币姥爷

Please be informed:

May 3, 2025

Recently, there have been numerous scandals surrounding Mevoment. It is reported that co-founder Rushi Manche has been suspended by the foundation. Notably, Coinbase has announced the delisting of Move, indicating that the Move project team has not been handling things well, to the point where even Coinbase had to announce the delisting.

For such projects, my stance is to not give any more chances and to not trust any of the project's statements. The cryptocurrency space lacks regulation, leading to a mix of good and bad projects, and with so many projects out there, there is no need to give any second chances to those who have committed wrongdoings. In the crypto world, risk should always be the top priority; if risk control is done well, money will naturally follow.

In terms of market trends, there haven't been any significant changes during the May Day holiday, but I consider it to be stable with a slight upward movement, which is a good sign. Moving forward, if the trend does not break, it will continue to rise amidst fluctuations. Personally, I have been somewhat laid-back with my operations lately, especially during the recent holiday, so I will see if there are any fluctuations after the holiday.

Thank you for your attention, and there will be more updates soon.

May 1, 2025

Happy Labor Day to everyone! I don't know how everyone spent this long holiday, but I, Grandpa, returned to my hometown, a small county city. One observation is that the current county city is becoming the commercial center and population gathering place for surrounding rural areas and towns. The population gathering is due to urbanization and considerations for children's education, as families are migrating towards urban areas as much as possible. The commercial center is a byproduct; after all, economic vitality exists where there are people.

Regarding the commercial center, I noticed a significant difference compared to twenty years ago, which is that the commercial center is gradually replacing the original pedestrian street model, or in other words, the market share is increasing. I speculate that one main reason is that the younger consumer group today is unwilling to brave the heat or cold to shop outdoors, and over time, the flow of people has shifted towards commercial streets.

Of course, the original shop model is still the mainstream of commerce in small county cities, but the entire commercial landscape is changing. However, I believe that the rise of the mall model is also squeezing small businesses; if you visit a few malls, you'll notice a severe homogenization, and the traces of capital operations are evident. Lastly, children are the main consumers.

As for the market situation, there’s nothing special to report, so today I’ll just share my observations and thoughts. Time flies, and it's already May. Fortunately, the market trend is becoming healthier, and it is expected to continue for two months, with a great opportunity to start the second half of the year's market in July, aiming to reach new heights in the second half of this year. Let's wait and see.

Wishing everyone a happy Labor Day.

Take a day off, Happy May Day.

April 29, 2025

Recently, the alpha points that Binance is promoting have become quite popular. There is a 15-day cycle, continuously raising the airdrop and TGE point requirements. Since it is essentially free, it has attracted the attention of many studios. I still suggest everyone participate, as it's a low-cost opportunity, and it would be even better if relatives and friends joined in. I've calculated that I've made several thousand U recently.

With Binance doing this, it actually brings a lot of new projects. However, the altcoin market has already been like this; how much more can it drain? Of course, this also reminds us that as new altcoins keep emerging, we shouldn't have too much faith in them. We should eat when we see a clear opportunity; otherwise, it's better to stick with the mainstream old coins.

In terms of market conditions, Ethereum has yet to effectively break through $1800, but the altcoins have recently shown a slight alternating rise. Therefore, I am quite looking forward to the upcoming market. This includes the AI sector, which was previously stuck, but has recently started to recover and generate profits, indicating that market confidence is returning.

Thank you for your attention.

April 28, 2025

Next week, there will be some important data releases, including the U.S. first quarter real GDP, core price index, and Japan's interest rate decision. Overall, the current pace of interest rate cuts is slowing down. If the economic data does not show significant issues, we can still expect two rate cuts this year. This data may not directly stimulate the market, but considering Trump's push for rate cuts, if the cuts exceed expectations, it will boost market confidence.

In recent market movements, it can be seen that market confidence is gradually recovering, at least not continuing to move in one direction. This will disrupt the previous trend of one-sided declines. Therefore, if one insists on waiting for lower prices, they may miss opportunities, even missing out on a significant market rally.

The core reference for the cryptocurrency market remains Bitcoin. When Bitcoin rises back above 90,000, it indicates that capital continues to have a bullish outlook on Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has previously been following an independent market trend, it is undeniable that there has been some capital overflow driving altcoins; otherwise, new coins would not have such high market values. Based on this, the upcoming market is also worth looking forward to.

