Bitcoin's first position over the weekend reached a high of 116,938, gaining nearly 1,800 points. Both 800 points and 1,500 points for profit-taking are reasonable; the reminder before sleep is to exit at least to lock in 800 points of profit. The position at 116,400 has already seen a chance to break even; if you don't exit, that’s just greed getting the better of you!
In the last 24 hours, a total of 95,581 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $324 million; long positions liquidated $324 million and short positions liquidated $93.57 million.
BTC
Yesterday, Bitcoin's decline saw considerable trading volume, indicating that selling pressure remains strong, and it is highly probable that it will continue to decline.
The daily trend of BTC has already broken yesterday, and the current hourly trend is a volatile decline. After a night of fluctuation, it rebounded a bit, consuming the liquidity of the upper fvg. Personally, I feel the overall structure is still leaning towards a decline, continuing to monitor tests of 115,000 and even 114,000. As long as the support holds, the daily range is around 11.45-11.85.
The support below is at the 112,000 position; as long as it doesn't fall below this, the daily trend remains upward. So buying at 112,000 is still bullish; if it retraces to this level, you can buy in batches, with a heavy position entry below 111,800.
ETH
After falling below 4,400, Ethereum briefly halted its drop near 4,370 and surged above 4,570. The weekend saw some volatile adjustments, followed by a retreat, and Monday started training everyone to become bears.
Currently, the market has rebounded after falling below 4,300, but I believe the downtrend is not yet over. I can't guarantee it will definitely fall below the 4,000 mark, but it will at least dip near there. So being decisive around 4,200 is advisable, with a heavy position entry at 4,034.
Can ETH rise by 40%?
1. Fusaka Osaka Upgrade
The ETH Fusaka upgrade is set to go live in November: this is a genuine performance enhancement upgrade, with speed increased by 25 times, not the conceptual hype of the past. Historically, each upgrade has almost always triggered a price rise, and this upgrade carries even more weight.
2. Spot ETF Staking Function
The Ethereum spot ETF is expected to be approved in October for staking functions: this means that holding the ETF will also yield about 3% additional returns, which directly surpasses the returns of traditional investments like U.S. Treasuries and Coca-Cola dividends. In this case, how could Wall Street funds not be moved?
I believe these two major benefits will become the core driving forces for Ethereum in the second half of the year. In the short term, there may be a possibility of a pullback, but in the long term, it is building up upward momentum.
Altcoins
In the altcoin sector, almost all have declined. However, compared to the past, it is somewhat different; based on previous trends, this drop would be enough to cause many small coins to crash, but the current situation is not that dire, indicating that leveraged funds are not prevalent in altcoins, while ETH has absorbed most of the liquidity.
Therefore, in the short term, consider buying the dip, but priority should be given to mainstream assets rather than rushing into small coins. Following the funds is a more stable approach.
Dogecoin
Apart from Ethereum's good news, Dogecoin is also about to welcome a surge, as the top crypto giant Grayscale has officially submitted a spot ETF application for Doge, making the approval of Dogecoin's ETF extremely likely. Additionally, Dogecoin has previous spot ETF applications submitted by Bitwise and 21Shares.
These giants were previously approved for spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and this application is certainly not without purpose; the probability of approval is extremely high, with the ETF application results also coming out in October. Therefore, Dogecoin, Solana, ADA, and XRP all have a very high probability of ETF approval in October, and we should try to choose coins with clear benefits.
On-chain
$XDOG, as the leader of the X chain, has shown lackluster performance today with no signs of improvement. The surprise comes from yesterday's lottery coin $XLAB, which skyrocketed 10 times, and surged over 20 times in the early morning, truly deserving the title 'breaking records multiple times,' from a rise to zero and back to a surge.
Many large players are still watching, waiting for officially recognized leaders. Currently, the most profitable remains the accumulation of $OKB. Looking back, the performance of the BSC chain's Donkey $DONKEY has been better. Continuing to wait, a golden dog is sure to emerge.
The market hotspots here need to focus on two directions:
First, Binance has just launched Plume; this is a public chain for RWA, closely related to USD1 and carries topic attributes worth noting.
Secondly, the airdrop opportunities of stablecoin public chains are now visibly attracting many VCs to invest in this track. The enthusiasm is somewhat similar to the previous outbreak of L2 and ZK concepts; those looking to take advantage should focus on this wave. Such tracks where institutions cluster to bet often hide many opportunities.
Before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, every moment is an opportunity; whether you can seize it depends on how quickly everyone acts.
No matter how the market fluctuates, if the main institutions want to unload, they must raise prices. During this process, they will not provide the market with opportunities to buy in at low prices. This reality cannot be changed.
Those who claim the bull market is over, the bear market has begun, and that the main players are unloading are likely already in the market buying long, acting faster than anyone else when it comes to bottom fishing.
