币姥爷
Verified Creator
Open Trade
Frequent Trader
8.1 Years
推特@bilaoye2077，不一样的内容。
49 Following
30.5K+ Followers
34.7K+ Liked
3.3K+ Shared
All
Quotes
See original
PINNED
Summary of Some Content
1、《牛市杀器：资金费率套利介绍》
2、《12月10日与6日暴跌复盘：不容忽视的资金费率及潜在机会》
3、《市场出现一致性看空》
4、《408暴跌之后，币圈是否已严重错杀？》
5、《币姥爷的加密货币交易思维方式》
6、《WLFI套利复盘》
See original
Liquidation amount breaks 10 billion for the first time, risk signal of a bull market appears
September 23, 2025
Noticed a piece of data, which is that during this wave of decline, the contract liquidation amount exceeded 1.7 billion USD, of which 1.62 billion were long positions. This indicates that the majority are long positions, reflecting the current market's FOMO sentiment. Another point worth noting is the 10 billion RMB threshold I mentioned before. This is a rough value summarized from the liquidation amounts in previous bull markets. Although there is no rigorous data reference, exceeding this value is one of the risk signals in a bull market. This is the first time since the market has risen this year that it has breached 10 billion RMB, coinciding with the approach of October, so I believe it is necessary to issue another risk warning.
Noticed a piece of data, which is that during this wave of decline, the contract liquidation amount exceeded 1.7 billion USD, of which 1.62 billion were long positions. This indicates that the majority are long positions, reflecting the current market's FOMO sentiment. Another point worth noting is the 10 billion RMB threshold I mentioned before. This is a rough value summarized from the liquidation amounts in previous bull markets. Although there is no rigorous data reference, exceeding this value is one of the risk signals in a bull market. This is the first time since the market has risen this year that it has breached 10 billion RMB, coinciding with the approach of October, so I believe it is necessary to issue another risk warning.
See original
The Insights and Reflections Aster Gave Me
September 22, 2025
Today I mainly want to talk about Aster. Aster has made a lot of people rich, as the FDV surged to over 15 billion, and even with a few percentage points of airdrop calculation, it directly injected several hundred million dollars worth of chips into the market. Of course, many people sold at a loss, with the initial surge reaching nearly 20 times, greatly exceeding market expectations. As for why many people sold at a loss, those who have used Aster's products know well: it is not worth that price. But the market's valuation system has been reshaped, and the price has soared to such an outrageous degree that I can only say to respect the market. Even if you didn't get on this ride, don't short it.
Today I mainly want to talk about Aster. Aster has made a lot of people rich, as the FDV surged to over 15 billion, and even with a few percentage points of airdrop calculation, it directly injected several hundred million dollars worth of chips into the market. Of course, many people sold at a loss, with the initial surge reaching nearly 20 times, greatly exceeding market expectations. As for why many people sold at a loss, those who have used Aster's products know well: it is not worth that price. But the market's valuation system has been reshaped, and the price has soared to such an outrageous degree that I can only say to respect the market. Even if you didn't get on this ride, don't short it.
See original
First, let's talk about this wave of sharp decline. I have mentioned it many times in the past few days. We are currently in a relatively crazy bull market phase, and the costs of altcoins have skyrocketed. However, each round of altcoin market trends is concentrated on new coins. This wave of Aster market has pushed the Binance-related markets to a high point, so I think the pullback is quite reasonable. Later, I'll write a long article focusing on the inspiration that Aster gave me.
In a sharp decline, what is key to watch? If you want to know the direction of the market, you still need to look at whether Bitcoin breaks down. As for Ethereum, the recent upward momentum is relatively weak, so a pullback is inevitable. Currently, neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum has broken down, and I still see it as a killing of the overheated market. The systemic risk is not large, but in the short term, do not rush to buy in to prevent a second decline. For spot holdings, continue to hold. Those who have high positions can consider taking profits in waves. Do not buy new coins, especially those that have already been listed on exchanges.
In a sharp decline, what is key to watch? If you want to know the direction of the market, you still need to look at whether Bitcoin breaks down. As for Ethereum, the recent upward momentum is relatively weak, so a pullback is inevitable. Currently, neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum has broken down, and I still see it as a killing of the overheated market. The systemic risk is not large, but in the short term, do not rush to buy in to prevent a second decline. For spot holdings, continue to hold. Those who have high positions can consider taking profits in waves. Do not buy new coins, especially those that have already been listed on exchanges.