Of course, altcoin prices are actually at a low level, especially Ethereum's price, which is still very weak compared to Bitcoin. The altcoin market still needs hot topics to drive it. For example, the previous surge of SOL to 300 was primarily due to the popularity of memes. Thus, our bets on altcoins largely depend on hot topics and major players getting involved.

Thank you for your attention.

April 27, 2025

Recently, the market has indeed been quite good, even ETH has led the way a little. Given the previous performance, I no longer dare to boast about Ethereum's market. As I write this, I'm thinking: Could this also be a bottom signal? In fact, I wonder if everyone has had the realization that market rises and falls are not entirely determined by value, especially for cryptocurrencies, where currently only a handful of projects have commercial value. But what is the core of the rise and fall?

Especially for the factors affecting short-term markets, it can be summarized in one word: "funds". To put it more directly, it's whether there are manipulators. Perhaps when we talk about market manipulators, our reaction is one of deep disdain, thinking they are not a good thing. But objectively speaking, the funds that manipulators possess are the biggest factor affecting prices. Whether it’s the fierce trading of Alpaca in recent days or the rise of TRUMP, there are unseen hands manipulating the prices behind the scenes.

If we accept this, then we should not be overly sensitive to prices. While paying attention to long-term prices, we should not become targets of manipulation in the short to medium term. As long as the assets we hold have value, manipulators will eventually come to operate here. Once a coin becomes a target for manipulators, the rise and fall of the market will happen very quickly. This value is multifaceted—commercial income, traffic, and even chip structure can be factors. As long as it has the value of manipulation for the manipulators, it’s enough.

In any case, the recent market is developing in a better direction, especially as the impact of tariffs has been digested by the market. So just be patient and wait. In fact, during such times, the market is also quite difficult to handle because after experiencing the panic of a deep bear market, it's easy to sell when the market goes up, as it's uncertain whether it's a rebound or a reversal. If you have this concern, I would suggest holding a portion of your position to prevent missing out on a significant market movement.

Thank you for your attention.

April 26, 2025

Regarding the alpha points mentioned yesterday, many people could not find the entry, so let me clarify. Go to the Binance homepage, click on 'More' — scroll down to find the 'News' section, the last one is Alpha Points, and you can see the details there. There are two rules for increasing points: the first is holding positions, and the balance in the exchange also counts, the second is trading alpha tokens; you can find the corresponding section for alpha in the assets interface, just pick any token in there, and you can trade a certain amount daily. It is recommended to buy and then sell immediately, just incurring a small fee; tokens with better depth can be selected, like fartcoin.

Recently, Binance has been heavily promoting alpha, and there are definitely opportunities, but if you ask which specific token to buy, I haven't researched that yet. Moreover, it is quite difficult to layout individual altcoins. If you are going to buy, I might suggest selecting a few to bet on an overall increase. Regardless, given the current situation of new tokens being listed, although in the long term it will dilute market funds, there will still be opportunities for a wave of market movement in the short to mid-term. Once alpha forms a 'man-made bull market', I believe there will be significant opportunities in the second half of the year.

If you pay attention or already have positions, you should have noticed that many tokens have started to rise slowly recently, including various tokens that had plummeted before, even TRUMP has started to rally. There are also other altcoins, like Zerebro mentioned a few days ago, as well as the AI sector, which have all seen considerable rises compared to their lowest points. Of course, this is relative to their previous prices that had fallen drastically, not to say that these tokens are inherently strong, nor that they are easy to profit from; on the contrary, these tokens are quite difficult to make money from.

Additionally, in the past two days, alpaca has shown obvious strong market manipulation, allowing for brainless rallies and short squeezes. Various signs indicate that after several rounds of continuous declines, the major players have accumulated a large amount of chips, which I see as an important bottom signal. Besides altcoins, Bitcoin has also risen above 90,000 USD, and Ethereum has reached 1,800 USD, with the entire market moving in a positive direction. However, I do not recommend acting too hastily; a fluctuating upward trend is the market scenario I hope for the most.

Thank you for your attention and likes.

April 25, 2025

Recently, Binance has been aggressively promoting Alpha. Everyone can search for Alpha Points in the search box to see their own points. The Binance Web3 wallet new listing today from 4-6 PM has a threshold filter based on points, requiring no less than 45 points. It is evident that Binance is focusing on promoting the development of Alpha from both strategic and resource allocation perspectives. In light of this, I suggest everyone pay attention to the potential development of the BSC ecosystem, such as Cake. Of course, the most efficient and safe way is to participate in the new listing, which can be done at a small cost to earn some points.

