“Breaking below 3.1: Hell or Bottom Fishing Paradise? XRP Long and Short Orders Crush with 2.4x Leverage, LVN Gap at 3 Dollars Life-and-Death Battle!”

【Quick Summary】

XRP is performing a textbook-style bottom exploration of “volume drop + contract reduction”: the price has dropped to the lower edge of the 2-week VPVR value area, oversold with a 24 RSI and 2.42x buy orders facing off, a short-term “short covering” rebound may be on the horizon, but LVN 2.73-2.78 remains the last defense line for bears.

【Key Interval Structure】

1. Value Anchoring Area: POC=3.268, upper HVN 3.278-3.287, lower HVN 3.066-3.076, forming the main battlefield of the day.

2. 70% Volume Coverage Area: 2.990-3.297, current price 3.081 is close to the lower edge, on the verge of “mildly oversold.”

3. LVN Gap: 2.730-2.780 has thin trading volume; if it breaks down with volume, it will trigger a quick drop to the previous low of 2.59; conversely, if it recovers above 3.00 with volume, it can be seen as a false break.

4. Momentum Verification: POC area Up Volume 57%, HVN 3.066 area Down Volume 52%, bulls and bears are temporarily balanced; LVN area Down Volume 68%, bears still dominate.

【Market Cycle】

Mid-term: After a 449% surge since the beginning of the year, it entered a high position wide fluctuation, with contract holdings reducing by 1 billion USDT within 30 days, belonging to the mid-term correction phase of “capital withdrawal + price pullback” in a bull market, not yet turning bearish.

【Trading Strategy】

• Aggressive: Buy 30% of the position when the price pulls back to the inside of HVN 3.066 between 3.081-3.070, and a bullish candle appears at the 15-minute level with Up Volume > 55%.

• Conservative: Wait for the price to retest LVN 2.78-2.73, and a long lower shadow Pin Bar appears with volume ≥ 1.3 times the average of the previous 20 candles, buy 50% of the position.

• Stop-loss: Aggressive order below 2.99 at HVN outer edge; conservative order at 2.69 (LVN outer edge + 0.5×ATR 0.04).

• Targets: First target POC 3.268, second target 3.35-3.40 (upper HVN).

• Risk-Reward Ratio: Aggressive order (3.268-3.081)/(3.081-2.99)=2.1; conservative order (3.268-2.78)/(2.78-2.69)=5.4.

【Risk Warning】

If the daily close falls below 2.73 and contract holdings continue to decline > 3%, the strategy becomes ineffective, and short to 2.59.

【LP Market Making Interval】

It is recommended to provide concentrated liquidity on Uniswap V3 in the range of 2.99-3.30, utilizing the high turnover of the 70% volume coverage area, avoiding the LVN gap of 2.73-2.78 below, with a stop-loss set at 2.95.

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