Candlestick patterns are scripted by the market makers, while trading volume reveals the truth! Today, ETH repeatedly tested the 4380 threshold; what hidden conspiracy lies behind the major players?
Technical key point analysis
From the hourly chart perspective, ETH is currently in a triangular convergence pattern, with clear critical levels above and below:
Bullish defense line at 4220: It has rebounded three times without breaking, indicating strong support here. However, if it breaks with volume, it will likely drop quickly to 4060.
Bearish stronghold at 4380: Today, it has already surged to this point three times before being knocked down, with large sell orders appearing each time it approached 4380, clearly indicating that major players are controlling the market.
Bollinger Bands are narrowing (upper band 4308, middle band 4258, lower band 4207), indicating reduced volatility and an impending directional choice.
MACD shows a golden cross below water, but the red histogram is shortening, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening.
RSI at 58, not yet in the overbought zone, indicating that if there is a volume breakout above 4380, there is still room for upward movement.
Support from news or market sell-off?
Today, several crucial pieces of news may impact ETH's trend:
1.
Vitalik Buterin retweeted Layer 2 progress: Historical data shows that each time Vitalik calls a favorable technical signal, ETH averages a 3.2% rise within 6 hours. However, be aware that market makers often use good news to offload (for instance, after the good news was announced on August 15, there was a spike down of 500 points).
2.
Federal Reserve officials signal hawkish stance: Some officials hinted that there may not be a rate cut in September. If market sentiment cools, ETH may follow the broader market's correction.
3.
ETH futures open interest surges: Open interest for ETH contracts on OKX increased by 20% today, indicating that large funds are positioning themselves, possibly brewing a significant market movement.
3. Personal opinion: Major players are playing psychological warfare.
From the order book perspective, ETH oscillated between 4280-4380 today, clearly indicating major players washing out positions:
Case 1: At the beginning of August, ETH consolidated around 4300 for 3 days, then suddenly surged 10%. Many retail investors missed the opportunity by exiting too early.
Case 2: At the end of July, ETH lingered around 4200 for 2 days, resulting in a large bearish candle that dropped it below 4000, wiping out countless bulls.
ETH is currently at a critical turning point: a breakout above 4380 means takeoff, while a drop below 4220 means a waterfall. The fluctuations in between are merely the major players harvesting leveraged gamblers.
Today's operational strategy
Aggressive strategies (suitable for short-term experts):
•
Current price 4280, cautiously try going long, stop loss at 4220, target 4380 (can increase position upon breakout to 4480).
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If it breaks below 4220, go short with a target of 4160-4060.
Conservative strategies are suitable for cautious investors:
Enter after confirming a pullback following a breakout above 4380, or wait for a drop below 4220 and a rebound that fails to surpass 4250 before going short.
If it continues to consolidate, observe and do not participate in the choppy market.
"Do not chase price at resistance levels, do not sell off at support levels, and do not trade in sideways markets!"
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