This wave of Alpha has strategic significance not only in bridging CEX and DEX but also in regaining control of the DEX entry. Another goal is to lower the valuation of new projects. Projects in the Alpha sector win by volume, directly driving the circulating market value of projects down to the tens of millions of dollars. This effectively protects investors because the downside risk is relatively smaller, and quality projects also have sufficient growth potential.

It can be predicted that tokens in the Alpha sector will become an important source for future listings on Binance’s spot market, creating a new field for value discovery. However, due to the varying quality of altcoin projects, some projects may directly face extinction, making selection crucial. I will also delve into this topic when I have the opportunity.

In terms of market conditions, the current market is already sufficiently rational, even overly so. Coupled with Binance's recent operations, the market cap for listings on Binance has also dropped, providing a broad stage for a possible bull market in the second half of the year. Now, we may be in a period of transitioning between bull and bear markets. If there is volatility, it may take a few months, but a gradual upward trend during this volatility would be the best scenario. Let's wait and see.

Thank you for your attention and likes. Join in the wallet new listing from 4-6 PM.

April 24, 2025

Supported by Tether and SoftBank, Twenty One Capital has launched the world's largest Bitcoin strategic reserve, planning to start with a holding of 42,000 Bitcoins. Perhaps seeing the sweet rewards from MicroStrategy's continuous Bitcoin purchases, including Tether taking 15% of its profits to buy Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, more consortiums are targeting the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin.

The value reserve status of Bitcoin can be said to be on par with gold in this round of performance, and the strategic reserves of high-tech companies and consortiums in Bitcoin will make this consensus even stronger. Imagine, when the Federal Reserve and major consortiums hold Bitcoin, how many will stand up to oppose it in the future? Those insignificant comments will eventually be drowned in the dust of history, only to see the price and investment status of Bitcoin soaring ahead.

In this round of market, the strong rebound in Bitcoin's price has also driven the overall rise in the cryptocurrency market. Notably, yesterday Trump announced that the top 25 holders of TRUMP can have dinner together and attend a special party for free. This marketing strategy is quite impressive, equivalent to Buffett's lunch, and this old man is indeed a marketing veteran; the price of TRUMP doubled directly.

This market is definitely heading in a good direction. After a wave of increase yesterday, there was indeed a slight pullback, but the pullback was very small, which is also a good signal. When you buy low-priced chips, you will feel more relaxed during the rising market, whether to trade in waves or to reduce positions, making it easier to operate. Of course, this position is still far from our target; we will continue to wait patiently.

Thank you for your attention and likes.

April 23, 2025

Trump backs down, everyone is happy. Trump stated that he will no longer pressure Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to resign, and he believes that the previous 145% tariff imposed on China was too high and will be significantly reduced moving forward. The tariff stick is a weapon Trump uses to threaten other countries, and it also aims to lower interest rates. After minimal effect from both, Trump has started to soften his tone. Although he is a volatile president and this state may not be the norm, the market is still showing very strong performance.

Affected by the news, after Bitcoin successfully surpassed 90,000 yesterday, the overall market performance was very strong. Ethereum's rebound has been quite good, reaching 1,800 USD, and SOL has also risen to 150 USD, with a rebound exceeding 50% from the relative low. It is also worth mentioning that some altcoins have started to act up; I checked a few new coins I bought, like ZEREBERO which has nearly doubled, and there are others that I won't list one by one. I can only say that when the market was very panicked a few weeks ago, the main players accumulated enough chips at low positions, and now they are active when the market is good.

Those who followed me with a heavy or even full position should have gone through a period of torment, but seeing today's market, their mood should be exceptionally good. To put it in a cliché and simple way, it’s a rainbow after the rain, exceptionally beautiful. Of course, whether this wave of market constitutes a direct reversal, I still hold a conservative view. Therefore, in terms of operations, I will stick to the planned strategy and sell 10-20% of my position first, especially those with decent profits.

However, I believe that the significance of focusing on whether it’s a rebound or a reversal is not particularly great right now, because even if it’s a rebound, the overall price level is still at a low position. Whether to act in this wave depends on one’s position and mindset. Moreover, for Ethereum, I have not yet recouped my investment; my target price for bottom-fishing Ethereum is 10,000 USD during a bull market, and I might sell some around 4,000-5,000, but I will definitely not sell now. The upcoming market may not rise directly in one go; it’s more likely to move 2-3 steps forward and then retreat 1 step, but the low point of 408 is almost the lowest point of this round.

Thank you for your attention and likes.

