币姥爷

There may be some who profit, but they are few!

Analyze the trading of $MYX , hoping to let more people see it and avoid pitfalls.
First, let me briefly explain what MYX Finance does. It is an on-chain derivatives exchange that focuses on perpetual contract trading. When I previously analyzed dYdX, I compared the current rankings of perpetual contract businesses and found that MYX does not rank at all, so from a value perspective, this project is considered below average. So why has MYX been able to surge from a sideways price of 0.05 to a maximum of 2 dollars in the past few days, with a maximum increase of over 40 times? The answer is simple: highly controlled trading!

Currently, MYX has a circulation of 124.8 million. The ability to pull up like this indicates that when it was sideways at the 0.05 price range, the main force absorbed most of the spot chips. MYX has only launched on alpha and second-tier exchanges. After absorbing the chips, the main force opened a large number of long positions in the contract market, and then, by controlling the spot price, crazily pulled the market, forcing the opponents to cover their shorts. Those who shorted know that for a project like MYX, the total market value is not worth the current 2 billion, let alone 200 million, hence the furious short selling. However, they overlook that when the spot chips are in the hands of the main force, the price is no longer subject to normal market adjustments.

The biggest weapon of perpetual contracts is the funding rate. When opponents short the contract, the main force continues to pull up the spot and ensures that the spot transaction price is always higher than the contract price, pushing the funding rate to the extreme, which is currently seen as -2% per hour (meaning the short side subsidizes the long side with 2% of the position's funding per hour). Short sellers face both unrealized losses and high funding costs, and the initiative is completely in the hands of the project party (the main force).

According to the data from Surf, in the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount has reached as high as 12.84 million, and with unrealized losses and active liquidations, the amount is even greater. From the capital volume of the liquidated users, it can be judged that they are retail investors. Perhaps many have already seen many people sharing data on their liquidation losses. For projects like this, the only advice I can give is: do not touch it! The chips are in the hands of the project party, the data are in the hands of the project party, and the initiative is also in the hands of the project party. Why do you think you can win? I’ll say it again: do not touch it!

Hong Kong stablecoin has some awkward aspects, with 2 main pain points.

1. Real-name KYC, user information retention for over 5 years, and more critically, a prohibition on entering DeFi scenarios and anonymous wallets. — I don't understand, since this is a stablecoin, why are the regulations so strict? I can't see the difference between this and the digital RMB that was withdrawn from the mainland earlier. Ultimately, isn't it just a variation of fiat currency? Additionally, why are US dollar stablecoins USDT and USDC so popular? Besides the special application scenarios and trading platforms, the contributions of DeFi applications cannot be overlooked. Without the earning function of DeFi, what is the motivation to hold Hong Kong dollar stablecoins? Are we really going to do KYC?!
2. Must have a license. Any institution issuing or providing fiat-backed stablecoins targeting local retail in Hong Kong must have a license. The first application round ends on September 30, with the first batch of licenses expected to be issued in early 2026. This means that USDT and USDC must apply for a license to develop in Hong Kong, following a 1:1 reserve system, and more importantly, they need to be custodied in isolation. I find it questionable; USDT will definitely not comply with this. The reserves of USDT are in Bitfinex and their own hands. How could you possibly manage hundreds of billions in government bonds? Does Tether seem foolish with so much money?

Since development is the goal, it should have been inclusive and open from the start, following traditional financial practices, which is rather pointless. Therefore, the impact of Hong Kong stablecoins on the crypto circle can be ignored; the benefits equal zero, and it may even have side effects. #稳定币热潮

