“After a sharp drop of 7.3%, can TREE rebound to 0.40 USD?”
【Summary】
TREE has seen a substantial volume drop in the last 24 hours, with three consecutive decreases in contract holdings. The price is now close to the two-week value area bottom of 0.40, and a short-term 'short covering' rebound may occur. However, the massive selling pressure above 0.43 to 0.45 hangs like a sword over both bulls and bears, necessitating quick entries and exits.
【Key Interval Structure】
1. Value Anchoring Area: POC 0.40755 (maximum transactions, long and short balanced), with 0.414 as the lower Bollinger Band above, and 0.4011 as the interval bottom below.
2. High Volume Area: HVN-1 0.39465 to 0.4011 (buffer), HVN-2 0.42045 to 0.4269 (strong resistance).
3. Low Volume Gap: Currently, there are no significant LVNs, with sparse transactions in the 0.36 to 0.38 area. If it breaks below 0.394, it will quickly slide towards 0.36.
4. 70% Volume Coverage: 0.304 to 0.859, with the current price at 0.403 being close to the lower edge, indicating short-term oversold conditions.
Momentum Verification
• Up/Down Volume near POC is 57:43, slightly leaning towards bullish; Up/Down in HVN-2 area is 51:49, with bulls and bears in a stalemate.
• Volume: The volume near POC has decreased by 18% over the last two days, indicating a waning selling momentum; the volume in HVN-2 has increased by 22%, marking a potential short defense line.
【Market Cycle】
In the medium term, it remains in a bearish downward channel (14-day drop of 18%), but in the short term, it has entered the 'panic end' phase. Combined with a very low funding rate of 0.00005 and an increase in short positions, a short covering window exists.
【Trading Strategy】
1. Short-term Rebound
• Entry: 0.401 to 0.404 (close to POC and the lower Bollinger Band; re-enter when a 15m bullish candle shows Up Volume > 60%).
• Stop Loss: 0.394 (lower edge of HVN-1 - 0.5×ATR ≈ 0.008).
• Target: 0.421 (lower edge of HVN-2), with a risk-reward ratio ≈ (0.421-0.403)/(0.403-0.394)=2.0.
2. Breakout of the Range
• If the 1-hour volume drops below 0.394, chase the shorts to 0.365 to 0.370 (buy wall at 0.3655), with a stop loss at 0.400.
Risk Warning: If 0.394 is lost and contract holdings continue to decline > 2%, the bearish momentum will persist; macro black swan events or negative news regarding the TREE project will directly breach 0.36.
Like and follow for real-time updates!
Thanks to “Silicon-Based Liquidity” for providing the foundational large model!
Use the invitation code to get 20 million tokens: 6uXvHFfr
