Recently, Pepe has been emphasizing that the decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum is not over, so do not rush to catch the bottom! Last night, the bears continued to exert pressure, and Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged. In the past 24 hours, a total of 128,083 people have been liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $450 million. Pepe has been observing recently and will not open positions until the market reaches the current target levels.
BTC
Bitcoin continued to decline in volume yesterday, currently dropping to around 112,000. However, there are still no signs of a stop in the decline. BTC is pretty frustrating; it doesn't move in one go, it deliberately drops to 112,000 after being 700 U lower! For instance, if it directly falls into the 110,000-112,000 range, I believe there will be a quick rebound, but it purposely leaves a very poor low point.
Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing small level fluctuations downwards. If Bitcoin's bullish momentum continues to weaken during the day, the weekly MACD will form a death cross. This is a large-scale indicator with relatively high certainty; if the weekly death cross is confirmed, it will either be a long period of correction (2024-03 to 2024-08) or a violent decline (2025-01 to 2025-04).
The key support for Bitcoin is at the previous high position of 110500-112000. It must hold to rebound and go long. If it breaks down, it will expand the level of decline, and we will see Bitcoin below 100,000.
ETH
Recently, Ethereum has undergone a severe washout, dropping nearly 20% from its peak. From a daily perspective, the pullback has reached a critical position; the 4160 left-side support is where some people previously chased the market during FOMO. If it breaks here and fails to recover quickly, this support will turn into resistance.
The left shoulder support at 4160 has broken, and the next step is to look at this 4-hour Vegas channel. The last time this channel was broken, it retraced from 3940 to 3352 before starting to rise all the way to 4790. I'm not saying you should go all-in at this hundred times. For this 4-hour level layout, if you are afraid of missing out, you can start with a light position around 4070, add more around 4000, and set a stop loss at 3960.
Just like the 3400 layout at that time, no one can accurately catch the bottom. We can only say that in this range, if you want to capture the profit of that thousand points after 3400, your stop loss must withstand the test; otherwise, you are just a pure gambler.
Altcoin
In the altcoin space, you can strategically invest in quality leaders when prices are low. The logic hasn’t changed; only high-quality leading altcoins will follow the market uptrend. Currently, the rest are all rubbish.
In this round, only coins that are linked to the cryptocurrency stock market are worthy of discussion; other small coins have all died out. Many people are still discussing whether altcoins will rise.
The answer is that most project teams have already given up on their projects, while you are still holding on. Investing in altcoins is more like VC, focusing on people and teams rather than the project itself. If you still believe in the future of altcoins, then go research the project teams thoroughly; only those who execute can qualify for the future.
In fact, every bull market involves significant participation from external funds. As a wave of liquidity exits, the bull market ends. The end of this round depends on when Wall Street can no longer buy. If the U.S. can continue to borrow and print money + cut interest rates to release liquidity, the market can continue to rise; otherwise, it may come to an end.
Recently, it feels like U.S. prices have risen again. The expectation for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is two times; currently, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September exceeds 70%, but in October, it is only 50%. According to Powell's attitude, if CPI rises, there may only be one rate cut. My current attitude towards the market is cautiously optimistic; we must advance while retreating. The louder the calls for a bull market, the greater the noise. Keep your clarity; when the avalanche comes, no snowflake is innocent.
The main narrative of this bull market is everything going on-chain, so future opportunities will lie in RWA and stablecoins. Beyond that, there seems to be no innovation. However, placing everything on-chain requires strong endorsements from institutions or governments, simplifying the intermediate processes through blockchain technology. This will take time to accept and will encounter significant obstacles since it will affect many intermediaries' interests. Therefore, everything is still in development and progress. Thus, there is no need to doubt Bitcoin's status; other coins may just be temporary fads. If you are a long-term investor, continue to hold Bitcoin well, and after a sharp decline, participate in some RWA projects, which may lead to being the alpha in the next round of increases.
