Today when I opened my eyes, many friends in the group were shouting, 'It’s over, it’s over, BTC has dropped.' I glanced at the market, Bitcoin was around $113,000, with a slight intraday pullback of less than 1%. To be honest, this kind of fluctuation in the crypto world isn’t even a ripple. But emotions are like this; some people get scared and shake, while others take the opportunity to pick up chips.
I want to talk about the logic behind today’s market and give everyone three points of cold reflection:
1. The root of the decline: it’s not bad news, it’s fear.
What the market is worried about now is macro risk, especially Powell's speech. When the Jackson Hole meeting starts tomorrow, the market fears he will adopt a hawkish stance. So smart money reduces their positions in advance, a typical case of 'sell the rumor, wait for the news'. This is not a new trick; every time a key macro event occurs, the crypto circle goes through a game of expectations.
My judgment is that this wave of selling pressure is more about short-term risk aversion rather than a trend reversal. If it were to collapse, it would have done so during the days of adjustment in the U.S. stock market, not now.
2. The confidence of institutions: OTC reserves are decreasing.
I’ve talked with a few friends in the OTC space, and the biggest change this year is that OTC chips are becoming tighter. Since last year, many OTC traders' Bitcoin inventories have decreased by over 70%, and large orders need to be booked in advance. What does this mean? It means institutional funds are still accumulating, but they won’t chase prices in the public market; instead, they quietly buy at low prices.
When the circulating chips become fewer, if there is a slight increase in market funds, prices can easily be pushed up. Don’t be fooled by today’s drop; in the long run, this supply-demand structure is actually fuel for a bull market.
3. The strategy for ordinary people: don’t chase highs or cut losses, learn to wait.
Many retail investors are led by short-term fluctuations. **Afraid of missing out when it rises, afraid of going to zero when it falls.** As a result, they always buy at high points and sell at low points.
My advice is very simple:
If you are a short-term trader, don’t go heavy, don’t bet on directions, wait until the news settles before looking.
If you are a medium to long-term investor, allocate in batches, invest regularly in quality assets, and don’t stare at the market until your mindset collapses.
Most importantly, control your position; keeping some dry powder will allow you to survive until the market truly starts.
To put it simply at the end.
The crypto market is not a one-day game. Today's pullback is just a warm-up before the macro drama begins. Don’t be swayed by fear, and don’t let short-term noise interfere. Remember, true wealth comes from calmness and perspective when others panic.
I am Morning Light Crypto, an old friend who has been struggling in the crypto circle for many years. No matter how flamboyant the market is, we must stay steady.
Don’t let emotions take charge; be your own captain.