I did some financial management with HUMA. Currently, HUMA has a circulating market cap of over 50 million, a total market cap of over 300 million, and a circulating supply ratio of 17%, which means there are still plenty of tokens allocated for future stakers. A few months ago, I saw HUMA and initially planned to stake, but later I got worried about the risks and didn't go through with it, missing out on airdrop gains. This time, I’ll invest 50,000 USDT to see the actual effect. If the second phase of the airdrop yields good returns, I’ll add more.
The main risk with HUMA is that its business model is RWA debt, simply put, it’s about borrowing money and earning interest. Therefore, it’s not purely on-chain financial management, which raises concerns for pure blockchain enthusiasts, as the human factors involved are hard to assess, and that's why I don't dare to invest too much.
Currently, the staked amount in HUMA is 80 million US dollars, which is not particularly high. Based on estimates, the maximum APY currently is 20-30%, higher than other DeFi protocols, but the corresponding risk is slightly higher as well, making it an optional financial management choice.
In practice, you need to transfer USDC to the SOLANA chain and stake on the HUMA official website. If the amount is substantial, you can open a small account, first stake 1,000 USDT, then invite your main account. If the amount isn’t large, you can also use my XWSc77 directly. After stablecoins and RWA rise, there should be more staking projects emerging. Everyone can earn USDT, sell at a high point, and do these projects, which can yield profits and help with profit-taking.

#HumaFinance @Huma Finance 🟣

$SSV Today, let's talk about the @ssv network project, which is an important foundational protocol in the Ethereum ecosystem's re-staking track (LSD) and is quite representative.

First, let’s discuss the current situation of LSD. LDO still holds a leading position (Figure 1), with a market share exceeding 60%. However, compared to its peak, this has declined somewhat. Additionally, platforms like Binance and Coinbase have increased their market share significantly due to their asset and security advantages. Overall, the valuation of the LSD sector has seen a considerable decline compared to before, and thus the price adjustment of SSV, while it has dropped significantly from its relative high, is still at a reasonable level when compared horizontally.

Next, let's take a look at SSV. As one of the strongest decentralized LSD representative protocols, there are currently $14 billion worth of ETH staked through the SSV protocol. However, since most of SSV's staking is implemented through upper-layer protocols, it does not independently reflect TVL. SSV is currently the highest-ranked decentralized LSD protocol in terms of TVL, and its no-threshold entry mechanism along with the F1+F2+F3 tiered fee structure will continue to occupy a certain market share in this sector.

In terms of price, SSV is currently between $8-10, with a market capitalization of over $50 million and a total market cap of over $100 million, making it relatively undervalued. Regarding revenue, SSV currently only generates annual income at the million-dollar level, so its current market cap is more about future expectations. Since SSV’s operator service fees and others are paid through SSV, it can create certain buying pressure, and as the network develops, SSV’s market cap will also grow. As an LSD protocol of Ethereum, its value is not only directly related to market share, but another key factor is the price of Ethereum. Therefore, holding SSV long-term is also a way to bet on Ethereum.

In summary, I believe SSV is a good project to hold. The recent rise of Ethereum has not directly driven the rise of the LSD sector, which is objectively unreasonable. If Ethereum's price can achieve a significant breakthrough, such as stabilizing above $5,000 in the long term, it is highly likely that the LSD ecosystem can keep pace, making it relatively easy for SSV's price to reach $20-30.

In the comment section of $DYDX , someone mentioned dYdX, which is quite representative. What is the current situation of this former leader in on-chain contracts? Let's continue to use AI analysis tools to take a look.

dYdX, an old project from 2017, was initially built on the Ethereum chain and later constructed its own chain using Cosmos SDK technology. During the dYdX airdrop, both trading volume and price skyrocketed, enjoying a brief period of glory, but now, times have changed.

From the official website, we can see that in the past 24 hours, the total contract trading volume was 330 million. In comparison, hyperliquid has a trading pair of only BTC, with 5-6 billion, which is nearly 20 times that of dYdX. However, I checked, and GMX's trading volume is just over 200 million, so compared to that, dYdX's trading volume is still relatively acceptable.

Overall, I personally rate dYdX quite low. Firstly, dYdX's market capitalization still exceeds 400 million, but the on-chain perpetual contract market has lost its leading position, with hyperliquid currently holding over 80% of the market, indicating that the perpetual market is a field with significant head effect. Therefore, I do not recommend investing in dYdX anymore.