The market seems to be improving

Take a day off today, Binance web3 wallet has a new listing, remember to participate.

April 21, 2025

Yesterday, the Bitget incident caused quite a stir because there was an issue with a market-making bot for one of the coins, resulting in extremely high-frequency price spikes within 10 minutes. Many people seized this opportunity, trading back and forth with a small amount of capital, and since it was a contract, they could leverage it many times over. It is said that some people made hundreds of thousands to millions of USDT. Although Bitget promptly identified the issue and temporarily restricted withdrawals, a few individuals still managed to successfully withdraw, capitalizing on this unexpected windfall.

This is not the first time such an incident has occurred, nor will it be the last. I mention this not to stand on a moral high ground to criticize those who exploited the loophole, nor to condemn Bitget's intervention, because everyone acts from their own interest perspective, and there is no right or wrong. In my view, this is a form of arbitrage; it was precisely because of BG's mistake that an arbitrage opportunity arose, which was ultimately exploited by some.

I have always said that the cryptocurrency space is still an early and chaotic environment. A typical example is this BG incident, where a prominent exchange's market makers can make such a basic mistake. This illustrates how 'irregular' this space is. Of course, no industry can completely avoid errors made by people or machines, but in the financial sector, a mistake can directly lead to bankruptcy.

I once said that staying in this space as much as possible is due to the opportunities created not only by the positive incremental development of the industry but also by many basic errors like BG's. Just from the perspective of a retail investor, if one happens to encounter a godsend opportunity like BG's, then manages to profit and successfully withdraw, and there are no subsequent repercussions, then you are successful. In the financial world, the winner takes all; everyone must pay for their mistakes, and exchanges are no exception.

Market-wise, in a nutshell: waiting for a slow rise. Thank you for your attention.

April 20, 2025

I wonder if everyone has noticed that the market seems to be quietly warming up, although the strength is not great and is only partial. First, SOL has returned to $140, knowing that it had previously dropped below $100, a rebound of over 40% is, in my view, a relatively good signal, especially considering the lack of confidence in the market. SOL is the main player in these two rounds of market movements; if SOL strengthens, it to some extent represents the dynamics of the main funds in the crypto space.

Additionally, regarding altcoins, although they indeed had a very severe drop before, with a decline of 90% no longer being particularly unusual, there have been some altcoins making notable moves recently, and occasionally, there are instances of futures prices being inverted compared to spot prices. This reflects the main players pushing the spot market; due to the current poor depth, the main players often manipulate the market using futures as well. This actually resonates with what I mentioned earlier, that the difficulty of altcoins is extremely high, as the initiative is basically in the hands of the main players—they can drive prices up or down at will.

In this market, opportunities are definitely limited. The most appropriate strategy now is to lay out long positions and minimize short-term actions. It’s okay to set up some swing trades, but it’s unnecessary to invest too much time and energy into short-term trading; during bad market conditions, the more one fiddles, the more losses one may incur. At this position, market confidence is not very strong, but due to observable signs of main player actions, if the short-term trend continues to slowly increase prices amidst fluctuations, then it may be worth considering to follow and be bullish.

There isn’t much to talk about lately; overall, I still focus on recharging everyone’s faith and boosting morale, because based on past experiences, holding coins at the current price will definitely yield good returns in the future. If you feel that the current market is not very good, then look at the long-term prospects, or take advantage of the nice weather to go out more, see more, and enjoy life outside of investing; this can be a form of investment strategy.

Thank you for your attention.

April 19, 2025

Recently, Trump has been in a "heated" situation with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Trump openly expressed his dislike for Powell's economic policies, and some of his remarks can even be described as "bombastic". This is actually because Powell insists on an independent economic policy and will not be forced to cut interest rates due to Trump's comments. However, there are rumors that Trump has privately discussed the intention to fire Powell. Although this is not allowed within the U.S. system, the market still shows some concern.

The trend of the U.S. stock market shows signs of risk aversion. Although there was a significant upward movement after a sharp decline, the subsequent trend has been rather sluggish, and the current situation is not very optimistic. From the perspective of funds and confidence, it still belongs to a phase of tight liquidity. However, I believe that since the overall level is low, it’s a matter of whether there will be worse times ahead. From a degree perspective, we are basically at the worst point, and opportunities are appearing, but whether there are better opportunities is unclear.