See original
9.21, today I am looking at the Perp track, while managing the arbitrage position takes a lot of time, I will take a day off. If you have questions about Perp, feel free to leave a message, and I will reply to everyone later.
See original
The golden time left for the market is only 1-2 months
2025-09-20
The market is once again pulling back, and it is still unknown how long the volatile market will last, especially for Ethereum, as the number of participants queuing to stake has not seen a significant increase recently, whereas the number of those queuing to exit remains high. Although this number of exits does not all represent selling pressure, a large part of it should be from staking service providers changing wallets, but I believe that it is likely that the main force will only significantly pump the market after this data is digested or close to being digested.
In terms of timing, next month’s market pump is the most anticipated. If we follow a four-year cycle, there are only a few months left for the market, and the golden time is only 1-2 months. Regardless of everyone’s original positions, the reality we must face is that we are currently in a relatively lively bull market. This is an objective situation, and it does not mean that we should not acknowledge that the previous old altcoins have not risen yet.
The market is once again pulling back, and it is still unknown how long the volatile market will last, especially for Ethereum, as the number of participants queuing to stake has not seen a significant increase recently, whereas the number of those queuing to exit remains high. Although this number of exits does not all represent selling pressure, a large part of it should be from staking service providers changing wallets, but I believe that it is likely that the main force will only significantly pump the market after this data is digested or close to being digested.
In terms of timing, next month’s market pump is the most anticipated. If we follow a four-year cycle, there are only a few months left for the market, and the golden time is only 1-2 months. Regardless of everyone’s original positions, the reality we must face is that we are currently in a relatively lively bull market. This is an objective situation, and it does not mean that we should not acknowledge that the previous old altcoins have not risen yet.
See original
Interest Rate Cut Cycle, Quality Financial Assets at ATH
September 19, 2025 Market Analysis
After the interest rate cut of 25 basis points, the market did not experience any unexpected movements, and the US stock market continues to reach all-time highs. The price of gold is also continuing to set new highs. Throughout the world, risk assets are steadily rising during the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle. Although we know that no asset can rise unilaterally forever, due to the inherent laws of the monetary system, the prices of valuable assets tend to rise in a fluctuating manner over the long term. Anyway, we are currently in an upward cycle of a bull market. Given this, we should not try to guess the top and short the market, but instead embrace the rise, embrace the bubble, and let our U increase amidst the bubble.
After the interest rate cut of 25 basis points, the market did not experience any unexpected movements, and the US stock market continues to reach all-time highs. The price of gold is also continuing to set new highs. Throughout the world, risk assets are steadily rising during the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle. Although we know that no asset can rise unilaterally forever, due to the inherent laws of the monetary system, the prices of valuable assets tend to rise in a fluctuating manner over the long term. Anyway, we are currently in an upward cycle of a bull market. Given this, we should not try to guess the top and short the market, but instead embrace the rise, embrace the bubble, and let our U increase amidst the bubble.
See original
Another ten-thousandfold achievement accomplished, this is the significance of entering the crypto world
September 18, 2025 Market Analysis
BNB officially breaks through the $1000 mark, becoming the latest ten-thousandfold coin, a true ten-thousandfold coin. Eight years ago, Binance launched its initial coin offering platform currency at a subscription price of $0.1. After going online, it once broke below its issue price, but then it rebounded and started a long-term oscillating upward trend that lasted 8 years. Today, it has surpassed $1000, an increase of ten thousand times compared to the issue price. Of course, BNB is not just about the price increase; there are also various rights and benefits from new offerings and airdrops. Therefore, if one holds it now, the returns are far more than ten thousand times. Perhaps not many people can firmly believe it would rise from $1 to now, but there are certainly many who made their first pot of gold in the crypto world with BNB or achieved significant asset appreciation.
BNB officially breaks through the $1000 mark, becoming the latest ten-thousandfold coin, a true ten-thousandfold coin. Eight years ago, Binance launched its initial coin offering platform currency at a subscription price of $0.1. After going online, it once broke below its issue price, but then it rebounded and started a long-term oscillating upward trend that lasted 8 years. Today, it has surpassed $1000, an increase of ten thousand times compared to the issue price. Of course, BNB is not just about the price increase; there are also various rights and benefits from new offerings and airdrops. Therefore, if one holds it now, the returns are far more than ten thousand times. Perhaps not many people can firmly believe it would rise from $1 to now, but there are certainly many who made their first pot of gold in the crypto world with BNB or achieved significant asset appreciation.
