静候花开

The interest rate cut in September is approaching. Even if there is a decline, it will be temporary, and the market will clearly favor a bullish trend in the future. If there is a decline before the rate cut, one can wait for a rise after the rate cut. If there is a small increase before the rate cut, it will continue to rise after the rate cut. If there is a sharp increase before the rate cut, there will be fluctuations after the rate cut. Wait for a drop below the 110,000 position.

Bitcoin Market Analysis
BTC Bullish First Defense Area,
113000-113500 is precarious,
8.12 CPI data is the last lifeline,
Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETF funds continue to reduce positions,
Are you chasing highs and getting trapped, or waiting to buy the dip.
#以太坊ETF连续12周净流入

Suddenly, there's a question: since the previous non-farm payroll was significantly revised down, why has the unemployment rate for the previous two months not been revised up?

After all, with 90% fewer new jobs, the unemployment rate cannot possibly remain unchanged, right?

It's been a long time since I've heard anyone mention the 'Sam' rule?

Throughout history, those amazing people
Many critical moments in life
Even the events actively found them
Unable to escape or push away

Almost every step is a footnote arranged by fate
Like the design of game levels
You can only go that way, no other path

And then, they succeeded, influencing many people

So just do things according to your own feelings
If it's meant to be in your destiny
It will come to you even while you sleep
If not, then so be it
Don't force it

There is still quite a bit of long liquidity below ETH. If the market wants to liquidate, there is still a lot of liquidity that can be cleared...

Currently, the area with the most concentrated long liquidity is around $3500, while the area with the most concentrated short liquidity is at the previous high of $3950. So the logic is clear: either a new high or a local new low...

The last time I sold 30% of my spot at $3638, it has come full circle and returned to the starting point, but I still don't want to rush to buy it back;

From the perspective of market sentiment, it has indeed fully turned pessimistic in the short term, with the funding rate all dropping to nearly 0. However, after such a significant rise, a slight deep correction is also acceptable.

In short, as I said, considering the duration of the current fluctuations, there is far from enough time to digest this new supply and establish a new trend. So let's just let the market continue to fluctuate.

ETH has finally entered a boring phase; lately, it seems there is nothing much to do...

This chart reveals a critical but often overlooked principle: "Breakthroughs shouldn't focus on shadows, only on closing prices."

1. Misconception: Shadow Breakthrough ≠ Valid Breakthrough
In the chart, you can see that the price repeatedly "pierced" key levels but never managed to close above them, ultimately retreating. This is a typical false breakthrough and the root cause of many people's losses from chasing highs.
2. Confirmation: Closing Entity > Shadow Probing
A truly trade-worthy signal must have the K-line entity firmly above the key level, indicating that capital recognizes and the price is stable. This structure is supported by the probability of "continuity" behind it.

3. Strategy: Waiting is not missing out, but filtering
Waiting for closing confirmation may seem conservative, but it is actually the core operational principle of filtering noise and avoiding false moves. In the early stages of a trend, missing out on a portion of the price increase is not regrettable; misjudging the direction once carries the greatest cost.

The risks of the current US stock market must be taken into consideration

💠
From a long-term perspective

The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 has gradually escaped the range of 5-20 since 1990, trending upwards.

This can be described as a process of bubble formation. Although this bubble stems from global confidence in the US market, Nvidia's price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM, trailing price-to-earnings ratio, calculated using the same method as shown above) is 56.97, which means Nvidia's stock value needs to earn nearly 57 years at the current level to realize... this bubble indeed must be taken seriously.

💠
From a short-term perspective

The current price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 (30.37) is close to the peak of 1999 (34) and has already surpassed the level during the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 (26.48).

It is important to note that the price-to-earnings ratios of the S&P 500 were higher in 2000 and 2009 because during the bursting of the internet bubble and the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis, the US stock market fell, but profits fell even more, resulting in a sharp increase in the price-to-earnings ratio as the stock market declined.

Therefore, even without a financial crisis, the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratios of 1999 and 2008 suggest that the US stock market may still have some room for correction compared to the current levels.

💠
In conclusion

I am preparing to try shorting the US stock market. I am still researching and have not opened a position yet. On one hand, the US stock market may continue to rise for a while, so I need to observe for another day. On the other hand, I am also researching individual stocks to find a suitable shorting target.

As for altcoins, the data from the market leader shows that the US stock market has risen by 30% over 14 weeks. Brother Bee calculated that from April 24 to July 31, during these 14 weeks, the total market capitalization of altcoins, excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins, only increased by 26.85%.

The rise of altcoins has not even matched that of the US stock market, and there are signs of correction in the past two days, indicating that altcoins might be ahead of the sentiment and expectations. It seems that shorting the US stock market may have a better cost-performance ratio?

