Fundamentals:
1. The U.S. CPI year-on-year rate for the end of July was 2.7%, failing to meet the expected 2.8%. This is the first effective suppression of inflation since Trump implemented tariff policies. As a result, the probability of the Federal Reserve taking rate cuts in September has risen to 93.4%.
2. The total amount of U.S. national debt has unprecedentedly surpassed 37 trillion dollars, indicating that the ratio of U.S. debt to GDP is approaching or even exceeding historical danger zones (around 120% and above), and doubts about its long-term repayment ability are beginning to emerge in the market. Government spending remains high, while tax revenues are falling short, and it is very likely that more debt will be issued in the future. Current interest rates are at high levels (the Federal Reserve has not yet made any significant rate cuts), and interest expenses are nearing military spending levels, which will force future monetary policy to tilt towards easing. The larger the debt scale, the higher the likelihood of “printing money to repay debt” in the future. Assets like BTC and ETH, which are considered to have “anti-inflation” properties, are expected to attract medium- to long-term funds for allocation. However, in the short term, this may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates earlier, leading to a wave of “risk aversion” sentiment.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: As mentioned clearly yesterday, although the market experienced a high followed by a pullback the day before, it ultimately closed with a long upper shadow bearish candle, the performance that day was characterized by a surge in volume followed by a decrease in volume during the pullback. This indicates that there was no large-scale selling pressure at high levels, confirming a pullback after a breakout. Currently, from the daily perspective, there is a healthy upward trend, with the K-line oscillating upward along the lower moving average. The rise yesterday was accompanied by moderate volume, and the K-line closed with a solid bullish candle, indicating strong willingness from bulls to take over. The current MACD indicator's fast and slow lines formed a golden cross above the zero axis and are diverging upwards, with the histogram continuously increasing in volume. There is still considerable space above the indicators, and it's only a matter of time before Bitcoin breaks new highs; the target for this round of rise still looks towards around 135K. From the 4-hour line perspective, the pullback to the 1185 position yesterday formed structural support, which can be used as a defensive line for short-term long positions during the day. In terms of daily operations, focus on the support at 119 - 118K positions below to look for bullish opportunities, with the upper targets at 120.5K and then 121.5K.
ETH: It was mentioned this past Monday that Ethereum is expected to challenge the 4800 mark, and now it is just over a hundred points away from this target, making its achievement imminent. After a slight adjustment over the past two days, the technical gap has been repaired, and the daily line overall shows a healthy upward trend, nearing historical highs. Coupled with yesterday's volume surge, there may be a slowdown or even stagnation in the short term. However, there is no need for panic; it is essential to remember that after a significant rise, any adjustments are merely technical phase adjustments and will not lead to a direct crash. Before a significant decline, there will inevitably be a phase of high-level sell-offs, which also requires time. The 4-hour line saw a surge in volume during last night's U.S. trading session, closing with a solid bullish candle, and the market continues to rise, albeit at a reduced rate. The phase low points are also slowly elevating to 4380 - 4480 - 4580. In daily operations, focus on the support at the 4580 - 4480 positions below, and pay attention to the resistance at the 4780 - 4840 positions above.
Altcoins: Last night's live session provided a detailed analysis; the siphoning effect in the current market is very evident, with mainstream coins attracting a lot of capital. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is 4 trillion, with the market capitalizations of BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, and others accounting for over 82% of the total market cap, while the total number of assets in the crypto market exceeds 40,000. In the absence of outside capital entering the market, and with mainstream coins not entering a high-level oscillation phase, altcoins find it very difficult to obtain the necessary funds for a rally. Currently, the situation for altcoins is similar to September and October of last year, with mainstream coins rising continuously while altcoins keep setting new lows. In the face of the booming mainstream market, do not let trading emotions cloud your judgment; altcoins will eventually have their time to rise. This could be either due to the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, allowing outside funds to enter the market and drive prices up, or a portion of profits being taken from mainstream coins, leading to funds flowing into the altcoin market. In such a market environment, only by calmly analyzing the currently high-interest sectors that are actively discussed can one have the opportunity to achieve returns exceeding the market average. Ethereum, as a popular asset this year, will drive interest in its related ecosystem, especially in the L2 expansion and staking derivatives sectors, which present opportunities for catch-up; the heat around AI remains strong, and DePIN has attracted capital due to its practical applications; the expansion trend of the Bitcoin ecosystem is very evident, especially as inscriptions have sparked a wave of tokenization; as for the MEME sector, speculative sentiment is released the fastest but also retraces significantly, making it suitable for short-term quick trades. Specific assets will not be detailed here; everyone is welcome to participate in discussions actively.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, so caution is advised before entering the market. The above is merely personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, only for reference and sharing.