See original
Bull Market Can Focus on Steady Alpha Opportunities
September 17, 2025 Market Analysis
The recent new coin market is still quite good. Yesterday, a 200-point account on Binance Alpha could claim 4,000 STBL. Selling at the claimed price is worth 100 USD, and selling now is worth 800 USD. The cost of a 200-point account is less than 50 USD. This is the charm of a bull market. So, there are many opportunities in a bull market, and the market is relatively lively. However, one fact that cannot be ignored is that most of the hotspots are concentrated on new coins. Those old altcoins, especially the ones that were very popular in the last bull market and have not yet started, are basically abandoned by the main players.
The recent new coin market is still quite good. Yesterday, a 200-point account on Binance Alpha could claim 4,000 STBL. Selling at the claimed price is worth 100 USD, and selling now is worth 800 USD. The cost of a 200-point account is less than 50 USD. This is the charm of a bull market. So, there are many opportunities in a bull market, and the market is relatively lively. However, one fact that cannot be ignored is that most of the hotspots are concentrated on new coins. Those old altcoins, especially the ones that were very popular in the last bull market and have not yet started, are basically abandoned by the main players.
See original
The altcoin market has temporarily paused, looking forward to the main market gaining momentum again.
September 16, 2025
Tonight, the interest rate cut data will be released. Currently, the market's pullback has already taken precautions to prevent any sudden situations; in fact, the probability of abnormal data is relatively low. The U.S. stock market continues to perform steadily, constantly refreshing its historical highs, which is quite consistent with the pace of interest rate cuts. Given this premise, the external risks in the cryptocurrency space are not significant.
Recently, I revisited the content of 'Capturing Shadows', which revolves around a bank robbery involving a cryptocurrency worth 500 million dollars. The overall pacing is quite good. This shows that in economically developed areas, cryptocurrency has become a very important emerging asset, increasingly compliant and legal. The current high correlation with the U.S. stock market somewhat indicates this change. This is also why I have emphasized recently that no matter how crazy the market gets, one should always keep some foundational assets on hand.
Tonight, the interest rate cut data will be released. Currently, the market's pullback has already taken precautions to prevent any sudden situations; in fact, the probability of abnormal data is relatively low. The U.S. stock market continues to perform steadily, constantly refreshing its historical highs, which is quite consistent with the pace of interest rate cuts. Given this premise, the external risks in the cryptocurrency space are not significant.
Recently, I revisited the content of 'Capturing Shadows', which revolves around a bank robbery involving a cryptocurrency worth 500 million dollars. The overall pacing is quite good. This shows that in economically developed areas, cryptocurrency has become a very important emerging asset, increasingly compliant and legal. The current high correlation with the U.S. stock market somewhat indicates this change. This is also why I have emphasized recently that no matter how crazy the market gets, one should always keep some foundational assets on hand.
See original
The market slightly adjusted, and some alpha projects plummeted
September 15, 2025 Market Analysis
Starting tomorrow, the latest interest rate meeting will begin, with the latest results expected to be released early the day after tomorrow. The current market expectation is a 25bp rate cut, with a probability exceeding 90%. This rate cut has already been reflected in recent market conditions, so as long as it is not a 50 basis point cut, the market changes will not be significant. As we reach the current stage of the rate cut cycle, the USD interest rates are still not low. If viewed this way, we can only say that the rate cut cycle is halfway through. Many people may wonder whether the cryptocurrency market will continue to develop rather than follow a four-year cycle?
Starting tomorrow, the latest interest rate meeting will begin, with the latest results expected to be released early the day after tomorrow. The current market expectation is a 25bp rate cut, with a probability exceeding 90%. This rate cut has already been reflected in recent market conditions, so as long as it is not a 50 basis point cut, the market changes will not be significant. As we reach the current stage of the rate cut cycle, the USD interest rates are still not low. If viewed this way, we can only say that the rate cut cycle is halfway through. Many people may wonder whether the cryptocurrency market will continue to develop rather than follow a four-year cycle?
