August 20, 2025 Market Analysis
The market continues to pull back, and Ethereum has fallen below $4200. However, by the time I wrote this article, it had almost recovered. If it can stabilize at $4200, then the short-term trend still aligns with my judgment. As I mentioned yesterday: $4200 has support, but it may briefly drop below this level in the short term. The hourly candlestick trend is still maintaining a downward trend, especially since the support strength at $4200 is not very strong. The real strong support is at the lower level of around $3600. Therefore, if this downward channel is not broken, it is indeed possible for it to fall below $4000. From an hourly perspective, Ethereum needs to rebound and stabilize above $4400 to break this adjustment trend. Thus, I must admit that the next few days will still favor the bears.
The number of Ethereum being queued for withdrawal from staking is still 900,000, which is the peak since Ethereum transitioned to PoS. This indicates that investors' panic is not low. This kind of panic is different from the experience during downturns, as there is more concern about profit shrinkage. On the other hand, several Ethereum micro-strategy companies are continuing to buy. The big player BNMR bought 370,000 coins in the past week, while SBET also purchased 140,000 coins. This is a classic 'mutual SB' moment, but the parties involved have changed to traditional large holders of ETH and U.S. stock market institutions.
Although Ethereum is still in a retracement trend, I tend to remain bullish, as time is still on our side. The reason I say that the second half of the year may present a huge opportunity is that this time, U.S. stock market funds are buying Ethereum. The two companies, BNMR and SBET, have been able to raise new funds, and regardless of the method, they are optimistic about Ethereum, which is equivalent to indirectly holding ETH. There have been a few similar situations in the past, such as Grayscale's trust and spot ETFs, and I won't talk about BTC here. The energy of U.S. stock market funds can be seen in these instances. Ethereum's current market value does not yet rank among high-tech companies, but I believe it is very likely to achieve this in the second half of the year, as long as U.S. stock market funds continue to flow in. Therefore, the upcoming targets of $8000 to $10,000 are still promising. The reason I mention U.S. stock market funds is based on the market value and liquidity of BNMR and SBET. For BNMR, raising $20 billion in new financing is really not that difficult.
Finally, I want to say that the cryptocurrency space has already moved away from its early chaotic days. There are fewer and fewer projects that can achieve high multiples of growth. Instead, after institutions have entered the market, the landscape is filled with opportunities for profit. Ethereum is the most significant potential opportunity in the second half of the year, representing a chance for large funds to double. Of course, no one dares to say it's absolute, but looking at the current cryptocurrency space, I truly see no better candidate than Ethereum. I myself started buying below $3000, with an average cost of just over $2000. I know many people have also persevered through this. If the average selling price does not reach 2-3 times, to be honest, it would be quite disappointing, after all, this is Ethereum.
Thank you for your attention and likes. #ETH质押退出动态观察
