SOLV 0.0415" Ice Point Price": Shorts Have Crashed -73%, Value Anchor 0.042 Is Awaiting Return! Missed the Rebound or Wait Another Year?

【Quick Overview】

When the price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, contract funds have net outflow of 190 million, and the holding cost has completely lost ground, SOLV is staging the "last drop"—while the substantial turnover in the value anchor zone of 0.042 is quietly setting up for a short-term 8% mean reversion.

【Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution】

1. Value Anchor Zone (POC): 0.0420-0.0421, 20-day transaction of 387 million pieces, Up/Down≈51:49, balanced long and short, is the short-term "fair price".

2. High Volume Node (HVN):

• 0.0416-0.0417: Buffer zone, high probability of quick recovery after breaking down.

• 0.0422-0.0423: First resistance for a rebound, previously saw a turnover of 200 million pieces.

3. Low Volume Gap (LVN):

• 0.0405-0.0409: Four-tier vacuum, breaking down accelerates to 0.0385.

4. 70% Volume Coverage Area: 0.0416-0.0450, current price is at the lower edge, technically slightly oversold.

5. Momentum Verification: Up Volume above POC is 51%, not yet >60%, need to wait for volume confirmation.

6. Auxiliary Signal: MA200 deviation -3.6%, lower Bollinger Band 0.04155; OI increased slightly by 0.05% in 24h, but long to short ratio is 1.02→1.01, shorts slightly dominant; nearly 30,000 sell orders on the order book, short-term pressure.

【Market Cycle】

In the "Final Segment of Downward Consolidation"—weekly decline for 12 consecutive weeks, contract funds continue to flow out, but spot chips have started to flow back in the last two weeks (+898k/24h), indicating the end of selling pressure.

【Trading Strategy】

• Aggressive: Light long positions near the current price of 0.0415, stop loss at 0.0404 (lower edge of LVN), target 0.0421 (POC)/0.0428 (upper HVN), risk-reward ratio 1:2.3.

• Conservative: Wait for volume to return to 0.0416-0.0417 HVN inner side and 15m Up Volume >60% before entering, stop loss at 0.0413, same target, risk-reward ratio 1:1.8.

• Cautious: If it first breaks down 0.0405, go short, stop loss at 0.0410, target 0.0385, risk-reward ratio 1:2.1.

Risk Warning: If the price closes below 0.0405 on the 1h or Up Volume drops below 40%, the long strategy will be invalid.

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