Fundamental Situation
1. Bitcoin's market capitalization has successfully surpassed that of Google, rising to fifth place in the global asset market capitalization ranking, and the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market has exceeded $4.2 trillion.
2. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Goolsbee stated that if the job market shows a significant decline, interest rate cuts will become an inevitable measure; if inflation is judged to be moving towards the 2% target, then an early rate cut is also very likely.
Block Inc. plans to issue $2.2 billion in senior bonds, surpassing the previously announced $1.5 billion. The company has been integrating Bitcoin trading features into its Cash App and has publicly reported the proportion of Bitcoin revenue multiple times in its financial reports. As a representative enterprise in the field of Web2 and Web3 payment integration, Block's successful financing indicates that the recognition of crypto payments and settlements within the industry has improved, and the development space has further expanded. This may prompt a short-term capital flow back into Bitcoin and its ecosystem coins (such as inscriptions, public chains, and payment-related coins).
Technical Analysis
BTC: After falling to $112,000 at the beginning of this month, it has started a new round of trend-driven increases, currently reaching a new high. Investors who still hold a bearish outlook should recognize the situation. The target for this phase of the increase still looks towards around $135,000, while the market's talk of $150,000 to $200,000 depends on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The daily chart has once again expanded significantly, forming a large bullish candlestick and setting a new historical high. Based on the pattern of previous phase increases this year, after reaching a new high, the market could potentially rise another 10,000 points, so aiming for $135,000 seems reasonable. The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross and continues to diverge upwards, with the histogram expanding continuously and showing strong momentum. However, yesterday's significant rise has created a gap in the daily technical analysis, so while the market continues to look bullish, one should be cautious of a potential pullback of around 3,000 points for correction. The 4-hour chart has seen continuous volume increases since the US market opened, and after a morning surge, it slightly retraced, with a long upper shadow formed at a high position. The market may pull back to around $122,000. For intraday operations, focus on the support at $122,000 - $121,000 for bullish opportunities; above, pay attention to the $124,000 - $125,000 range.
ETH: On Monday this week, it was mentioned that Ethereum is expected to challenge around 4,800 points, and within just four days, this target has been achieved. After consolidating at the 4,150 point level for two days, there has been a significant increase over the next two days, about to break the historical high. The moving averages below are showing a standard bullish arrangement, and the slope is increasing, indicating that the upward momentum is accelerating. Recently, the trading volume has continued to expand, surpassing the average volume line, indicating that there is capital actively pushing prices upwards. The candlestick pattern has shown consecutive long bullish candles, with the center of gravity continuously rising, indicating an accelerating upward phase. However, from yesterday's volume, although the volume has reached a new high, the price increase has started to shrink, which indicates some short-term profit-taking. If a large bearish candle with a long upper shadow appears, one should be wary of the risk of a short-term pullback. The 4-hour chart has seen an increase in volume since Tuesday when the US market opened, breaking through the previous highs and continuing to rise, but the rate of increase has started to diminish, which also reflects some profit-taking. Nonetheless, it cannot dampen the market's enthusiasm. The bullish outlook remains unchanged, but the important defensive zone below is at the 4,600 - 4,570 range. For intraday operations, focus on bullish opportunities at the support levels of 4,720 and 4,640, with attention on the levels of 4,800 and 4,850 above.
Altcoins: In this round of the market, Ethereum leads the way, driving bullish sentiment in the market. From the market performance early in the morning, it can be seen that the market rotation has begun to shift towards Bitcoin and its related ecosystems. Bitcoin has set a new high, and its related ecosystems are also becoming active. The Audi and SATS in the inscription sector are worth paying attention to; the Web3 payment sector may be favored by the market, with XLM having the potential for a sustained upward move to new highs; public chains and L2 ecosystems, especially the leading L2 coin ARB, have seen significant increases, and other popular coins in the same sector should also be closely monitored.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; caution is required when entering the market. The above is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice; it is for sharing and communication purposes only.