For those who want to short the US stock market or leverage long on it, you can apply to the Mystonks contract test whitelist.

Early morning interest rate meeting
Interest rates meet expectations
However, Powell's speech is hawkish
Indicating that inflation is likely to come from tariff impacts
Before the tariffs are fully implemented
The Federal Reserve will not plan to cut rates in September
Hawkish remarks led to a market drop
$BTC dipped to 115700 $ETH dipped to 3670
Neither broke the support levels given yesterday
Then returned to the range of fluctuations
The supporting funds are still strong
But breaking new highs is not that easy
It requires stronger positive news as a catalyst
Otherwise, it can only continue to fluctuate within the range
From the early morning support, it seems that the big players are also waiting for news
According to Powell's current statement, if tariffs are stable, then a rate cut may happen in September

I never look at the news; I think those who do are newbies! The principle is simple: the main players receive news earlier than retail investors, so the news has already been reflected in the market.

Therefore, I predict that although ETH has entered a daily death cross and a period of consolidation, it will soon (within a few days or at most 1 or 2 weeks) set new highs during the consolidation, and after reaching new highs, it will drop back down!

In July, during these two days, a number of U.S. data
employment rate, unemployment rate, non-farm data, should not be too bad, either meeting expectations or even better.
As for the Federal Reserve interest rate, it should remain at 4.5% this month.
Powell, no matter how stubborn,
has been hard-headed against Trump for half a year,
it’s time to recognize the situation and be wise,
and understand to go with the flow, taking advantage of the circumstances,
preparing for a formal interest rate cut in September.
After all, politicians are all actors, and pulling any of them out can win an Oscar.
The data from these two days, in my opinion, is relatively positive.

Policy-related crashes in the first two bull markets
September 4, 2017 major crash
May 19, 2021 major crash

Do you think there will be major crashes this year like in the previous two bull markets?

From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin has already reached 120,000 USD, and the retail investors holding #BTC走势分析 have very little left, with hardly any friends around who have been holding BTC for a long time!

If BTC breaks through 200,000 USD, the number of people holding #BTC will only decrease, and thus, rising from 200,000 USD to 2,000,000 USD will have no pressure at all!

Perhaps there is no eternal bull market in the cryptocurrency world, but #BTC is very likely to experience an eternal bull market!

Current stocks are like the altcoins of the past

And gradually formed an industry chain similar to the altcoins of 2021

High-control stocks + accumulating various good news + market value management + stock forums/soft articles/stock KOL shout-outs

Stock manipulators collude with former altcoin manipulators

The cryptocurrency market's market value enters the stock market

Therefore, it is increasingly visible that there are fewer and fewer powerful players in the circle willing to take action, especially on-chain

Compared to the stock market, where issuance can be arbitrary and there are more naive investors

In the cryptocurrency circle, being a manipulator not only has fewer naive investors but also various smart Gen Z individuals are picking apart addresses, milking profits, and unloading assets, making everything very clear and also facing legal rights protection

Just like a Hong Kong brother said yesterday

"Other than XQ, I can't find any reason to be a manipulator in the cryptocurrency circle"

Duan Yongping's latest views on Bitcoin and stablecoins:

◦ Bitcoin: I can't understand things that have no cash flow.
◦ Stablecoins: There's some reasoning behind it, but I'm not interested.

Like Buffett, Duan Yongping believes that "buying stocks means buying companies" and shows no interest in assets like gold and Bitcoin that have no cash flow.

Recently, I've been talking to several friends in the internet and US stock circles, and they all have a strong interest in stablecoins, but there are few opportunities to get involved.

I fully understand everyone
BSC has indeed hurt diamond hands
Now everyone wants to run after making money

What I want to say is
Our investment mindset is the source of our profits
If you want to make small money, you won't make big money
If you want to make big money, you won't make small money

Perspective, will not always lose
Don't be afraid of losing ten times, one win is enough
Friendly reminder
$Melis will report the news tomorrow
Don't die before dawn

Epic-level idiot sells out

$vibe feels hopeless and sold 75%

Then bloodbath

These days only posting losses and selling out

For example, admitting to selling out $ikun

This move is called

Bad luck dispersed

No pain, no gain

Earning too much on Twitter

Unless you purely play insider or you are the one starting the market

Otherwise, who can not lose?

Let's show some love to everyone

BTC
The market situation at this position is quite interesting. It has completed a violent breakout, followed by a pullback, and this pullback is quite significant. Now it's a pullback to the trend line support after the breakout.

Bullish around 108800
Stop Loss: 108000
Take Profit: 109500, 110000

LA

Binance alpha adjustment basically in place, the recent market has improved, this kind of currency that goes live with contracts is likely to initiate a market rally.

Current price 0.556