Federal Reserve officials suddenly take a "hawkish" stance! September rate cut dreams shattered? The crypto market is about to change dramatically!
"A word from the Federal Reserve, and the crypto market trembles! Hamak's splash of cold water has directly extinguished hopes for a rate cut in September!"
How harsh are Hamak's words?
September rate cut probability plummets: from 70% down to 30%, market expectations instantly reversed!
High interest rates persist: The Federal Reserve clearly states "no rate cut", funds will be more inclined towards the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, rather than high-risk assets (like BTC, ETH)
Historical data validation: During the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle in 2022, BTC fell from 48,000 to 16,000, a drop of over 66%! Will this happen again?
The negative correlation between BTC and Federal Reserve interest rates is as high as 0.8 (1 being completely inverse), the higher the interest rates, the easier it is for BTC to drop!
CME futures indicate: No rate cut in September, and the probability of a rate cut in December is only 50%, market sentiment has instantly turned cold!
The big players are already strategizing for harvest.
BTC large transfers surge: In the past 24 hours, 100,000 BTC have transferred to exchanges, possibly indicating that large holders are preparing to sell!
ETH options implied volatility skyrockets, and the market expects significant fluctuations in the short term (either a sharp drop or a sharp rise followed by a drop).
In June 2023, after the Federal Reserve took a hawkish stance, BTC plummeted 10% within 24 hours, with over 500 million dollars in liquidations!
3. What should retail investors do? 3 strategies to cope with the "hawkish storm"
Short-term: Reduce leverage to prevent liquidation from sudden spikes (after Hamak's speech, market volatility will soar)
Mid-term: Wait for BTC to pull back below 60,000 before gradually bottom-fishing (if the Federal Reserve really does not loosen, BTC may test the lows again)
Long-term: Focus on assets that can withstand interest rate hikes
Want to predict the Federal Reserve's next move in advance?
Send a private message to follow Block Key 'Interest Rate Hike' to receive the "Federal Reserve Policy Trading Guide", some fans have successfully used this strategy to escape the peak! #名人MEME热潮