See original
The Core of Operations in a Bull Market: Acquiring Low-Cost Chips
September 14, 2025 Market Analysis
I sent a screenshot of the charges received yesterday, and a few people came to privately chat with me about some details. For me, receiving a few hundred U in charges a day is acceptable. When the market is good, the daily charges can exceed four digits in U, which is an important part of my arbitrage income. It is important to note that the charges involve a lot of opening and closing positions, and for larger volumes, you need to find fee rebates (anyone with higher trading fees can contact me). The actual income must deduct fees and wear and tear. Additionally, if dealing with altcoin charges, the price fluctuations are quite large, so the margin needs to be comparatively higher. However, multiple coins can be opened using a combined margin to improve capital efficiency.
I sent a screenshot of the charges received yesterday, and a few people came to privately chat with me about some details. For me, receiving a few hundred U in charges a day is acceptable. When the market is good, the daily charges can exceed four digits in U, which is an important part of my arbitrage income. It is important to note that the charges involve a lot of opening and closing positions, and for larger volumes, you need to find fee rebates (anyone with higher trading fees can contact me). The actual income must deduct fees and wear and tear. Additionally, if dealing with altcoin charges, the price fluctuations are quite large, so the margin needs to be comparatively higher. However, multiple coins can be opened using a combined margin to improve capital efficiency.
See original
Recently, the counterfeit market is quite popular, especially in the alpha sector. From the perspective of costs, it is important to guard against risks.
See original
8 PM:
币姥爷
--
The Surging Ethereum, Yet No Longer the Sole Focus of the Market
September 13, 2025 Market Analysis
Compared to the previous sideways market, today's Ethereum performance is strong, but the market's focus is not limited to Ethereum. Prior to this, BNB continued to refresh its historical high, breaking through the $900 mark, and moving towards four digits. BNB represents the largest exchange's voice and profitability in the crypto market. Undoubtedly, the choice made earlier as an income-generating asset allocation was correct. Additionally, there is SOL, which after the cooling of the MEME market at the beginning of the year, saw its price drop from about $300 to below $100, and today it has risen again to $240. In terms of public blockchain performance, both in ecology and price, SOL is undoubtedly Ethereum's strongest competitor.
Compared to the previous sideways market, today's Ethereum performance is strong, but the market's focus is not limited to Ethereum. Prior to this, BNB continued to refresh its historical high, breaking through the $900 mark, and moving towards four digits. BNB represents the largest exchange's voice and profitability in the crypto market. Undoubtedly, the choice made earlier as an income-generating asset allocation was correct. Additionally, there is SOL, which after the cooling of the MEME market at the beginning of the year, saw its price drop from about $300 to below $100, and today it has risen again to $240. In terms of public blockchain performance, both in ecology and price, SOL is undoubtedly Ethereum's strongest competitor.
See original
The Surging Ethereum, Yet No Longer the Sole Focus of the Market
September 13, 2025 Market Analysis
Compared to the previous sideways market, today's Ethereum performance is strong, but the market's focus is not limited to Ethereum. Prior to this, BNB continued to refresh its historical high, breaking through the $900 mark, and moving towards four digits. BNB represents the largest exchange's voice and profitability in the crypto market. Undoubtedly, the choice made earlier as an income-generating asset allocation was correct. Additionally, there is SOL, which after the cooling of the MEME market at the beginning of the year, saw its price drop from about $300 to below $100, and today it has risen again to $240. In terms of public blockchain performance, both in ecology and price, SOL is undoubtedly Ethereum's strongest competitor.
Compared to the previous sideways market, today's Ethereum performance is strong, but the market's focus is not limited to Ethereum. Prior to this, BNB continued to refresh its historical high, breaking through the $900 mark, and moving towards four digits. BNB represents the largest exchange's voice and profitability in the crypto market. Undoubtedly, the choice made earlier as an income-generating asset allocation was correct. Additionally, there is SOL, which after the cooling of the MEME market at the beginning of the year, saw its price drop from about $300 to below $100, and today it has risen again to $240. In terms of public blockchain performance, both in ecology and price, SOL is undoubtedly Ethereum's strongest competitor.
See original
Tokenization of traditional financial assets is a potential driving force for Ethereum's explosion
September 12, 2025 Market Analysis
Recently, more traditional financial institutions are looking for opportunities in the cryptocurrency space. Conversely, cryptocurrency projects are also starting to shift their focus to traditional financial businesses. According to Bloomberg, BlackRock plans to tokenize its funds that hold global assets and stocks, which continues the push for RWA. Not long ago, ONDO has already started stock tokenization. Although currently, its services are only aimed at institutions, tokenization allows ordinary retail investors to purchase shares of high-quality companies such as Apple, Amazon, and Tesla without needing a US stock account. This even includes third-world countries, as long as you understand on-chain trading.
