First, let’s look at the international situation: Zelensky wore formal attire and said "thank you" eight times, while Trump directly announced "arranging a meeting with Putin"—this act is more exciting than a TV drama. But what people in the crypto circle should focus on is not diplomatic etiquette, but changes in geopolitical risk premiums—when the Israel-Palestine conflict escalated last October, Bitcoin rose 12% in a week for a simple reason: global safe-haven funds needed to find "non-sovereign assets" for hedging. Now that Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire, short-term safe-haven demand may cool down, but if after the Tze meeting, Russia and Ukraine can indeed sit down to talk, it may instead boost market risk appetite, which is positive for Bitcoin as a "risk asset."
Looking at the domestic situation again: the A-share Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high in nearly 10 years, with a total market value exceeding 100 trillion. What does this number mean? It is equivalent to multiplying the entire cryptocurrency market (currently about 3 trillion USD) by 10. More importantly, Li Qiang emphasized "stimulating consumer potential" and "consolidating the halt in real estate decline," which sends a very clear signal: the traditional market is competing for funds. What people in the crypto circle need to be wary of is that when the A-shares continue to strengthen, some hot money may flow back from the crypto market to the stock market, especially those retail investors who are using leverage to trade contracts, may reduce their positions in the crypto circle due to the profit effect in the stock market.
Lastly, let's look at the trade situation: the Ministry of Commerce has extended the countervailing investigation into EU dairy products. On the surface, this is a trade friction, but behind it is a rehearsal for the restructuring of the global supply chain. Last year, when the China-U.S. trade war escalated, Bitcoin was hyped due to its "digital gold" properties, but this time the situation is different—if relations between the EU and China tighten, it may accelerate European funds turning to the crypto market for hedging, especially the demand for stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) may rise, which is actually positive for the crypto circle.
My judgment is straightforward: the crypto circle may decline first and then rise next week. There are three reasons: 1. The temporary ceasefire by Hamas is a short-term negative for safe-haven assets, but if there is substantial progress reported from the Tze meeting (such as the time and place for trilateral talks being confirmed), it could reverse sentiment; 2. The new high in A-shares will divert some funds, but if the stock market rises to a high and oscillates, funds may refocus on the crypto circle; 3. The expectation of escalating trade frictions will lead some institutions to preemptively allocate to crypto assets for hedging.
Ordinary investors are prone to making two mistakes at this time: either they panic and follow the trend when A-shares rise, or they rush to sell coins when they see geopolitical news. But true experts will focus on two signals: first, the support strength of Bitcoin around 60,000 USD (which was tested last week but not broken), and second, the premium rate of USDT (currently stable around 0.2%, indicating that funds are not flowing out on a large scale).
Lastly, let me share a true story: last week, a fan followed my method and reduced their position in the crypto circle from 80% to 50% when A-shares reached a new high. As a result, Bitcoin corrected by 5% in the past two days, but they actually made an additional 3%. Is this money earned wisely? Yes, because they know that funds will rotate; they follow trends rather than blindly following the crowd.
Want to know how to operate specifically?
Pay attention to the key to the blockchain, the next issue will share (three related indicators of news events and fluctuations in the crypto circle), teaching you to seize the right timing with the simplest logic! Now reply "related" in the comment section to gain early access to core strategies—there are always opportunities in the market; what’s lacking is people who understand the connections. Are you ready to view news with the right perspective?