The market is boring, so let me digress. I don't know if everyone has noticed that in recent times, many so-called "female KOLs" have flooded into the circle, but in reality, they are just using the guise of KOLs to create borderline content. If in the past few years, the increasing number of high-quality women joining the industry somewhat indicates the value discovery of this circle, then the current emergence of bulk "female KOLs" indicates that there is too much hot money in the circle, and they want to quickly reap profits through borderline activities. I don't know how to evaluate this phenomenon; there is a market only when there is demand, and these are just the rules of the market itself.

Cryptocurrency has increasingly gained attention over the past few years and attracted all kinds of people. Objectively speaking, the faith of newcomers is much weaker. Those who entered the market several years ago still held a bit of idealism in their hearts, believing in decentralization and the future of blockchain technology. But now, saying such things might come off as a bit fake or even silly. The crypto space is different from other circles; if it only retains the scent of money, it loses its original meaning and ultimately becomes just another ordinary circle. Therefore, I hope more people can stay true to themselves.

Thank you for your attention.

April 18, 2025

At 5 PM, which is about 1 hour later, there will be a new listing event on the Binance Web3 wallet. As before, participating guarantees a share of the profits, but this time there is an additional requirement: you must have traded alpha tokens. I looked at my account and it was a total loss, so if you are eligible, remember to participate; this time's reward is likely to be quite generous. This requirement is also the strictest we have seen in the past few events. As studios compete for accounts, earnings from single accounts are decreasing, and Binance has gradually raised the bar.

This event is similar to any low-threshold event, starting with a few people showing interest, then once they realize that they can make money, many start to compete for accounts and people, and eventually it becomes thin profit. The same goes for trading; when a coin or sector becomes popular, many people jump in to compete, then profits start to decline, and ultimately there may even be losses, leading to a sector that no one cares about. Personally, whether in trading or work, I do not advocate excessive competition, as I find it too exhausting and not necessarily more profitable.

In fact, in trading, sometimes doing more does not guarantee higher returns. I believe many people may have bought Bitcoin early on; just imagine, if you only need to do the simplest action—hold on, while enjoying life and occasionally checking the market—you would outperform 90% of people in the market. Moreover, those who are keen on trading, without establishing a scientific trading system, might not fare better than those who play with spot trading.

Therefore, I always believe that one should not be overly obsessed with making money, especially with quick short-term gains. The desire can backfire and lead to losses, a lesson I have also learned. In the field of investment, slow is fast. At this stage, we can focus more on things outside the market, manage our spot allocations well, maintain a good mindset, and wait for the market to explode again. We should not be too concerned about short-term fluctuations, as a 50% return in the short term seems like a fantasy, but looking long-term at 3-5 times return is not too difficult.

Thank you for your attention and likes.

April 17, 2025

Powell recently stated that the Federal Reserve will not be influenced by political pressure, implying that Trump's pressure will not work, and it will continue to maintain its independence. After the recent plummet of the U.S. stock market, Trump publicly called for an immediate interest rate cut, which is also one of his political goals to reduce the government's debt interest expenditures. However, after the rise in 10-year Treasury yields, Trump eased his stance in the trade war, temporarily rescuing the U.S. stock market from crisis.

In any financial market, the importance of confidence is self-evident. Once the U.S. stock market is torn open, causing investors to worry about its future trends, it may trigger a chain reaction, leading to a liquidity crisis. After Trump eased the tariff policy, the U.S. stock market got a breather, but I believe the market's confidence has not fully recovered, especially with Trump's many uncertainties; the fleeing capital will not rush to return in the short term, so this risk point will continue for some time.

In terms of market conditions, the volatile trend is nothing special; the market is undergoing a repair, and being able to stabilize is the best outcome. Overall, I believe this price has a very high cost-performance ratio. Of course, the market value of the cryptocurrency market is not very referenceable; it could still drop significantly if it enters a bear phase. Although we are trying to buy the dip on the left side, it doesn’t matter if we haven’t caught the bottom; the core point is to look at the current entry cost and whether there is an expected return of 3-5 times or even 10 times during the bull market's frenzy, or to meet your own expected returns.

Getting through the bear market of the cryptocurrency market is not an easy task, especially for friends who have leveraged; that kind of despair and panic can only be understood by those who have experienced it themselves. Therefore, my advice is that no matter how optimistic you are about the future market, do not leverage. If you want to buy more chips in a bear market, the best way is still to supplement your capital through off-market income to ensure a healthy cash flow for your life or other investment areas, and then orderly buy in the cryptocurrency market.

Thank you for your support. Please click to comment and like this promotional article; I will also add a bit of capital. BSC借贷市场的搅局者