Recently, more traditional financial institutions are looking for opportunities in the cryptocurrency space. Conversely, cryptocurrency projects are also starting to shift their focus to traditional financial businesses. According to Bloomberg, BlackRock plans to tokenize its funds that hold global assets and stocks, which continues the push for RWA. Not long ago, ONDO has already started stock tokenization. Although currently, its services are only aimed at institutions, tokenization allows ordinary retail investors to purchase shares of high-quality companies such as Apple, Amazon, and Tesla without needing a US stock account. This even includes third-world countries, as long as you understand on-chain trading.
See original
We are in the 'lively' phase of the bull market
September 11, 2025 Market Analysis
I don't know if everyone realizes one thing, which is that we are actually already in a bull market. Although it can't be described as 'frenzied', at least it is at a 'lively' level. Several typical characteristics of a bull market: a large number of tokens being listed on exchanges, intense TGE from project parties, collective price manipulation by whales, and high FOMO sentiment among retail investors. Recently, Binance has clearly accelerated the pace of new spot listings, with Linea going live yesterday. It's worth noting that Linea has been in development for three years as a public chain, but fortunately, the rewards given at the end were quite decent, deserving of those who stuck around to earn. Of course, it’s worth mentioning Binance's alpha; an account with a score of 220 can receive an airdrop reward worth 200 USDT.
I don't know if everyone realizes one thing, which is that we are actually already in a bull market. Although it can't be described as 'frenzied', at least it is at a 'lively' level. Several typical characteristics of a bull market: a large number of tokens being listed on exchanges, intense TGE from project parties, collective price manipulation by whales, and high FOMO sentiment among retail investors. Recently, Binance has clearly accelerated the pace of new spot listings, with Linea going live yesterday. It's worth noting that Linea has been in development for three years as a public chain, but fortunately, the rewards given at the end were quite decent, deserving of those who stuck around to earn. Of course, it’s worth mentioning Binance's alpha; an account with a score of 220 can receive an airdrop reward worth 200 USDT.
See original
Ethereum's Massive Unlocking, Short-term Surge Plans Thwarted
September 10, 2025 Market Analysis
According to reminders in the comments section, there has been an unusually high amount of data recently, specifically that the staking queue for Ethereum has suddenly surged to 2.1 million coins, worth over 9 billion USD. Such a large amount of unlocking is likely an institutional action, and there is currently no on-chain information indicating which institution it is. As the Ethereum market has been continuously affected by this data recently, it is estimated that the plans for another market surge this week or even next week are likely to be thwarted. The main players can continue to buy, but they will definitely hope to wait until this wave of unlocking ends. After all, if they intend to sell, the price will drop significantly.
According to reminders in the comments section, there has been an unusually high amount of data recently, specifically that the staking queue for Ethereum has suddenly surged to 2.1 million coins, worth over 9 billion USD. Such a large amount of unlocking is likely an institutional action, and there is currently no on-chain information indicating which institution it is. As the Ethereum market has been continuously affected by this data recently, it is estimated that the plans for another market surge this week or even next week are likely to be thwarted. The main players can continue to buy, but they will definitely hope to wait until this wave of unlocking ends. After all, if they intend to sell, the price will drop significantly.
Login to explore more contents
Explore the latest crypto news
⚡️ Be a part of the latests discussions in crypto
💬 Interact with your favorite creators
👍 Enjoy content that interests you
Email / Phone number
Trending Topics
BinanceHODLerHEMI
2.1M views
6,581 Discussing
$HEMI Just Recently Got Open On Binanace spot tRading and Its Going Down Pretty Deep.🔻
I would Suggest Guys to buy At Its best Dip and Hold It has potential to reach Up to +0.70$ .
Buy At Perfect Dip Guys.
Buy from here 👉$HEMI 👈 For 0 Commission Fees.
#hemi #BinanceHODLerHEMI #MarketPullback #
TradewithPro2
6 Likes
2.7k views
DogecoinETFProgress
2.4M views
6,218 Discussing
PerpDEXRace
73,610 views
492 Discussing