Is my position structure still healthy? (core/satellite, spot/contract ratio)
If a surprising big bearish candle appears tonight, is my stop loss in place? (Not in place = didn’t sleep well)
A sentence written to myself
Don’t race against volatility, befriend rhythm.
Wait for confirmation before acting, wait for inflows before adding, wait for thicker market making before holding longer.
Today's task is not to prove who is smarter, but to leave the position for tomorrow's self.
