SOL is sliding from a high position into the 178 dollar high transaction zone, RSI is oversold, and contract funds are continuously fleeing, resembling a spring being compressed to the limit—once buying pressure returns, the rebound speed may be faster than the decline.
Key Range Structure and Trading Volume Distribution
1. Value Anchor Zone: POC = 178.05, with 104 million units traded in the past two weeks, it is the last 'psychological defense line' for bulls.
2. High Volume Node (HVN):
• 176.60-178.41: Two layers of 'buffer pads', prices are very likely to experience a 1-3% rapid rebound here.
• 193.23: Upper trapped peak, likely to face resistance if rebounding to this point.
3. Low Volume Node (LVN):
• 155.63-160.69: If 178 is lost, prices may 'vacuum' drop to this range.
• 206.25-209.87: Upward vacuum zone, once breaking through 193 will accelerate towards 210.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Zone: 167.20-202.64; the current price of 192.57 is slightly below the mid-axis of this zone, not extremely oversold or overbought, but close to the lower bound, leaning towards a bullish rebound window.
5. Momentum Verification: Up Volume around 178 accounts for 48%, not yet dominated by bulls, but Down Volume has decreased for three consecutive bars, showing a decline in selling pressure.
6. Indicator Coordination:
• 1h MA200 = 183.23, price deviation +5.1%, the deviation is too large, indicating a need for a return.
• The lower Bollinger Band at 185.54 has been breached, short-term 'false drop' probability is high.
• 24h contract holdings +0.71%, but the long-short ratio has risen from 2.96 to 3.24, bulls have not exited, waiting for a trigger.
Market Cycle Judgment
The medium term remains in an upward channel (14d increase of 18.4%), and the short-term pullback is a healthy consolidation in a bull market, oscillating between 178-202.
Trading Strategy (Based on VPVR Range Structure)
Aggressive: Place a limit buy order at the current price of 192.6±0.5, stop loss at 190.0 (below HVN + 0.5×ATR≈2.2), target 197.2/202.6, risk-reward ratio ≈3.1.
Conservative: Enter when a pullback to 178.1-178.5 occurs and 15m Up Volume > 60%, stop loss at 175.0, target 193.2, risk-reward ratio ≈4.0.
Cautious: If the volume breaks below 175, go short, stop loss at 178.5, target 160.7, risk-reward ratio ≈4.2.
Risk Warning: If the 1h closing price is below 175 and holdings continue to decline >1%, the bullish strategy becomes invalid.
LP Market Making Suggestions
It is recommended to place concentrated orders in the 178.0-193.2 range for market making:
• Place buy orders at 178-182, with a deep reference to POC;
• Place sell orders at 190-193, corresponding to the upper HVN.
The range width is approximately 8%, with dense trading and moderate volatility, allowing for dual-side fees and capturing range regression profits.
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$SOL#美国7月PPI年率高于预期
