Don't treat the crypto world like a rollercoaster; I’m more like setting up a tent in the wild: first find water sources, then light a campfire, and finally leave a retreat. The market may change, but these three steps don't change. Below are the methods I've refined over the years in the crypto world, simple, executable, and reviewable.
1. Look for water: There must be water for waves to exist.
I check three things every day; if any one is unsatisfactory, I won't take risks:
• Stablecoin net inflow: Is money coming in? Without money, no matter how beautiful the K-line is, it's just self-indulgence.
• Trading volume and turnover: High volume + high turnover = real funds; High volume + low turnover = performance show.
• Crowding (funding rate/basis): High rates = people crowding at the door; negative rates + rising volume = easy to get caught.
My actions
• Inflows ↑ and rates are not high: add one notch to trend positions;
• Break-even: Only engage in activities/new entries/converging small pockets;
• Outflows ↑ or rates overheating: reduce leverage, quick in and out.
2. Manage fire: Don't let one fire burn the tent.
I refer to risk units as R (maximum loss of 0.5%–1% of the account for each trade):
• Position = allowed loss ÷ (entry - stop-loss), not 'I feel good today.'
• Red line: single stock -7% cut in half, -12% clear out; if daily losses reach 2R, directly close shop.
• Move stop-loss: After making a profit, move the stop-loss above the cost, protect the camp first, then talk about the distance.
Remember: Risk control is the fire circle, strategy is the flame; without the fire circle, no matter how good the flame is, it will be out of control.
3. Leave a retreat: write uncertainties into the process.
I set two alarms + a checklist for myself:
Alarm A: Event calendar
Online, unlock, announcements, event switches… I follow T-2 contingency → T0 execution → T+1 review, no last-minute script changes that day.
Alarm B: Volatility period
15 minutes after the market opens, 30 minutes before and after the Euro/US market switch, I only do 'confirmation orders' (breakout → pullback → support), don't chase the first move.
A checklist (tick before placing an order)
• Check water levels/rates/depth and record.
• Write stop-loss in the order.
• Small test trades to check slippage before scaling up.
• Enter in batches, exit in batches, clear goals and retreat conditions.
4. Three commonly used 'pockets' that beginners can use
1. New/Activity pockets: follow rules to do tasks, occupy quotas in batches; only do 'pullback support' at the opening, do not chase the first candle.
2. Converging pockets: Rates/basis cool down after overheating, make small convergences, light leverage, quick profits.
3. Trend pockets: After a breakout with volume, add positions on dips that don't break levels; if volume shrinks or rates heat up → take profits first.
5. Simple strategies for different types of players
• Beginners: Only engage in 'certain returns' (tasks/airdrops/investments) + major swings; control any single stock with 1R.
• Conservative: Hold the core positions for 'time money', flexible positions for new entries and convergence; reduce in crowded segments.
• Aggressive: Two sets of positions operate independently (trend/efficiency), never borrow money from each other; if losses reach 2R, shut down the computer.
6. Pits I've stepped in (you shouldn't step in again)
1. Hot list immediate rush: Heat = crowding, often follows others' profit-taking points.
2. Keep stop-loss in mind: Real stop-loss is in the order, not just words.
3. Unmeasured slippage: Stocks with deep discrepancies will have their risk/reward ratios hit by reality.
4. Emotional averaging: missing out ≠ loss; using high chasing to average emotions is just averaging losses.
7. 60-second end-of-day review method
• Did I earn direction or rhythm today?
• Is the maximum drawdown within 1R?
• If I mute social media, is my position still rational?
Record the answers in a table, so the next day's self pays less tuition.
Summarize in one sentence
The crypto world is like the wild: look for water, manage fire, and leave a retreat.
Turn trading into an executable, verifiable, and reviewable habit.
Go with the wind when it blows, guard when it stops - you don’t have to be perfect, but you need to be sustainable.
(Personal perspective, not investment advice)