For friends who already hold dYdX, considering that dYdX currently allocates 100% of its protocol income (distributed to node stakers, liquidity providers, and the treasury), there is a certain degree of user stickiness. At the same time, the current trading volume has not significantly shrunk, and there are also ongoing trading incentive activities recently. Therefore, this round of market conditions can still be expected, but do not have overly high expectations, and long-term holding is not recommended. As for the price, currently at 0.5, without considering speculation, it is suggested to gradually sell when it exceeds 1 dollar, and if it reaches 2 dollars, it is recommended to sell off completely.

The above is my personal opinion and is for reference only. I will analyze more individual coins in the near future, so feel free to leave comments about coins you are interested in.

$UNI Price Prediction & Uniswap Project Analysis
Recently, there have been many inquiries about the price of UNI. As the most important cornerstone of DeFi and the most widely used decentralized trading protocol, Uniswap has always been favored by many investors. Today, I will borrow Surf's analysis to share a few key points.
1. In terms of price, UNI was around 4-5 dollars at the beginning of the airdrop. During the most fervent period of DeFi Summer, which was the peak of the last bull market, it surged to 45 dollars, becoming the highest price in history. During the subsequent bear market, it fell to a low of 3.33 dollars, a drop of over 90%. In the following rebound, it peaked close to 20 dollars last December, showing a strong rebound even without a DeFi recovery.
2. In terms of market share and trading volume, Uniswap has basically locked in its leading position, while other protocols primarily rely on forks. In terms of innovation, Uniswap has always been at the forefront. The last protocol-level innovation was V4-Hook: customizable deployment of liquidity pools, which has generated a total revenue of 41.6 million dollars since its launch.
3. The explosion of UNI's price has many triggers, one of which is the protocol-level fee switch. In the future, it will first be trialed on ETH-stablecoin pairs, with 10-25% of transaction fees allocated to UNI holders. Based on the current market size estimate, Uniswap can generate 1 billion dollars in transaction fees annually.
4. The opening of the protocol-level switch has uncertainties; however, from the perspective of front-end fees, the current fee amount exceeds 56 million dollars. Therefore, I personally speculate that as the most important switch, the Uniswap community will be extremely cautious. Losing a large number of users for the sake of fees would be counterproductive, and it is expected that they will wait further to solidify their leading position in the DEX space.
5. Price Prediction: This is the question everyone asks the most. According to Surf's predictions, there are three price tiers.
*** If the bull market runs normally: then this year, the peak price of UNI will be between 20-30 dollars;
*** If the bull market + fee switch is activated, the peak price of UNI will be between 30-45 dollars;
*** If the bull market + fee switch is activated + DeFi fully recovers, the peak price of UNI can reach 70-100 dollars.
Based on my personal judgment of the market trend for the second half of the year, the probability of UNI breaking 20 dollars this year is extremely high.
PS: The above is merely an analytical opinion and should not be considered investment advice.

Introducing BounceBit, a BTCFi Layer 2 project on the BSC chain. Users can deposit BTC onto the BSC chain for staking to earn yields. With the development of RWA this year, especially as stablecoins are being strategically positioned by various parties, BounceBit has also started its RWA ecosystem layout.
What is the most important aspect of the RWA field? Of course, it is compliance. Considering this, BounceBit Prime was born with the backing of BlackRock and Franklin Templeton, allowing users to obtain yields from tokenized real-world assets in a compliant manner through BounceBit Prime.
In this way, BounceBit bridges the needs of both on-chain and off-chain investors. On-chain, the focus is primarily on yields from assets like BTC, while off-chain leans towards institutional investors, emphasizing compliance to access real-world assets. This is also a competitive track that many projects are currently engaged in.
@BounceBit #BounceBitPrime $BB

Using AI tools specifically designed for cryptocurrency projects, I analyzed the reasonable valuation of WLFI, and the reasonable price is around 0.1, which corresponds to a total market value of 10 billion. I think this is already quite reasonable.
However, the current off-market price has been inflated to around 0.2-0.3, and I can only say this is the kind of madness that comes with a bull market. There is still about a month until WLFI goes live. Let's wait and see.