This morning, watching the market, BNB has raised the 'altitude line' again.
My first reaction is not to cheer, but to—tighten my shoelaces. Setting a new high is like summit day: the wind is stronger, the path is narrower, and it's easier to slip while taking photos.
First check the 'weather': Is today suitable for climbing?
Water Vapor (Incremental Capital): Stablecoin net inflow and trading volume must rise simultaneously; without water, there are no clouds, and without money, there are no trends.
Air Pressure (Supply Tightening): Are transaction fees, buyback/destruction, and activity lock-up being strengthened? Tight chips mean fewer people on the mountain.
Cloud Layer (Narrative and Rhythm): Are new listings, tasks, and incentives accelerating? This determines whether the wind will change suddenly.
Bad weather, do not attempt the summit; average weather, only go to the next campsite.
Check the 'road conditions': There are no signposts above the peak.
Breakthrough does not equal safety: I only recognize the three consecutive steps of 'breakthrough → pullback → support'. A breakthrough without a pullback is more like the wind blowing up the snow.
Dense Shadows: Mostly chaotic foot placements—I will first tighten the rope (reduce position/leveraging).
Box Oscillation: Reduce at the upper edge, add at the lower edge, and do not get stuck in the middle.
Queue Formation: Three ropes, working hard together.
Bottom Rope (Long-term): Used for wind resistance, maintain a firm grip.
Summit Rope (Trend): Only add a section when a pullback is supported; never chase from the same spot.
Exploration Rope (Trial and Error): New themes/short structures, only use small positions to confirm foot feel, and pull back immediately if wrong.
I usually use a rough ratio of 4:4:2, but the worse the weather, the thinner the summit rope.
Three 'Alerts': As soon as it sounds, pull back.
Crowded Alert: The perpetual funding rate and quarterly basis are heating up together = The cable car is packed with people.
Oxygen Deprivation Alert: Depth shallows, slippage increases = Thin air, one misstep could lead to a plunge.
Falling Rock Alert: Net outflow amplifies + upper shadow line bursts + OI cliff = Someone is being cleared, protect the helmet first.
Summit Climbing Action: Simple, repetitive, can be reviewed.
Entry: Only enter after 'pullback + support volume' occurs; do not make aerial handoffs.
Batching: Three segments of exhalation going uphill, funds also enter and exit in three segments; gulping all at once is most harmful to the lungs.
Protection: Move the stop loss along with the structure; better to be shaken down than to let an avalanche take me away.
My Oxygen Meter (Risk Control)
Maximum loss per trade is 0.5%–1% of the account (consider it as a bottle of oxygen).
Position = Allowed Loss ÷ (Entry - Stop Loss), not 'I feel good today'.
Single Stock -7% cut in half, -12% clear out; if two bottles of oxygen are exhausted in one day, come down.
Three Weather Scenarios: Take it and use it.
Sunny | Continuation Upward: Maintain the bottom rope, add to the summit rope only when a pullback is supported; take profit in stages.
Cloudy | High-level Box: Reduce positions, maintain the bottom rope; operate on the edge, rest in the center.
Snow | Sharp Drop and Pullback: Do not catch the bottom; wait for 'second leg + volume recovery' to test the exploration rope, otherwise only make slight recoveries.
The 7 scales I will focus on today.
Water Level (Stablecoin Net Inflow) | Trading Volume Synchronization | Funding Rate/Basis
OI and Turnover | Market Depth and Slippage (use small trial orders)
Destruction/Lock-up Rhythm | Announcements and Activity Beats
If the mountain is to be collected.
BNB's new high is not the finish line, but a thinner area where it's easier to get lost.
My method is very basic: check the weather, recognize road conditions, and queue formation, using a rope (risk control) to tie myself to the mountain.
Wait for the wind to stop, clouds to disperse, the mountain is still the same mountain—
You're still on the mountain, and that's enough.
Personal perspective, not investment advice.
