1. Market Observation
The US producer price index (PPI) for July brought inflation pressures that exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year rate of 3.3%, far above the expected value of 2.5%. The month-on-month increase of 0.9% set a three-year high. This data significantly dampened market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September, although CME FedWatch data still shows a rate cut probability of over 85%. Bank of America issued a warning that a Fed rate cut during an inflationary cycle could recreate the 'deadly combination' scenario that significantly weakened the dollar from 2007 to 2008.
Regarding Bitcoin, its price retraced to around $117,200 after exceeding the $124,000 high yesterday, briefly surpassing Google's market cap, and the total global cryptocurrency market cap also briefly exceeded $4.18 trillion. Crypto Chase views $117,000 as a key support level and believes that if this level cannot be maintained, the strong upward trend in the market may temporarily stall. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly indicated that Bitcoin may oscillate in the range of $119,000 to $117,500 in the short term, and if it breaks below the $112,000 support level, the price may further retrace to the $105,000 to $110,000 range. Analyst CJ believes Bitcoin may retrace to $112,000, or even further down to $109,700 or $107,000 before rebounding back to the $112,000 range. He suggests paying attention to the range of $114,000 to $115,700, and if it can stabilize at this position, a surge towards $130,000 is expected. BitMEX's technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin may currently form a double top pattern, with the MACD indicator showing a bearish divergence, and the key support level around $112,000. If it breaks below this level, the price may further decline. However, Placeholder partner Chris Burniske has provided an optimistic forecast, suggesting that Bitcoin is likely to reach around $142,690 in October. From a historical pattern perspective, analyst Benjamin Cowen points out that Bitcoin typically follows a pattern of summer rises, September corrections, and peaks in the fourth quarter after halving, but trader Kale Abe counters that market trends depend more on the funding situation of Bitcoin reserve companies.
Ethereum was just $12 away from $4,800 yesterday, only a step away from its historical high. However, with the release of the PPI data, Ethereum retraced to around $4,450 at its lowest. Technical analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Ethereum needs to turn $4,631 into a support level to confirm further price increases, or it may retrace to the $4,000 level of the weekly CME gap, or even touch the $3,750 area. Analyst Block Diversity also noted that Ethereum may adjust within the $4,000 to $4,400 demand range before facing the next wave of upward momentum. Man of Bitcoin's analysis shows that $4,158 is a key support level, and as long as the price stays above this level, further increases are still possible. On a higher time frame, Standard Chartered Bank stated that Ethereum is expected to break the historical high of $4,866 in Q3 and has significantly raised its end-of-year price target to $7,500. Analyst Duo Nine believes that once Ethereum breaks $5,000, it will enter a price discovery phase, potentially rising to $7,000 or even higher. Chris Burniske predicts Ethereum's price range in October to be between $6,900 and $8,000. Additionally, Polymarket data shows that the market predicts a 64% chance of it breaking $5,000 by the end of August, with a probability of reaching a historical high as high as 87%. However, CryptoQuant data indicates that Ethereum has surpassed Bitcoin in the growth rate of trading volume and open interest, but has also observed an increase in the daily influx of ETH to exchanges, which may indicate that some selling pressure is forming.
Additionally, HashKey's chief analyst, Jeffrey Ding, has shown strong confidence in Ethereum's future performance. He pointed out that due to the upcoming Pectra and Fusaka upgrades, the likelihood of Ethereum breaking its historical high in the second half of 2025 has significantly increased. The Pectra upgrade will lower L2 costs and optimize user experience through account abstraction and blob throughput improvements, thereby accelerating the adoption of DeFi and RWA applications. The Fusaka upgrade, expected to launch in Q4, will introduce PeerDAS technology, further enhancing data availability and network decentralization. These technological advancements, combined with the synergistic effects of AI and zero-knowledge proof technologies, are expected to drive the continuous expansion of Ethereum's network TVL, strengthen its value storage attributes, and support prices moving above $5,000.
In the altcoin market, Coinbase analysis indicates a decline in Bitcoin's market cap share, while the total market cap of altcoins has grown by 50% since early July, suggesting that an 'altcoin season' may fully arrive in September. Specifically, BNB's price broke above $865 to a historic high yesterday alongside Bitcoin's new high, and SKALE has surged over 120% since integrating It Remains on August 13, even rising nearly 50% despite the general decline in altcoins yesterday.
2. Key Data (As of August 15, 12:00 HKT)
(Data Source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $118,952 (Year-to-date +27.02%), Daily Spot Trading Volume: $65.176 billion
Ethereum: $4,629.73 (Year-to-date +38.53%), Daily Spot Trading Volume: $67.165 billion
Fear & Greed Index: 60 (Greed)
Average GAS: BTC: 3 sat/vB, ETH: 0.34 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 13.8%
Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: ETH, XRP, SOL, BTC, ADA
24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 49.1%/50.9%
Sector Performance: The crypto market has faced setbacks across the board, with the Meme sector leading the decline at 8.98%, and the NFT sector down 8.19%.
24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 217,316 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $1 billion, including $175 million in BTC, $344 million in ETH, and $63.72 million in SOL.
BTC Medium-Long Term Trend Channel: Upper Bound (119,225.39 USD), Lower Bound (116,864.49 USD)
ETH Medium-Long Term Trend Channel: Upper Bound (4,240.44 USD), Lower Bound (4,156.47 USD)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium- to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (As of August 14)
Bitcoin ETF: +$231 million, sustained 7-day net inflow
Ethereum ETF: +$640 million, sustained 8-day net inflow
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha will launch TCOM Global (TCOM) and PublicAI (PUBLIC) on August 15.
The remaining TIA acquired by the Celestia Foundation for $62.5 million will be unlocked on August 16.
Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock approximately 1.67 million tokens on August 15 at 8 AM, accounting for 0.51% of the current circulation, valued at about $39.2 million.
Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens on August 15 at 8 PM, accounting for 1.21% of the current circulation, valued at about $17.5 million.
Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens on August 15 at 8 AM, accounting for 5.98% of the current circulation, valued at about $16.8 million.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens on August 16, accounting for 2.04% of the current circulation, valued at about $41.9 million.
Today’s Top 100 Market Cap Largest Declines: Conflux down 11.6%, Curve DAO down 10.7%, dogwifhat down 10.7%, OKB down 10.1%, Worldcoin down 10%
5. Hot News
A new wallet withdrew 53,434 ETH from Kraken in the past 2 days, valued at $244 million.
The SEC has postponed the decision on Bitwise and 21Shares' Solana ETF proposal to October 16.
Sequans plans to acquire 100,000 bitcoins by 2030.
Dinari will launch a blockchain based on Avalanche, positioned as 'stock token DTCC'.
BtcTurk is suspected to have been hacked, with approximately $48 million in crypto assets unusually moved.
The US July PPI year-on-year rate reached 3.3%, the highest level in three years, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.5%.
The LIP-021 proposal has been approved, and Lista DAO will destroy 20% of its tokens.
bitFlyer and Binance have staked a total of 320,000 ETH, with a total value of approximately $1.51 billion.
Jeff's Brands announces the launch of an AI-powered cryptocurrency treasury plan, intending to invest $75 million.
Standard Chartered Bank has raised its end-of-year price target for Ethereum to $7,500, expecting it to break the historical high of $4,866 in Q3.
This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets, dedicated to setting new benchmarks for compliance, fund security, and platform protection in virtual asset exchanges.
