August 19, 2025 Market Analysis
The market continues to move in a range. The volatility over the past 24 hours on the hourly chart has not been low, but the 4200 point support I mentioned yesterday has not yet been broken. Currently, it is showing a range-bound trend, which is consistent with my judgment from the previous days. Therefore, if it continues as expected, it will remain sideways for about another week. A situation where a spike breaks the support cannot be ruled out, but it shouldn't significantly breach 4000. After enough accumulation during the consolidation and the short-term bullish sentiment being worn down, a new round of increases will begin. The next target, and also the biggest challenge ahead, remains the pressure zone of 4800-5000 points. Next, let's take a look at the situation of both the bulls and bears.
First, let's talk about the bears. Apart from the uncertain chips after a short-term surge, the main thing entering the market now is the Ethereum waiting in line to exit staking. Since many institutions or large holders bought the dip and staked when it fell below $2000, there are quite a few people waiting to exit recently. According to data from the third-party site beaconcha.in, the number waiting today has slightly increased, currently accumulating 900,000 Ethereum, with a total value close to $4 billion. Of course, we all know that not all of these 900,000 are for sale; some are to reduce leveraged loans, and some are to maintain liquidity, possibly waiting for a higher point to sell. However, objectively speaking, a certain proportion of these are in a hurry to sell, which is also the largest visible selling pressure for the next half month.
Let's take another look at the bulls. Currently, the top player in Ethereum micro-strategies is BMNR. According to the company's financial report, the pace of purchasing Ethereum significantly accelerated last week, with BMNR's ETH holdings increasing from 1.15 million to 1.52 million, a net increase of about 370,000 ETH, costing nearly $6.6 billion. Didn't I mention last time that this big player plans to issue $20 billion in stocks to buy ETH? I checked the latest progress, and the SEC has already approved it. Next, it depends on whether investors buy into it, and on the 12th, they issued $2.45 billion in stocks simultaneously. The current amount of ETH held by BNMR accounts for 1.26% of the total. Given this situation, it seems they are aiming to ultimately take the title of Ethereum micro-strategy, with the final holding ratio potentially exceeding 5%.
The data for both bulls and bears has been presented. Of course, there are some potential selling pressures or bullish forces that are not all transparent. However, through the representation of the two largest forces, we can have a general view of the upcoming market. If we only look at the data on the surface, the bulls are still slightly ahead. However, BNMR's $20 billion increase will take a long time to complete, at least half a year to as much as 1-2 years to finish all financing, but this will definitely be an important source of market confidence. In the short term, I hold a relatively conservative view. Since the breakout to a new high failed, the best tactic is to gather enough strength before attacking again. Therefore, a reasonable market would be to consolidate for a few more days before breaking through.
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